WI: A NATO Invasion of Eastern Europe '89-91?

Many '80s World War III stories go the same way: soviets think the time has come to invade western Europe and pull a fast one on NATO, NATO gets pushed to [insert german river name], then launches a counter attack that succeeds because quality trumps quantity or something. There's a coup in the USSR, they surrender and NATO soldiers are left to ponder the future.

Say NATO decides that they intervene in a crackdown in the DDR or tensions rachet up to the point where the decision is made to launch a Desert Storm style armoured blitzkreig through the Fulda Gap? Would the whole rotten structure collapse or NATO be trying to perform Barbarossa 2: Perestroika Boogaloo?
 
Russia might rally around its leaders. Other WP countries might not be keen on NATO invading (even for "liberation" purposes) their territory and fighting on their soil. Especially if Germans are actively involved.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Apart from the political suicide NATO would be committing this way lets just concentrate on the military aspect
The comparison with gulf war which I see frequently made is totally flawed IMHO.Even in the terrible state they were in 1991 the soviets were not like Saddam's army even putting aside the nuclear factor.
 
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Nuclear immediately. Conventionally the WP stands no chance. They were inferior in quality of tanks, planes, training... and 50 to 60% of the existing equipment was trash.
 
NATO did not do this in 1953 (Berlin) 1956 (Hungary) 1986 (Prague) 1981 (Martial Law in Poland). Why would NATO suddenly invade in 1989. Remember also that the US President in 1989 was George HW Bush (the consummate cold warrior; status quo guy).
 
Even if, by the grace of the nonexistent gods, this doesn't go nuclear, it would justify everything the Soviets have ever said about the West, at least in their own eyes.
 
I love late 80s/early 90s WW3 scenarios, although I agree with others. Why would such an attack take place? I assume we’re going with a “No Gorbachev” timeline and Warsaw Pact uprisings are met with a crackdown from Soviet troops?

Maybe this might work in a hypothetical No Gorbachev timeline where the USSR lasts until the late 90s: give more time for the USSR to deteriorate in the mid to late 90s whilst some sort of violence breaks out in the WP. Even then, I’m sure the USSR would just use battlefield nukes on NATO.
 
Yep... IMHO getting NATO nations to agree to such a course of action is highly unlikely. The "why would NATO do this" question is in my view a more interesting question than the "what would happen if NATO did this" question.

Indeed, not only the theoritical "why" (as on paper, we could surely find some reasons of "why NATO would attack Soviets", even if at this time it seems silly as USSR is already crumbling so better to let it fall on its own). But also the more practical "How did NATO nations managed to agree to it and coordinate themselves for such an attack".
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Nuclear immediately. Conventionally the WP stands no chance. They were inferior in quality of tanks, planes, training... and 50 to 60% of the existing equipment was trash.
A lot of NATO equipment esp that is non-US is not top notch either and pretty comparable to WP e.g the biggest ally on the southern front is Turkey still using a lot of F4 and f104


Problem is NATO doctrine has been defensive for decades , how will they switch to a offensive role ?
 
In 89 they were already at counter offensives. The only possible scenario for this I can see is a really cruel repression of the Monday demonstrations with a couple thousand dead. But then it will most likely by the Red Army pretty much alone and conventionally they were outnumbered by the Bundeswehr alone.
 
I was a fairly gung-ho, keep the commie hoards from taking over the world, member of the US Navy during 89-91. If you had told me I had to put my life on the line to INVADE the WP, I might have called in sick. US military is not a bunch of idiots. We’d have been, ever heard of Napoleon, Hitler? There is virtually no way that NATO would have ever invaded the WP. Plus you just don’t start an invasion without prep. Would be RSR the other way. The WP would have known something was up.
 
I was a fairly gung-ho, keep the commie hoards from taking over the world, member of the US Navy during 89-91. If you had told me I had to put my life on the line to INVADE the WP, I might have called in sick. US military is not a bunch of idiots. We’d have been, ever heard of Napoleon, Hitler? There is virtually no way that NATO would have ever invaded the WP. Plus you just don’t start an invasion without prep. Would be RSR the other way. The WP would have known something was up.

And had the USA being affected by Magical Mass Idiocy, then West Germany, UK and France (and likely other countries) would have been like "Nope".
 
From a purely military perspective, it's doable if we ignore the nukes, but the casualty rates will make Western Europe look fondly upon the first two World Wars, to say nothing of the Americans. Once we factor in the political angle though? The impossibility would probably drive the strategic planners of the campaign insane.
 
Also, if we somehow handwave the WMDs, NATO would likely win the conventional war (at great cost)... But the guerilla and occupation would make Afghanistan look like a walk in the park.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
From a purely military perspective, it's doable if we ignore the nukes, but the casualty rates will make Western Europe look fondly upon the first two World Wars, to say nothing of the Americans. Once we factor in the political angle though? The impossibility would probably drive the strategic planners of the campaign insane.
I'm sure it was wargamed
What was the level of attrition that was expected ?
 

Khanzeer

Banned
I was a fairly gung-ho, keep the commie hoards from taking over the world, member of the US Navy during 89-91. If you had told me I had to put my life on the line to INVADE the WP, I might have called in sick. US military is not a bunch of idiots. We’d have been, ever heard of Napoleon, Hitler? There is virtually no way that NATO would have ever invaded the WP. Plus you just don’t start an invasion without prep. Would be RSR the other way. The WP would have known something was up.
Liberating eastern Europe is not the same as conquering European part of Russia
 
Liberating eastern Europe is not the same as conquering European part of Russia
You are exactly correct, they are not the same. But since the post said,”Would the whole rotten structure collapse or NATO be trying to perform Barbarossa 2: Perestroika Boogaloo?” I thought a reference to Barbarossa 1 and another invasion of Russia might be appropriate.
 
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