WI: A More Virulent Plague

So, Europeans, Asians, and Africans seem to be somewhat protected from diseases with horrifically high kill rates purely by living on the largest landmass. But, this flies in the face of the logic that diseases become less deadly over time, not more. Hmmm. I guess this boils down to one question I have: Is a new disease likely to have a 90% kill rate upon first appearance in humans, or does it have to first inhabit a large number a people before being exposed to isolated people in order to be that destructive?

With very high kill rates you should not forget the mechanism of natural selection, in such cases the survivors probably had some kind of genetic advantages that gave them a better chance. So over the time the population would become more resistent against a certain mode of attack.

I don't know if the genetic make up of the native americans vs the aboriginals was of influence on the different lethality of diseases, but i could imagine it also played a role.
 
my situation would have massive death rates, but the areas hardest hit would be the places the Mongols went, so Western Europe and Japan might actually not be wipped from existance... China, Persia, Russia, and Central Asia would die laughing or possibly screaming (prions can make you do either or both).

I really like your prion scenario, my only quibble with it is that it describes an entirely new type of epidemic, since prions spread badly from species to species, and human-flea-human blood transmission of prions has never been seen in nature. Also the nature of prions remains controversial, some researchers are still adamant that there's a slow-acting virus behind their spread.

With very high kill rates you should not forget the mechanism of natural selection, in such cases the survivors probably had some kind of genetic advantages that gave them a better chance. So over the time the population would become more resistent against a certain mode of attack.

I don't know if the genetic make up of the native americans vs the aboriginals was of influence on the different lethality of diseases, but i could imagine it also played a role.

Right, I'm keeping natural selection in mind, my main question is if this process of exposure and resistance in one population is necessary to have the super-high kill rates upon exposure to isolated populations, or if the virus is capable of those super-high kill rates right out of the box, so to speak.
 
I really like your prion scenario, my only quibble with it is that it describes an entirely new type of epidemic, since prions spread badly from species to species, and human-flea-human blood transmission of prions has never been seen in nature. Also the nature of prions remains controversial, some researchers are still adamant that there's a slow-acting virus behind their spread.

prions are (brain) proteins, and they are very likely very specific to 1 species, although you never know of course. Prions act more like a poisoning of sorts than a disease in my opinion though. so i agree with your reservations.


Right, I'm keeping natural selection in mind, my main question is if this process of exposure and resistance in one population is necessary to have the super-high kill rates upon exposure to isolated populations, or if the virus is capable of those super-high kill rates right out of the box, so to speak.

The first wave could very well have that kind of effects especially if it is something new.
 
So the consensus is that it would need to be easily spread and have a long incubation time?

Highly Infectious (preferably via multiple means of transmission), shares less genetic relation with other prior human diseases, long Incubation period and very high mortality rates. Yes.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I see many references to water/airborne AIDS. Is that a good method, in your opinion?

Yes, it has a very high lethality, and a 7 year incubation period. Make is easier to catch, and everyone is exposed, so you get near 100% infection rate. As long as the lethality stays above 90%, it is all you need.
 
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