WI: A More Successful Decembrist Revolt

What happens if in 1827 the Decembrists in Sankt-Peterbourg manage to force Nikolai to abdicate in favor of Konstantin, likely by a greater degree of support from the mob and various other army regiments? Will Nikolai attempt to flee the city and govern from Moskva? Does Konstantin agree to take the throne, and if so, does he institute the liberal reforms which the Decembristi called for? What is the reaction of the much more radical groups of Decembristi in the Ukraine?

Are there any other PODs anyone can think of to arrive at a "successful" (whatever that means to you) Decembrist Revolt?

What is the reaction of the other great powers if a Russian Republican Revolution occurs? Can they successfully invade Russia or is Russia able to defend itself in the long run to a degree that France, surrounded by hostile powers, couldn't?
 

Kaze

Banned
Installing Constatin would only be considered a coup - and the world would think, "The new Tsar is just as bad as the old one, let us move on and make sure our realpolitik matches the status on the ground."
 
Installing Constatin would only be considered a coup - and the world would think, "The new Tsar is just as bad as the old one, let us move on and make sure our realpolitik matches the status on the ground."

You don't think there's a chance that the radical Decembristi in the Ukraine decide to make a move themselves for a republic or some other much more radical change?
 
What happens if in 1827 the Decembrists in Sankt-Peterbourg manage to force Nikolai to abdicate in favor of Konstantin, likely by a greater degree of support from the mob and various other army regiments? Will Nikolai attempt to flee the city and govern from Moskva? Does Konstantin agree to take the throne, and if so, does he institute the liberal reforms which the Decembristi called for? What is the reaction of the much more radical groups of Decembristi in the Ukraine?

To start with, it was 1825, not 1827. Then, there was no realistic chance for them to force Nicholas' abdication in Constantine's favor because Constantine already abdicated in Nicholas' favor :) and in his letter tо Nicholas (written few days after the events) he characterized the rebels as scumbags ("swoloch") and the whole event as terrible and shameful. As an option, one can play scenario in which Nicholas abdicates in Michael's favor but probability of it is too close to zero. Actually, for the Decembrists the whole scenario with Constantine was just a cover-up allowing to raise at least some troops under a seemingly legitimate pretext (according to the historical anecdote soldiers thought that "Constitution"/"Konstitucia" is a name of Konstantin's wife). They did not have a single coherent plan of action but it seems that at least one of them involved a complete extermination of the imperial family.

"Mob" was not a military factor (looting, if the whole affair continued until darkness, was another issue). True, at some point Nicholas freaked out ("it is a miracle that we had not been shot") but when push came to shove he had more than 12,000 loyal troops (3,000 cavalry and 9,000 infantry) with 36 cannons against 3,000 rebels, enough for dealing with them AND with a mob. Plus at the city outskirts the additional 7,000 infantry and 22 cavalry squadrons (3,000) had been positioned as a reserve.

After all attempts to parlay failed (as a result, general Miloradovich while talking to the troops had been shot in the back) the artillery arrived and after few grapeshot salvos the rebels fled and an attempt to rearrange them on the ice of Neva had been dwarfed by using the cannonballs to break the ice (as Nappy did at Austerlitz). The 1st grapeshot salvo had been fired at the mob (which immediately fled) and the following into the rebels.

Rebellion on Ukraine also was on a pathetic side. The leaders (brothers Muraviev-Apostol) deceived the soldiers of the Chernigov Regiment and then allowed them to loot the drinking establishments on the route (in just one of them 360 buckets of vodka, оr 4,428 liters, had been stolen) and to rob the locals (numerous cases of stealing even from the poor peasants had been recorded) so, by the numerous accounts, most of the rebels had been drunk all the time. Needless to say that at the critical moment the leaders tried to flee but had been prevented by the soldiers: "you cook the meal, you'll eat it with us".
 
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You don't think there's a chance that the radical Decembristi in the Ukraine decide to make a move themselves for a republic or some other much more radical change?

They DID move with a mighty force of a single regiment of the deceived and mostly drunken soldiers who was completely dispersed after the 1st encounter withe the loyal troops.
 
So what, then, with a POD after, say, the 1812 invasion does it take to get an alt-Decembrist movement resulting in meaningful attempts at reform?
 

Kaze

Banned
You don't think there's a chance that the radical Decembristi in the Ukraine decide to make a move themselves for a republic or some other much more radical change?

Not really, Constantin was no better than Nicholas. A republic would not be on his to-do list. If anything, he might move towards Constitutional monarchy, but even then there is a stretch to even do that considering that he would not wish the Duma to curtail him being Tsar. I would expect a toothless Duma if one is established by Constantin, but in the next generation expect the Duma to grow teeth or it will fail.
 
Why the reform is necessary associated with a military coup?

The military taking power both prevents the Czar from easily going back on reforms and also makes it more interesting on the international stage.

Not really, Constantin was no better than Nicholas. A republic would not be on his to-do list. If anything, he might move towards Constitutional monarchy, but even then there is a stretch to even do that considering that he would not wish the Duma to curtail him being Tsar. I would expect a toothless Duma if one is established by Constantin, but in the next generation expect the Duma to grow teeth or it will fail.

I'd almost be thinking that the Sankt-Peterbourg and Ukraine branches have uncanny parallels to the Montagnards and Jacobins...

And the importance of the reform happening now with military backing is to allow Czarist or Post-Czarist Russia to stay abreast of modernization both socially and economically, drastically changing the next 2.5 centuries.
 
The military taking power both prevents the Czar from easily going back on reforms and also makes it more interesting on the international stage.

Well, by 1825 "Century of the Guards" was over so it does not really matter how "interesting" it could be. Besides, the ideas of all 3 official "programs" pretty much excluded possibility of a country-wide victory even if the coup was successful by a simple reason of being impractical (and plain stupid). Neither were the members of either Northern or Southern Society representative of anything but a tiny fraction of the military so "military taking power" are pretty much meaningless words. As for the not going back, a successful Junta would be in even worse position that the members of the "Supreme Council" when they dictated their conditions to the future Empress Anne. You can easily find out how that affair ended.

Pestel was a big admirer of the Jacobin Dictatorship and Terror which was not typical for most of the rest. Of course, some of the "jewels" from Pestel's program worth noticing:

1. He was well ahead of Stalin proposing forced resettlement of the of the Caucasian tribes.
2. He was well ahead of the Bolsheviks proposing to abolish polygamy in the Central Asia.
3. He was well ahead of everybody proposing gathering together 2 millions Jews living in Russia and Poland and escorting them (using military troops) into Asiatic part of the Ottoman Empire.
4. Gypsies would have to convert into Orthodoxy or to be expelled from Russia.
5. He was advocating creation of the special organization ("Uprawa Blagochinia") responsible for tracking the "evil thoughts" which could not be defined by the laws (which means that sanctity of the laws, which he also preached, goes down the tubes). Organization must operate in a complete secrecy and not even be officially recognized but exercise a complete control over all types of activities, public or private. It also has a complete authority to resolve all cases "which could represent problem for the general courts" (even NKVD and GESTAPO had to bring cases to the court even if this was a formality). Initial size of that service had to be 50,000 (for comparison, by the end of 1828 Corps of Gendarmes had 4278 people).
 
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