WI: A Medici Heir

But based on my previous statement about La Farnese only being heiress if her uncles died childless (her younger uncle, Antonio left a pregnant wife and she actually dispatched midwives to declare that the duchess WASN'T pregnant OTL), what if Giovan' Gastone is only producing girls, then Cosimo decides to have his brother defrocked as OTL and married to Ms Gonzaga. Francesco Maria then gets lucky by fathering two sons by her before he kicks. There hasn't been a cadet line to the Medici in a while, so who succeeds Giovan' Gastone? His daughter (presumably married to a foreigner) or his cousin?
 
But based on my previous statement about La Farnese only being heiress if her uncles died childless (her younger uncle, Antonio left a pregnant wife and she actually dispatched midwives to declare that the duchess WASN'T pregnant OTL), what if Giovan' Gastone is only producing girls, then Cosimo decides to have his brother defrocked as OTL and married to Ms Gonzaga. Francesco Maria then gets lucky by fathering two sons by her before he kicks. There hasn't been a cadet line to the Medici in a while, so who succeeds Giovan' Gastone? His daughter (presumably married to a foreigner) or his cousin?
Reading the 1737 lettera patente on the succession to the Grand Duchy I would think that the succession was mostly subjected to salic law as it refers to the extinguishment of the Medici masculine line. So in your scenario I would think that Gian Gastone would more likely be succeeded by his cousin, but there wouod be space for competing claims and a Tuscan succession war if different powers defend different claimants.
 
Reading the 1737 lettera patente on the succession to the Grand Duchy I would think that the succession was mostly subjected to salic law as it refers to the extinguishment of the Medici masculine line. So in your scenario I would think that Gian Gastone would more likely be succeeded by his cousin, but there wouod be space for competing claims and a Tuscan succession war if different powers defend different claimants.

Didn't Cosimo attempt to change the succession laws when he realized Giovan' Gastone wouldn't be having kids, to allow the Electress Palatine to succeed? The Emperor put a brake on that since he claimed that because Tuscany was an imperial fief (as pointed out, only Florence technically) the succession was subject to imperial discretion. So, might Cosimo attempt to tamper with the succession to allow his granddaughter to succeed? Or maybe Giovan' Gastone?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Ferdinando I succeeded his brother Francesco when the latter died without a son thus bypassing Francesco's two daughters. So if Gian Gastone only has a daughter there's precedent to skip over her in favor of his cousin (if Francesco Maria has a son).

But since this scenario is a little less clear cut I'd imagine realpolitik comes into play. Gian Gastone could try to dictate a particular succession in a will. Depending on who Gian Gastone's daughter and Francesco Maria's son marry they could contest the succession and then you're back where you started. Outside powers take sides, questions of feudal obligations and sovereignty come up. A prolonged messy internecine conflict might be worse than OTL.
 
One of the biggest and most documented author about the history of the House de' Medici is Marcello Vannucci (next to popular texts of Christopher Hibbert and Harold Acton). At who to want to make an enjoyable reading about the history of the last de' Medici, I recommend reading the historical novel of Anna Banti «La camicia bruciata», about Marguerite-Louise of Orlèans, Violante of Bavaria and Gian Gastone.

Well, the marriage between the Gran Principe Ferdinando and Violante of Bavaria has been childless because he had no interest in the marriage; Ferdinando wanted to enjoy life with total freedom and without constraints, in addition to being... bisexual: among his male lovers are remembered the singer Petrillo, during the prince's stay in the villa of Pratolino, and Cecchino de' Castris in Venice in 1687.
The match with the Infanta Isabel of Portugal was not realized (even) because it would have involved the transfer of the Gran Principe in Portugal and the reduction of the Italian domain to a mere colonial appendage of the Lusitanian empire (the same reason why, officially, did not materialize the marriage between the same Infanta and Vittorio Amedeo II of Savoy). The match with the Violante of Bavaria would have tied the Medici «with one of the strongest states of Germany, and at the same time would have pleased the King of France, because Violante was the sister of the French Dauphine». But Ferdinando has had no interest in the wife chosen for him, probably does not consumed the marriage, and moreover, during a his stay in Venice, he contracted syphilis from an unnamed gentildonna who, paradoxically, had warned the prince to be infected.

The only pregnancy of Palatine Electress Anna Maria Luisa, of which we have reliable information, was interrupted prematurely by an abortion of a male child to the fourteenth week (Kühn-Steinhausen, 1939, ed. 1967 pp. 77-78, on the basis of correspondence with her uncle Francesco Maria and her father Cosimo III) because she was infected from syphilis by her husband, the Elector Johann Wilhelm, who was already ill.

More complex is the question regarding the marriage of Gian Gastone; in front of the impossibility to have an heir by the Gran Principe Ferdinando and his wife Violante, the choice of a bride for Gian Gastone was a paramount issue. The match was conducted by the Palatine Electress Anna Maria Luisa, according to the mandate of her father, with three peculiarities:
1. the "pedigree" of the bride: for the Palatine Electress the Duchess Anna Maria Franziska of Saxe-Lauenburg was a guarantee because she was "one of the family", being the widow of the Duke Philipp Willhelm August of the Palatinate-Neuburg, younger brother of her husband the Palatine Elector;
2. the indisputable fertility: the urgent need for the Grand Duke of Tuscany was have an heir by his second son; the Duchess Anna Maria Franziska of Saxe-Lauenburg had produced two daughters from her first marriage, one of which still alive, proving to be, without a doubt, fertile;
3. as well as the marriage of Anna Maria Luisa had met the wishes of Cosimo III to secure an alliance with Austria, now the marriage of Gian Gastone had to strengthen this bond; Anna Maria Franziska of Saxe-Lauenburg, as widow of the Duke of the Palatinate-Neuburg, was relative (sister-in-law) of the Emperor Leopold I; in addiction, her claims to the succession to the Duchy of of Saxe-Lauenburg could have been, for Cosimo III, interesting and useful exchange coins for the interests of Tuscany in front of the Imperial Court (objectives of territorial enlargement with the annexation of the Principality of Piombino, the State of the Presidi, the fief of Fosdinovo, etc.).
=> in seeking, therefore, an alternative bride to Gian Gastone, these three factors must be taken into consideration.
For this reason a marriage between Gian Gastone and Eleonora Luisa Gonzaga of Guastalla is not credible, on the contrary of the real marriage between the Cardinal Francesco Maria and Eleonora. This union was important for the father of Eleonora, the Duke Vincenzo Gonzaga, who needed an important Italian ally and an hooking at the Imperial court to protect his rights: Duke of Guastalla, Bozzolo, Sabbioneta etc., he had his little States completely devasted by the French during the War of Spanish Succession; moreover, when the Ferdinando Carlo Gonzaga, Duke of Mantua and Montferrat, was blamed of felony by the Emperor and the Imperial Diet (30 June 1708) and all his possessions were confiscated, he mobilized his diplomacy to ask the investiture of the Duchy of Mantua. And since Cardinal Francesco Maria was not the heir to the Grand Duchy, but only one who would have to generate a son to secure the succession, marriage with a minor Italian princess could be sufficient to ensure this purpose.

The female succession in Tuscany is not automatic.
The Grand Duchy was a composite result of several states:
A. after the fall of the Florentine Republic (1530), according to the terms of the capitulation, the Emperor Charles V had the right to determine the form of government that should have been given in Florence: Alessandro de 'Medici was created by a Bull of investiture of Charles V "Lord" (1531), and then (4 April 1532) "Duke of the Florentine Republic", title transmissible by order of primogeniture to the male descendants of the elder branch of the Medici, excluding females;
B. after that in April 1555, Florence and Spain had occupied the territory of Siena, bestowed upon Cosimo de' Medici as a (male) hereditary fiefdom (the Stato Nuovo or "Duchy of Siena", which will maintain a government and self-government with its own institutions, compared to the rest of the Grand Duchy) by Philip II of Spain with the Treaty of London of 29 May 1557 (in 1712, Cosimo III reiterated at the new Emperor Charles VI that he would agree to receive from him the investiture of Siena, not as emperor but as King of Spain, pending the Treaties would recognize Philip of Bourbon king of Spain);
C. numerous imperial fiefs in Lunigiana and in the Tuscan territory (Pitigliano, Santa Fiora, etc.).
The first idea of Cosimo III has been to restore the Republic of Florence (Conference of Getruidenberg (or Geertruidenberg, 1710), project acceptable to a wide sector of the Florentine aristocracy, England and Holland, favorable to the establishment of an autonomous territorial unit in order to preserve the neutrality of the important and strategic port of Livorno, and also by the Emperor, who would in return got the State of Siena and the imperial fiefs.
The unexpected death of the Emperor Joseph I (4 April 1711) and the related changes in the international political perspectives, had pushed Cosimo III to decide of wanting ensure firstly the succession of his daughter, the Electress Palatine, even if childless (meeting with the College of Imperial Electors (December 1711) and with the new Emperor Charles VI who, in the imminence of the opening of the Utrecht conference of peace, had an interest in improving the relations with the Medici, and he commissioned to the Count Sinzendorf to write a letter at the Palatine Elector (the so-called "Frankfurt ticket", 9 January 1712), in which he promised the investiture of the imperial fiefs of Tuscany to Anna Maria Luisa.
The third phase was followed the death of Gran Principe Ferdinando (30 October 1713), with a "motu proprio" by Cosimo III ratified by the Florentine Senate on November 27 with the public appointment of the Electress Palatine as successor of Gian Gastone (secret abrogation of the ban of succession to the throne of the females). The unilateral decision of Florence was approved by France and Spain (interested to the prospects of succession that opened for Elisabetta Farnese as descendant of Margherita de' Medici, daughter of Cosimo II), but was violently opposed by the Emperor, who claimed his rights feudal over all the grand ducal domains, including Florence.
The marriage between Elisabetta Farnese and Philip V of Spain opened the fourth phase: the Emperor recognized the appointment of Anna Maria Luisa as successor, and the the choice by Cosimo III, as Tuscany's heir, of Rinaldo I d'Este of Modena, linked to the Emperor by ties of kinship and political alliance. But was an ephemeral phase.
The Treaty of London (March 1718, signed by the Emperor on 2 August), confirmed by the Congress of Cambrai (1722), established that the Infant Don Carlos, son of Philip V and Elisabetta Farnese, would succeed in Tuscany and Duchies of Parma and Piacenza once extinct Medici and Farnese.

Well, the (improbable) child of the Palatine Electress, even if a male, would not automatically heir to the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, but only in a possible international political agreement; more interesting would rather the question of a possible daughter from a (alternative) marriage of Gian Gastone or Cardinal Francesco Maria: the baby would be a coveted heiress of the beginning of the eighteenth century, perhaps also the cause of a fifth war of succession in the panorama of the century...
 
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One of the biggest and most documented author about the history of the House de' Medici is Marcello Vannucci (next to popular texts of Christopher Hibbert and Harold Acton). At who to want to make an enjoyable reading about the history of the last de' Medici, I recommend reading the historical novel of Anna Banti «La camicia bruciata», about Marguerite-Louise of Orlèans, Violante of Bavaria and Gian Gastone.

Well, the marriage between the Gran Principe Ferdinando and Violante of Bavaria has been childless because he had no interest in the marriage; Ferdinando wanted to enjoy life with total freedom and without constraints, in addition to being... bisexual: among his male lovers are remembered the singer Petrillo, during the prince's stay in the villa of Pratolino, and Cecchino de' Castris in Venice in 1687.
The match with the Infanta Isabel of Portugal was not realized (even) because it would have involved the transfer of the Gran Principe in Portugal and the reduction of the Italian domain to a mere colonial appendage of the Lusitanian empire (the same reason why, officially, did not materialize the marriage between the same Infanta and Vittorio Amedeo II of Savoy). The match with the Violante of Bavaria would have tied the Medici «with one of the strongest states of Germany, and at the same time would have pleased the King of France, because Violante was the sister of the French Dauphine». But Ferdinando has had no interest in the wife chosen for him, probably does not consumed the marriage, and moreover, during a his stay in Venice, he contracted syphilis from an unnamed gentildonna who, paradoxically, had warned the prince to be infected.

The only pregnancy of Palatine Electress Anna Maria Luisa, of which we have reliable information, was interrupted prematurely by an abortion of a male child to the fourteenth week (Kühn-Steinhausen, 1939, ed. 1967 pp. 77-78, on the basis of correspondence with her uncle Francesco Maria and her father Cosimo III) because she was infected from syphilis by her husband, the Elector Johann Wilhelm, who was already ill.

More complex is the question regarding the marriage of Gian Gastone; in front of the impossibility to have an heir by the Gran Principe Ferdinando and his wife Violante, the choice of a bride for Gian Gastone was a paramount issue. The match was conducted by the Palatine Electress Anna Maria Luisa, according to the mandate of her father, with three peculiarities:
1. the "pedigree" of the bride: for the Palatine Electress the Duchess Anna Maria Franziska of Saxe-Lauenburg was a guarantee because she was "one of the family", being the widow of the Duke Philipp Willhelm August of the Palatinate-Neuburg, younger brother of her husband the Palatine Elector;
2. the indisputable fertility: the urgent need for the Grand Duke of Tuscany was have an heir by his second son; the Duchess Anna Maria Franziska of Saxe-Lauenburg had produced two daughters from her first marriage, one of which still alive, proving to be, without a doubt, fertile;
3. as well as the marriage of Anna Maria Luisa had met the wishes of Cosimo III to secure an alliance with Austria, now the marriage of Gian Gastone had to strengthen this bond; Anna Maria Franziska of Saxe-Lauenburg, as widow of the Duke of the Palatinate-Neuburg, was relative (sister-in-law) of the Emperor Leopold I; in addiction, her claims to the succession to the Duchy of of Saxe-Lauenburg could have been, for Cosimo III, interesting and useful exchange coins for the interests of Tuscany in front of the Imperial Court (objectives of territorial enlargement with the annexation of the Principality of Piombino, the State of the Presidi, the fief of Fosdinovo, etc.).
=> in seeking, therefore, an alternative bride to Gian Gastone, these three factors must be taken into consideration.
For this reason a marriage between Gian Gastone and Eleonora Luisa Gonzaga of Guastalla is not credible, on the contrary of the real marriage between the Cardinal Francesco Maria and Eleonora. This union was important for the father of Eleonora, the Duke Vincenzo Gonzaga, who needed an important Italian ally and an hooking at the Imperial court to protect his rights: Duke of Guastalla, Bozzolo, Sabbioneta etc., he had his little States completely devasted by the French during the War of Spanish Succession; moreover, when the Ferdinando Carlo Gonzaga, Duke of Mantua and Montferrat, was blamed of felony by the Emperor and the Imperial Diet (30 June 1708) and all his possessions were confiscated, he mobilized his diplomacy to ask the investiture of the Duchy of Mantua. And since Cardinal Francesco Maria was not the heir to the Grand Duchy, but only one who would have to generate a son to secure the succession, marriage with a minor Italian princess could be sufficient to ensure this purpose.

The female succession in Tuscany is not automatic.
The Grand Duchy was a composite result of several states:
A. after the fall of the Florentine Republic (1530), according to the terms of the capitulation, the Emperor Charles V had the right to determine the form of government that should have been given in Florence: Alessandro de 'Medici was created by a Bull of investiture of Charles V "Lord" (1531), and then (4 April 1532) "Duke of the Florentine Republic", title transmissible by order of primogeniture to the male descendants of the elder branch of the Medici, excluding females;
B. after that in April 1555, Florence and Spain had occupied the territory of Siena, bestowed upon Cosimo de' Medici as a (male) hereditary fiefdom (the Stato Nuovo or "Duchy of Siena", which will maintain a government and self-government with its own institutions, compared to the rest of the Grand Duchy) by Philip II of Spain with the Treaty of London of 29 May 1557 (in 1712, Cosimo III reiterated at the new Emperor Charles VI that he would agree to receive from him the investiture of Siena, not as emperor but as King of Spain, pending the Treaties would recognize Philip of Bourbon king of Spain);
C. numerous imperial fiefs in Lunigiana and in the Tuscan territory (Pitigliano, Santa Fiora, etc.).
The first idea of Cosimo III has been to restore the Republic of Florence (Conference of Getruidenberg (or Geertruidenberg, 1710), project acceptable to a wide sector of the Florentine aristocracy, England and Holland, favorable to the establishment of an autonomous territorial unit in order to preserve the neutrality of the important and strategic port of Livorno, and also by the Emperor, who would in return got the State of Siena and the imperial fiefs.
The unexpected death of the Emperor Joseph I (4 April 1711) and the related changes in the international political perspectives, had pushed Cosimo III to decide of wanting ensure firstly the succession of his daughter, the Electress Palatine, even if childless (meeting with the College of Imperial Electors (December 1711) and with the new Emperor Charles VI who, in the imminence of the opening of the Utrecht conference of peace, had an interest in improving the relations with the Medici, and he commissioned to the Count Sinzendorf to write a letter at the Palatine Elector (the so-called "Frankfurt ticket", 9 January 1712), in which he promised the investiture of the imperial fiefs of Tuscany to Anna Maria Luisa.
The third phase was followed the death of Gran Principe Ferdinando (30 October 1713), with a "motu proprio" by Cosimo III ratified by the Florentine Senate on November 27 with the public appointment of the Electress Palatine as successor of Gian Gastone (secret abrogation of the ban of succession to the throne of the females). The unilateral decision of Florence was approved by France and Spain (interested to the prospects of succession that opened for Elisabetta Farnese as descendant of Margherita de' Medici, daughter of Cosimo II), but was violently opposed by the Emperor, who claimed his rights feudal over all the grand ducal domains, including Florence.
The marriage between Elisabetta Farnese and Philip V of Spain opened the fourth phase: the Emperor recognized the appointment of Anna Maria Luisa as successor, and the the choice by Cosimo III, as Tuscany's heir, of Rinaldo I d'Este of Modena, linked to the Emperor by ties of kinship and political alliance. But was an ephemeral phase.
The Treaty of London (March 1718, signed by the Emperor on 2 August), confirmed by the Congress of Cambrai (1722), established that the Infant Don Carlos, son of Philip V and Elisabetta Farnese, would succeed in Tuscany and Duchies of Parma and Piacenza once extinct Medici and Farnese.

Well, the (improbable) child of the Palatine Electress, even if a male, would not automatically heir to the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, but only in a possible international political agreement; more interesting would rather the question of a possible daughter from a (alternative) marriage of Gian Gastone or Cardinal Francesco Maria: the baby would be a coveted heiress of the beginning of the eighteenth century, perhaps also the cause of a fifth war of succession in the panorama of the century...

So, taking this into consideration, who would you suggest as an alternative wife for Giovan' Gastone? Surely the duchess of Lauenburg was not the only option the Electress could dig up with the necessary qualities? I mean Giovan' Gastone never forgave her for arranging the marriage that made him 1) leave Italy, and 2) married him to a madwoman who spent her days in the stables talking to the horses...
 
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