WI a Japanese Sakhalin?

I do not see Japan’s Karafuto Prefecture, including the southern half of the island of Sakhalin, surviving the Second World War. Simply put, Karafuto shared the island with the Sakhalin Oblast of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. With an exposed border with a well-armed country that wanted revenge on Japan for its past victories against different Russian states, I see no prospect of Karafuto surviving. The southern Kuril islands, now, might have remained Japanese had the international agreements leading up to the surrender of Japan been clearer about the disposition of these territories, perhaps especially if Soviets had not taken the islands.

If we go further back, it might be possible for Japan to acquire all of Sakhalin. It’s my understanding that some people in Japan wanted to acquire the entire island, not just the relatively warm southern half, but that the Russian Empire was reluctant to transfer the entire island while Japan was just not that interested in the north, and everyone just wanted peace to end an expensive war. (Apparently, at one point Sergei Witte was willing to give Japan the entire island if it dropped its demand for reparations.) I think it imaginable that a Japan that fared better in the Russo-Japanese War could well take the entire island. In this case, it would gain a territory that would be much more defensible against future attacks. If the rest of history proceeds as it did in our timeline, the Soviet Union may never be able to invade this all-Japanese Sakhalin from across the Nevelskoy Strait, never mind the southern Kuril islands.

What will these northern territories look like? Adjacent Hokkaido, successfully colonized under the Meiji by Japanese migrants under the guidance of a new government that had access to the latest agricultural and other technologies of the West, provides an example of what might be possible. Karafuto’s population peaked at four hundred thousand before the Soviet invasion. I think it imaginable that this all-Japanese Sakhalin’s population might be significantly greater, well above a million. The oil, in particular, might be a potent driver for immigration, as might American military bases assuming there is a Cold War.

(The Soviet Pacific is going to evolve differently, with Japanese Sakhalin and the Kurils sharply limiting Soviet naval access to the open Pacific. Petropavlovsk Kamchatskiy may see more development, while Vladivostok may see less.)

Assuming that Japanese history continues to proceed more-or-less as it did in our history, these northern territories of Japan would probably be much richer and more populous than they have been in our history under Soviet then Russian rule. I see no reason to think that these islands’ retention by Japan would significantly alter the general direction of Japan’s development, with an economic boom lasting until the 1990s followed by a marked decline. Probably there would be government megaprojects intended to tie Sakhalin more closely to the other Home Islands, perhaps up to and including a tunnel linking the island and its transportation network to Hokkaido.

Thoughts?
 
It's a fifth island of Japan, Japan's least populated island, although more populated than OTL Sakhalin. A tunnel linking it to Hokkaido is likely, and then perhaps to Russia after the Cold War/whenever links to that area is feasible.

It may be more known than OTL, as its English name would be Karafuto and it wouldn't be some isolated part of Russia but an integral part of Japan. Japanese pop culture is altered, as is all those maps of Japan, since now you have almost an almost 600 mile long island as part of Japan.
 
Japan having a domestic source of oil will be a big thing in this TL. It may well help Japan's trade surpluses reach even greater levels than OTL if it has less need for expensive imported fuel.

Against this, a Japan that included Sakhalin would also face extra costs. Integrating Sakhalin directly with the Home Islands will carry costs.
 
Japan having a domestic source of oil will be a big thing in this TL. It may well help Japan's trade surpluses reach even greater levels than OTL if it has less need for expensive imported fuel.

Against this, a Japan that included Sakhalin would also face extra costs. Integrating Sakhalin directly with the Home Islands will carry costs.

True, but Karafuto Prefecture was not treated as a colony by the time of WWII, and I don't see why expanding Karafuto Prefecture to include the entire island (since like Hokkaido, it would only be one prefecture) would necessarily have a negative impact.

It would give Japan some more ethnic issues regarding indigenous peoples, though I doubt that adding a few hundred or even a few thousand more would change the Japanese government's stance.
 
True, but Karafuto Prefecture was not treated as a colony by the time of WWII, and I don't see why expanding Karafuto Prefecture to include the entire island (since like Hokkaido, it would only be one prefecture) would necessarily have a negative impact.

It would give Japan some more ethnic issues regarding indigenous peoples, though I doubt that adding a few hundred or even a few thousand more would change the Japanese government's stance.

Agreed. I'm thinking of the costs of integrating a large territory with a relatively small population and a difficult climate into Japan. OTL Japan was spared the costs of this in a way that ATL Japan would not. Will there be a Hokkaido-Sakhalin tunnel if both islands are Japanese, for instance?
 
Agreed. I'm thinking of the costs of integrating a large territory with a relatively small population and a difficult climate into Japan. OTL Japan was spared the costs of this in a way that ATL Japan would not. Will there be a Hokkaido-Sakhalin tunnel if both islands are Japanese, for instance?

But the population, though relatively small, was mostly colonists from elsewhere in Japan, at least some of whom might've emigrated to Hawaii, Brazil, etc otherwise. The climate (using Toyohara/Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk's climate) doesn't seem terrible for the region. Agriculture is not terrible (buckwheat will do well there), and using Google Maps, the landscape doesn't seem much different from Hokkaido (what looks like kudzu seems to thrive toward the south of the island, either way it looks like Hokkaido in many ways). The climate on the north of the island is of course harsher, but not too much so, especially since that's the part where oil and coal comes from and where Japan will settle as a result.

Overall, I can't see why the costs of incorporating Karafuto as Japan's fifth island would outweigh the costs of not doing so as in OTL--it just makes Karafuto less valuable in the end.

For the tunnel, given a modern Japan, I think so. It's about the length of the Seikan Tunnel, and Karafuto's resources, which would be relevant into the era of modern Japan, would justify it. Perhaps the name would be the Jidai Tunnel (稚大隧道), named for Wakkanai and Ootomari, the nearest large cities (like how the Seikan Tunnel is named for Aomori and Hakodate). There's also the related tunnel which can built under the Nevelskoy Strait (much shorter) which links it to Russia, which would be relevant in the post-Soviet era (or maybe a reformed Soviet Union China-style). If no similar tunnel is built to connect Japan and (South) Korea, as has been proposed, then these two tunnels are Japan's land link to the world.
 
But the population, though relatively small, was mostly colonists from elsewhere in Japan, at least some of whom might've emigrated to Hawaii, Brazil, etc otherwise. The climate (using Toyohara/Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk's climate) doesn't seem terrible for the region. Agriculture is not terrible (buckwheat will do well there), and using Google Maps, the landscape doesn't seem much different from Hokkaido (what looks like kudzu seems to thrive toward the south of the island, either way it looks like Hokkaido in many ways). The climate on the north of the island is of course harsher, but not too much so, especially since that's the part where oil and coal comes from and where Japan will settle as a result.

Overall, I can't see why the costs of incorporating Karafuto as Japan's fifth island would outweigh the costs of not doing so as in OTL--it just makes Karafuto less valuable in the end.

For the tunnel, given a modern Japan, I think so. It's about the length of the Seikan Tunnel, and Karafuto's resources, which would be relevant into the era of modern Japan, would justify it. Perhaps the name would be the Jidai Tunnel (稚大隧道), named for Wakkanai and Ootomari, the nearest large cities (like how the Seikan Tunnel is named for Aomori and Hakodate). There's also the related tunnel which can built under the Nevelskoy Strait (much shorter) which links it to Russia, which would be relevant in the post-Soviet era (or maybe a reformed Soviet Union China-style). If no similar tunnel is built to connect Japan and (South) Korea, as has been proposed, then these two tunnels are Japan's land link to the world.

I was thinking of the construction industry-driven Keynesianism that Japan undertook in the 1990s OTL, trying to prop up the economy after the bubble burst. Certainly, we could argue, this money would be better spent on building infrastructure that would be used.
 
This scenario does seem to offer the potential for interestingness regarding Russia. A bridge connection between Japan, through a Karafuto integrated with the other home island, and Russia may actually be practical, more so than in a timeline like ours where the La Pérouse strait is a relatively impermeable international frontier.
 
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