WI: A Hungarian Revolt Around 1790?

Historically, Joseph II, then Holy Roman Emperor, attempted modernizing and centralizing reforms in his territories, leading to the Brabant revolt in Belgium and serious opposition from Hungary's traditional nobility, as he attempted to centralize the Hapsburg Empire and establish an enlightened absolutist monarchy. Some Hungarians even briefly flirted with putting Prince Karl August of Weimar on the throne of Hungary while he still lived, though Karl was hesitant to accept the post.

However, towards the end of his life, Joseph II lingered in sickness, and eventually died in 1790, but not before reverting almost all his policies in Hungary and being succeeded by his brother Leopold II who took a light hand with Hungary.

What if, instead, Joseph II stays around much longer, avoiding sickness and continuing to try to push his policies in Hungary, eventually leading to an outright revolt by the traditional estates there? This would cripple Hapsburg power and possibly stave off or entirely prevent the French revolutionaries' declaration of war against Austria. The Hungarian traditional system involved a class of "nobles" - in 1784, a census counted them at 4.5% of the adult male population, so much larger than your traditional nobility - who were given all kinds of rights in governing Hungary, like voting on taxes and who would be the monarch. If these guys decided that Joseph II had to go, they might very well have a little "revolution" of their own and replace him with someone more to their tastes as monarch.

Assuming that Hungary doesn't wind up snowballing into revolutionary terror or republicanism, just creating (or reaffirming) a constitutional monarchy with, say, Karl August of Weimer on the throne, what would be the consequences for Europe? The Austrian Empire would effectively be sundered, possibly distracted in a full-blown civil war, and revolutionary France would be unlikely to feel threatened by the Pillnitz declaration (if it even still occurs).
 

raharris1973

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Very interesting idea.

I imagine if a Hungarian revolt succeeds at this time it will derail the Austrian campaign against the Ottomans immediately. Austria's Serbian allies within the OE will be screwed. The Ottomans and the new Hungary will likely ally with each other because of a common interest keeping the Habsburgs (and Russians) away, and neither would have the strength or confidence to anticipate that they could make major territorial gains at each others' expense.

Assuming that happens I guess the new Hungary would be favorable to the Ottomans and Prussians. If Joseph has to give up reconquista of Hungary, he may focus more Austrian attention from then on within the HRE, especially southern Germany.

Of course a potential wrinkle in this would be a potential Russian intervention on Austria's behalf to suppress the Hungarians. While this is not the age of Nicholas I, Austria was an ally and cobelligerent of Russia at the time. And, within a relatively short period of time, contention related to the French revolution may begin and the revolutionary French may find themselves at war with one or more neighboring powers.
 

raharris1973

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This will also have knock ons related to the 2nd and 3rd partitions of Poland. It may forestall them, Poland may be puppetized, or Poland will form a quadruple alliance with Hungary the Ottomans and Swedes.

If the partitions do proceed under these circumstances, they would much more likely be a pure Russo-Prussian affair, probably roughly along the lines of the Hitler-Stalin pact, Lithuania and Galicia to Russia, and west and central Poland to Prussia.
 
I don't know how likely it is for Austria to lose Hungary but it pretty much helps rump state Poland and the Ottomans.

Hungary revolting does not really affect the Ottomans other than the Serbs having no safe haven in case getting driven away.

Polands future still depends on if Russia thinks it is a good idea to divide Poland with Prussia alone.

France will have an easier time fighting its way through Germany and Italy.

If France still gets contained, one should wonder who could oppose Russia in Eastern Europe. Hungary and Poland (if it exists) are to weak. Sweden can't do much. The Ottomans are in the midst of reforming.
 
This will also have knock ons related to the 2nd and 3rd partitions of Poland. It may forestall them, Poland may be puppetized, or Poland will form a quadruple alliance with Hungary the Ottomans and Swedes.

If the partitions do proceed under these circumstances, they would much more likely be a pure Russo-Prussian affair, probably roughly along the lines of the Hitler-Stalin pact, Lithuania and Galicia to Russia, and west and central Poland to Prussia.
Poland was allied with Prussia which in turn is supported by Britain - although Prussia iirc organized the alliance with Poland in bad faith, hoping to provoke Russia and organize another partition. If Austria goes down Brits might want keeping Poland around to help them fight France (not that they would be much help, bringing Poland's army out of atrophy would take time) and they may provide some funds and maybe some military advisors.
If the campaign against Otomans is derailed before that alliance, Russia might be more interesting in letting Poland modernize a bit to gain some more cannon fodder for cheapo. There were such plans but they collapsed due to Russian wars going on well.
 
Assuming that Hungary doesn't wind up snowballing into revolutionary terror or republicanism, just creating (or reaffirming) a constitutional monarchy with, say, Karl August of Weimer on the throne, what would be the consequences for Europe?

Was there any particular reason they/you chose Karl August of Weimar (rather than some local Hungarian prince - Esterhazy was too Habsburg supporter, but the Esterhazys weren't the only Hungarian aristocratic family)? I'm asking because in my TL, the Hungarians have just flicked the bird to Joseph, and the Low Countries are getting restive. So, I'm asking to see if there is any possibility that the revolt could be successful.
 
Was there any particular reason they/you chose Karl August of Weimar (rather than some local Hungarian prince - Esterhazy was too Habsburg supporter, but the Esterhazys weren't the only Hungarian aristocratic family)? I'm asking because in my TL, the Hungarians have just flicked the bird to Joseph, and the Low Countries are getting restive. So, I'm asking to see if there is any possibility that the revolt could be successful.
From what I can make out of (the Google translated text of) Preussen, Weimar und die ungarische Königskrone, mit dem Faksimile eines Goethe-Briefes, in November 1789, one of the Hungarian malcontents approached the King of Prussia about their wishes for a rebellion, and he (the King of Prussia) suggested Karl August of Weimar as a candidate for the throne. However, although initially it seems like Prussia was willing to go to war with Austria (in fact, Frederick William seems to have wanted a war with Austria to better secure their position in Germany), Karl August refused to take the throne if Prussia didn't actively involve itself (for the obvious reason that he would quickly lose it). The war with Austria didn't materialize, with Frederick William failing to get together the lesser German princes quickly, England wasting months responding to letters to keep Prussia on the line, and then Joseph II started walking everything back, and all the local rage dissipated and the Prussians seem to have just given it up.

Their motive was likely simply self-interest: Prussia and Austria were often rivals, and carving Hungary out of Austria would severely debilitate Austrian power and ensure Prussian ascendancy. Better to put a German on the throne and get their old rights respected than to put a Magyar on it and get stomped in.
 
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Well, OTL, there were two plans (under Karl Theodor) to swap Bavaria for a polity elsewhere, one in 1777 when he became elector and the ensuing Bavarian Succession War which followed. And another in the 1790s (when he married his second wife, Maria Leopoldine of Modena). It would be hilarious if Austria were to lose Hungary to the pro-Prussian Prince of Saxe-Weimar (as proposed in the Austria Gets Bavaria thread), and are willing to part with their Hungarian subjects (Joseph II and Leopold II never really liked them in the same way as their mother did - think a proto-Sisi and Rudolf kinda relationship with the Magyars) in exchange for Prussia uncontesting their "right" to Bavaria. Of course, if Joseph/Leopold II and Friedrich Wilhelm II agree to it at an alt-Pillnitz, and it only comes to pass in the reign of Franz II/Friedrich Wilhelm III, it could be fun to see spiral out of control.
 
Been thinking more and the only thing that Prussia would have that Austria wants is Silesia. I'm not sure how interested Joseph II was in that, although he tried more than once to claim portions of Bavaria. So what if Joseph/Leopold agree that they will part with Hungary to Friedrich Wilhelm II's proxy, if, in exchange, Prussia stops cock-blocking them as far as Bavaria is concerned. Now, Friedrich der Große would've seized Hungary for his great-nephew (the prince of Weimar) from Austria without breaking a sweat (were he of a mind to), but I could see FWII making a dumb move like "ja, we'll give up Silesia/supporting Bavaria, if you give us Hungary".
 
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