WI: A German style/federal unification of Italy?

Basically what it says in the title. I know that a similar idea was envisioned by Napoléon III, so could such a thing be possible? If so would the Pope be the leader (King/Emperor) of this new Italy or would a sovereign be chosen from among the ruling monarchs of the Peninsula? Basically what would a Federal Italy look like and what would the long-term implications be?
 

TinyTartar

Banned
A more secular and powerful Papacy might have a chance at this. The absence of a post-Borgia retrenchment into ecclesiastical matters might help with this.
 
For an holy Roman style solution I think you have to go far back into time, maybe avoiding the Gothic wars? Or having a stronger Hohenstaufen dinasty, Federicus II might be an interesting candidate. The problem there is that controlling both sides of the Alps, even in a loose, HRE style, is almost impossible.
But I am no expert on mediaeval thins, others might have better ideas.

A possibility arises in the xixth century. To my knowledge around 1848 most Italian nationalists thought about a federal solution, within many wanting to have the Pope as a more of less ceremonial President. This idea, called neoguelphism had the slight problem of the Pope being rather uncooperative towards Italian unification, to say the least. Maybe if the Kingdom of Naples had been less inward looking at that time it could have served decisively in defeating the Austrians in 1848, leading to some loose Confederation with Sardinia and the other Italian states.
Another option is that liberal federalists like Cattaneo and Manin are more successful in the Spring of 1848, which, might eventually lead to a federated, democratic Italy, but this is really low on the scale of probability, unfortunately.

After that the consensus was that only the army of Sardinia could defeat the Austrians, and they were a very centralistic state.
 
One idea I had a while back for a stronger Austrian Empire involved the House of Savoy marrying into the Habsburgs by Maria Theresa wedding Charles Emmanuel III of Sardinia instead of Francis Stephen of Lorraine. Now that's going to create butterflies but Savoy blocks France from easily intervening in northern Italy so even if the Napoleonic Wars don't come around I'd expect it to come under increasing Habsburg influence, and if things did go somewhat along the lines of our timeline post-Napoleonic Wars that would leave them, or branches of the family, running most of Italy north of the Papal States IIRC. States like Tuscany and Lombardy-Venezia were often used as training grounds for future rulers or to give second sons a suitable position. Whilst the main supporter of Italian unification now won't be there the sentiment will still be to some degree, so at a point in the future the Habsburgs spin off Italy with an organisation similar to the German Confederation and things go from there.
 
Napoleon III's plan at and after Villafranca was for an Italian Confederation on the model of the German Confederation. The Pope would be honorary president, the Kings of Sardinia and the Two Sicilies would hold effective leadership, Austrian Venetia would be included, and Tuscany and Modena, at least, would also be members. Parma's fate was unclear - it might be restored to the Bourbons or annexed to Sardinia.

The Austrians accepted in principle, so long as the Habsburg archdukes were restored in Modena and Tuscany, but had reservations about what Austrian Venetia's participation would look like. France wanted a self-governing Austrian Venetia with its own constitution. Austria was...er...less interested in that. There were a number of other problems, but the biggest one was that there was no real way to get the archdukes back to Florence and Modena without military intervention, and Napoleon III refused to countenance such an intervention, which or more or less made the whole idea collapse.
 
Napoleon III's plan at and after Villafranca was for an Italian Confederation on the model of the German Confederation. The Pope would be honorary president, the Kings of Sardinia and the Two Sicilies would hold effective leadership, Austrian Venetia would be included, and Tuscany and Modena, at least, would also be members. Parma's fate was unclear - it might be restored to the Bourbons or annexed to Sardinia.

The Austrians accepted in principle, so long as the Habsburg archdukes were restored in Modena and Tuscany, but had reservations about what Austrian Venetia's participation would look like. France wanted a self-governing Austrian Venetia with its own constitution. Austria was...er...less interested in that. There were a number of other problems, but the biggest one was that there was no real way to get the archdukes back to Florence and Modena without military intervention, and Napoleon III refused to countenance such an intervention, which or more or less made the whole idea collapse.

Is there any chance that the Austrian government might accept (pre 1858) a proposal that has a more or less self-governing Kdm of Lombardo-Venetia; with a "traditional" government with representation of the local Italian nobility, but no explicit parliament?
Vaguely similar to the early modern Imperial Circles, there would be a Italian Confederation, with a clerical power (the Papal States) holding the chancellorship and a temporal power (the Kdm of Lom-Ven) holding the military leadership. Sardinia and Naples would play a secondary role with some rights reserved. Parma, Modena and Tuscany would be more or less direct Austrian puppets.

IOW, Vienna would give up some direct control over L-V, but hope to gain more indirect control over Italy as a whole.

Is there any chance to get something like that already in or near 1815?
 
Is there any chance that the Austrian government might accept (pre 1858) a proposal that has a more or less self-governing Kdm of Lombardo-Venetia; with a "traditional" government with representation of the local Italian nobility, but no explicit parliament?
Vaguely similar to the early modern Imperial Circles, there would be a Italian Confederation, with a clerical power (the Papal States) holding the chancellorship and a temporal power (the Kdm of Lom-Ven) holding the military leadership. Sardinia and Naples would play a secondary role with some rights reserved. Parma, Modena and Tuscany would be more or less direct Austrian puppets.

IOW, Vienna would give up some direct control over L-V, but hope to gain more indirect control over Italy as a whole.

Is there any chance to get something like that already in or near 1815?

Before 1848, it's hard to see why Austria would have any interest in such a thing. They control Italy without it, so what need have they of a confederation? After 1848, it doesn't fit very well with Schwarzenberg's neo-absolutism, but I suppose you could imagine an Austrian regime that creates some form of constitutional devolution in Lombardy-Venetia. Certainly Archduke Ferdinand Maximilian was interested in such a project. It's hard to see how you get the Confederation, though, because, again, it's not really in anyone's interest. Austria dominates the peninsula without a confederation, and a confederation dominated by Austria would not be in France's (or Piedmont's) interest.

I wonder, though, what might happen if the Austrians play the approach to war in 1859 a bit differently. They actually had Napoleon III over a barrel, because he wanted to start a war with at least some sort of fig leaf that he wasn't the aggressor, but he didn't have such a fig leaf until the Austrians sent an ultimatum demanding Piedmont disarm. If the Austrians hold off from the ultimatum, instead of a war, you end up with a Congress of the great powers dealing with the Italian question. That might be your opportunity for a confederal solution. Even there, though, it's tough, because the OTL Austrian leadership is basically just incredibly stubborn.

OTL, they had a very pro-Austrian British government under Derby and Malmesbury basically telling them just not to do anything stupid and everything would work out, and a reasonably friendly Prussian government that would be very hard-pressed to avoid supporting Austria in a defensive war against France, and they piss the whole thing away for no good reason.

Here's a possibility: kill off Franz Joseph some time before Rudolf is conceived (i.e., late 1857) and make Maximilian the new emperor. He's *much* more liberal and (for a Habsburg) pro-Italian. Much more likely to make concessions. I don't think you're going to successfully change Franz Joseph very much, but his brother could easily pursue very different policies. Certainly it's relatively easy to see him avoiding the 1859 war, and much easier to see him supporting reform proposals in Italy.
 
Basically what it says in the title. I know that a similar idea was envisioned by Napoléon III, so could such a thing be possible? If so would the Pope be the leader (King/Emperor) of this new Italy or would a sovereign be chosen from among the ruling monarchs of the Peninsula? Basically what would a Federal Italy look like and what would the long-term implications be?

This federated monarchy will require the other monarchs of the peninsula keeping their thrones and accept one as Primus Inter Pares.

Most likely Sardinia will be Prussia in this analogy and The Two Sicilies will be Bavaria. It could work, if they'd need to unite against a common enemy or enemies, Austria and/or France will be perfect for this role. IMHO you don't need a 'Holy Roman' solution for this, the German Lands might have been divided in 1870/1871 due to their history, but the federal monarchy was to address the reality of that time (which came to be due to the past).
 
This federated monarchy will require the other monarchs of the peninsula keeping their thrones and accept one as Primus Inter Pares.

Most likely Sardinia will be Prussia in this analogy and The Two Sicilies will be Bavaria. It could work, if they'd need to unite against a common enemy or enemies, Austria and/or France will be perfect for this role. IMHO you don't need a 'Holy Roman' solution for this, the German Lands might have been divided in 1870/1871 due to their history, but the federal monarchy was to address the reality of that time (which came to be due to the past).

But, where Prussia's size, population and prosperity put Berlin far ahead of everyone else in Germany, the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies was the biggest and most populated Italian state in the 19th century, if a backwards one when compared to the Kingdom of Sardinia. The Bourbon realm might therefore be even more influential in a federal Italian state than the Wittelsbach one in Germany; a federal solution would benefit Naples, by the way - the Two Sicilies weren't well off before 1861, but Turin/Florence/Rome's at times deliberate mishandling of the Mezzogiorno made things even worse for the southern third of the peninsula.

And what about Milan, Trento and Venice? I doubt the other Italian monarchs would be willing to let the House of Savoy have either of those territories.

The last Visconti died only a few years ago, by the way. A restoration of the old Duchy of Milan could've been possible, in a federal but monarchist Italy. :p
 
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OTOH a Visconti Milan might be as likely as a Schleswig-Holstein-Sonderburg-Augustenburg duchy of Schleswig-Holstein & Lauenburg.
 
The last Visconti died only a few years ago, by the way. A restoration of the old Duchy of Milan could've been possible, in a federal but monarchist Italy. :p

The existence of some junior branch of the family (not closely related to the ducal branch, certainly) is pretty irrelevant, I'd think. Much more likely a Habsburg or Bourbon princeling on the throne of an independent Milan.

The First Partition Treaty of 1698, by the way, provided for the Duke of Lorraine to become Duke of Milan, with Lorraine going to France. So there's your opportunity, maybe.
 
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