WI: A German civil war in 1934

What if just before the Nazis initiated the Night of the Long Knives purge against the SA leadership, the four and half-million army, under the leadership of Ernest Rohm, attempted to overthrow the German government and in the process, caused a civil war between them and the Reichswehr?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Not enough info : How shall/should the "2nd Revolution" conducted by Röhm and the SA take place ?

Esp. : What happens to Hitler ?
Pls don't forget, Hitler WAS - even after 3 1/2 years of Röhms reign - for the overwhelming majority of the SA-members, especially the "active" ones, the ONE AND ONLY DEMI-GOD. Without his "closeness" to Hitler, Ernst Röhm had almost nothing, beside his innermost circle of confidents/intimates (in several senses ...).
He would have to :
  • bring Hitler on his side or
  • put Hitler out of commission at all (aka kill him).
First I don't see to going to happen. Hitler was at this point already too "well" and deeply engaged with the "establishment" (that followed willingly his own need and deeds) and : Röhm was already too powerfull to be acceptable for Hitler to have him on his side.

The second ... could work, as a "revenge-crusade" for whoever got blamed for the killing of Hitler - at least for getting as much "support" as possible by the SA and at least partially the PO(Party Organization) as well. Though I doubt, it would be "enough" to topple the Reichswehr and the "regular" goverment.


The 4 1/2 million men Röhm shall be able to muster ...
More than half of the nominal SA-menbers weren't "active" SA, but "SA II", the "older" and/or inactive, "supporting" members, not "fit" enough for duty (aka hooliganism"). And even of the "active" "SA I" many were only "part-timers", when needed for certain activities (propaganda) and far from anyweher near a "fighting" fitness as well.
Then ... even that Röhm in the 20ies controlled a damn awfull lot of the illegal weaponry of the Reichswehr, this wasn't the case anymore in the 30ies, though the SA definitly had its secret weapons-depot. ... But nowwhere near to arm, what weaponsbearing-capable men he would have been able to muster.
I thinks its more realistical, that even in a (for Röhm) best case scenario he woudn't be able to muster more than 200k to 500k men, with a questionable military training at best, spread over the entire empire, of which imo not more than 100k to 200k would be armed at least with light infantry weaponry, but only very, very few heavy infantry weapons (MGs, a few minethrower perhaps).


So ...
without Hitler going with Röhm and staying chancellor : Röhm and the SA are toast - by the Reichswehr as well as SS as well as still some hiding commies (maybe).
with Hitler dead ... it will take only longer. There will be also some struggle within the PO, which wouldn't like to follow Röhm at all - esp. not with all the "new" posts they got within the goverment. In that case the Reichswehr might probably wait a few days, until the PO has realized, that their best bet is going with the goverment instaed the "Röhm-crusaders" - and smash the SA then, which still wouldn't - IMO - stand a chance against the Reichswehr by its inherent structural weakness (training, weapons, trained leaders).

However, when gunsmoke settles, you would see almost the same, as OTL, only later, with more power to the military, with some even more strikt "emergency laws" for some longer time.
Again, a lot would depend on Hitler fate. Without him we might see a reemergence of Gregor Strasser ? Or an outright military dictatoship under emergency laws by Schleicher ?
 
Be amazed how much difference it makes when you have currently trained professional officers leading men under full discipline vs a bunch of street thugs.

The is a reason that serious civil disturbances stop as soon as real professional troops appear (when you are only allowed to have 100,000 troops, they tend to be VERY good).

As an outstanding example take look at what happened in LA during the 1992 King Riots. Complete chaos for three days, cops weren't even managing to hold a perimeter. Day Four 1,500 Marines out of Camp Pendleton and 2,000 troops from 7th ID arrived. Didn't fire a shot. Rioting and attack just flat stopped. Burning city, attacks on Korean businesses, and major street gangs stealing whatever wasn't nailed down. EIGHT HOURS later, first Humvees it the street, virtual full stop.

Even the Crips and Bloods, who are at least as hard core (and likely far more professional AND better armed) than the SA, took one look and decided not to "fuck with The Proud".

The SA were bullies (hell, the entire Nazi Party was nothing but bullies), the Reichwehr would have made them their bitches.

Three guys with a belt fed and a rifle squad will take 3,000 yabos and make them into 700 dead yabos, 500 wounded yabos (who will be dead PDQ without prompt medical care to keep them out of shock/bleeding out) and 1,800 terrified punks. Only question is the RoE the troops are under and if they can keep a clear field of fire. Knowing Hindenberg's history they will be fully weapons free.

You are right that the 1992 are not an ideal comparative. Those troops were under "do not fire unless fired up or on instruction from your platoon leader".

Dogs fight, wolves eat. Guess who is who.

Better question is how much ammunition they have, followed by how long has it been since they used the weapon, with readiness to die coming in a close 3rd. The biggest, almost unbridgeable difference between currently trained and disciplined military forces and anyone else is that the soldier KNOWS that they are in a job that killing and dying is part of the basic program. Every day in more little ways than can be listed, a soldier is reminded that they are under discipline, that they are under orders and , perhaps most critically, that they will do whatever is necessary to not let down their squadies/battle buddies. Everything the military does reinforces this. Better to die than fail your friends (this, BTW, was what got troops stand firm at Thermopylae, out of the trenches in WW I and off the helo in the 'Nam and everywhere in between). That is what is meant when they talk about good order and discipline and good morale.

Civilians and ex-soldiers who have been out from under true military discipline lose (or never had), that mindset. Civilians, especially in the late 20s-early 30s worry about getting off work and grabbing a beer or three with their mates, then going home, having a nice dinner made by the little woman, maybe play with the kids for a bit, read the paper, and go to bed. Rinse, repeat. The most important bond isn't the guy who bunks next to you or who bitches about chow two chair down every time they serve fish, it is to family, or to survival. People may think that they will fight and die for an idea, very, VERY few will. They march and scream and are okay as long as the mob is advancing, as soon as the first couple guys go down and the blood and piss and shit and fear smells overwhelm them they get happy feet. As soon as the first guy breaks its instant sauve qui peut. This is why regulars almost always mop the floor with militia, no unit cohesion.

Quoting Calbear for Reichswehr vs SA it only takes a search pal
 
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