WI: A Frenchman for Duke of Cleves

Obviously by Cleves I mean the United Duchies of Jülich, Kleve and Berg. And by a Frenchman I mean one of the late François de la Marck, duke of Nevers' sons surviving.

OTL he had two sons, François II and Jacques. But both died without issue. Françoìs II was married to a princess of Bourbon. So, assuming all things go reasonably OTL in Cleves (there's still a succession war due to the duke dying without issue), if François/Jacques are still alive or have surviving male heirs what would the repercussions be?
 
Been thinking about this some more:

Can the emperor declare the French line's claim null and void? But I don't know if the French are gonna stand for it though. The Hohenzollerns and Wittelsbachs based their claim on there being only distant male relatives left. Here, the French line is third cousins in the MALE line to the last duke. So would the HRE risk pissing off the French (the de la Marcks were close to the Valois and related by marriage to both the Bourbon-Vendomes (Henri IV, the prince de Condé etc) and the Bourbon-Montpensiers (who are related to Willem the Silent's third wife)...
 
God is on the side with the biggest battalions.

If the French push their claimant in the context of the Thirty Years War they'd likely get at least part of it, most likely it would mean a partition like what happened OTL. Remember that the fight was religiously divided, the protestant territories would not look favorably on French rule nor would the protestant powers. That said it isn't impossible that France could secure all or the territory for this ally. A male line claimant has a strong claim indeed.
 
God is on the side with the biggest battalions.

If the French push their claimant in the context of the Thirty Years War they'd likely get at least part of it, most likely it would mean a partition like what happened OTL. Remember that the fight was religiously divided, the protestant territories would not look favorably on French rule nor would the protestant powers. That said it isn't impossible that France could secure all or the territory for this ally. A male line claimant has a strong claim indeed.

The French de la Marcks seem to have been both sides of the religious divide (or at least married over) - since François I's wife was Marguerite de Bourbon (sister of Antoine of Vendôme and the prince of Condé) while his daughters wed a prince of Mantua (an arch Catholic IIRC) and the prince of Condé (leaders of the Huguenots).
 
Wouldn't we see parallels to the war of Mantuan succession?
And a Frenchman laying claim would complicate things for the Swedish and allies in both the Palatinate & Brandenburg. Palatinate-Neuenberg was allied with the Protestant Union, likewise Brandenburg were against the imperial faction until 1635. Taking their lands would sour any burgeoning alliance between the Elector and France, and the Franco-Swedish alliance is also in place. I think it'd weaken the French hand at least diplomatically.
 
Wouldn't we see parallels to the war of Mantuan succession?
And a Frenchman laying claim would complicate things for the Swedish and allies in both the Palatinate & Brandenburg. Palatinate-Neuenberg was allied with the Protestant Union, likewise Brandenburg were against the imperial faction until 1635. Taking their lands would sour any burgeoning alliance between the Elector and France, and the Franco-Swedish alliance is also in place. I think it'd weaken the French hand at least diplomatically.

Could make for interesting times in Germany. Especially if France's candidate - who'd be senior heir male doesn't get the crown, while the Emperor splits it between the heirs general. France might get involved in the alt-30ÝW alot sooner
 

Vitruvius

Donor
This would be a mess but I do see some opportunities to resolve the crisis as a domestic affair of the HRE in a way that was impossible OTL. OTL Rudolf dithered until well after the last Duke died while the two protestant claimants essentially went in and occupied the duchies to claim their inheritances. OTL they did that in part because the Protestant Union secured the backing of Henry IV. But now Henry IV may be pushing a different claimant. I don't think that gives Rudolf any impulse to suddenly favor Neuburg or Brandenburg, he's probably just as likely to make a sudden rash decision like he did OTL (briefly picking the distant Saxon claimant before being forced to back down). But if he's smarter (or gets better advice) it may give him more leeway in pushing to sequester the Duchies. OTL this was seen as a contravention of the two protestant princes rights and French intervention was cast as a king of mediation. But here French intervention would be seen as foreign interference in favor of a French claimant over the German ones so the German princes may be more willing to entertain a sequestration and regency in the Duchies while the succession is adjudicated in the Imperial courts. Spain would probably have more reason to get involved than it did OTL but it's still hamstrung by lack of men and money and the precarious Twelve Years Truce with the Dutch, only recently signed.

A lot depends on
1. What is the religion of de la Marck. I'm not sure in what faith he was raised OTL and of course he could always convert if he had lived longer. If he's a Calvinist that makes things much messier for Henry as far as internal French politics go but may make him more acceptable within the Duchies. Cleves was Lutheran but trending Calvinist due to Dutch influence, Julich was mostly Catholic but Mark and Berg where a mix of Catholic and Lutheran.
2. If Rudolf pushes sequestration does he still appoint his cousin Leopold as Imperial envoy (a bad move OTL), the nature of any regency probably dictates how the German princes react to it.
3. What is the position on the Dutch? OTL they sided with the French in supporting the Protestant Union. A protestant de la Marck puts them in a real bind while they certainly would be unwilling to support a Catholic de la Marck. I think of the two Germans they favored Brandenburg but like the rest of the Protestant Union would have favored an amicable settlement between the the two to preserve the unity of the Protestant cause. But with the recent signing of the Twelve Years Truce and caught between the candidate of France and the German protestants the Dutch may see it as a no win scenario and avoid intervening. This takes some pressure off of Albert and with essentially no foreign support perhaps the Protestant claimants are more amenable to Imperial mediation.
4. What is the position of England? Ditto much of the concerns the Dutch face. Almost certainly they just stay on the sidelines, with James hoping to fill the role of honest broker.
5. Is Henry IV still assassinated or does he live longer to direct French intervention. If he dies I'm not sure that France would go to bat for de la Marck, OTL the French did still invade OTL but only briefly to assist the Protestant Union in ejecting Leopold from Julich and once that was done they got out quickly. So de la Marck's claim evaporate if Henry dies. But an assassination may be less likely if de la Marck is Catholic because in this case Henry wouldn't be backing a German protestant but a French Catholic. So the French Catholics may not get so riled up about Henry moving against Spain/Catholicism/the Pope if the claimants are a French Catholic vs a couple of German Protestants.

While the internal politics with a Catholic de la Marck are ironically easier for Henry (and thus make French intervention all the more likely) they ironically provide and opportunity for the Emperor as well in so much as OTL Henry kind of stepped into the void left by Rudolf's failure to expeditiously handle the matter and assumed a role of arbiter, basically usurping the mantle of authority that by rights should have been the Emperor's. I read something a while back that referenced Archduke Albert in particular being pretty concerned by this. Being, I think, a more savvy ruler than his brother, he was very conscious of the damage this could cause the Emperor and was in particular most concerned that the Emperor's authority be respected by all claimants. More it seems than he was with securing the neighboring Duchies for a friendly Catholic prince (perhaps because that was nigh impossible). So in a way Henry backing a French candidate could give a capable Habsburg more room to maneuver in resolving the crisis. To the extent to which the succession conflict becomes confessionalized it also becomes nationalized in so much as the Catholic claimant is a foreign French prince while the protestants are German. This still holds to a lesser extent with the French claimant being Calvinist as he wouldn't be covered by the Peace of Augsburg and he'd of course still be in opposition to the German protestants. So if the Emperor could pivot that way he could use the anti-French angle as cover for an decision on the succession in such a way as to placate both the Catholic and Protestant factions within Germany. This would be made even easier if Neuburg's own son and heir Wolfgang Wilhelm completes his OTL conversion to Catholicism a little earlier than OTL. But I doubt Rudolf is the man to thread that needle.

Supposing the crisis does spiral out of control into war and Henry pushes to widen that war by building on his recent alliance with Savoy, and Spain is dragged in, to secure Northern Italy, the Spanish Road and their flanks in the Netherlands then the Dutch may possibly follow suit and the Twelve Years Truce could collapse early. i don't know if this means an early 30YW because the sides are stacked very differently with the French possibly opposed to the protestants and the Imperial succession not yet secured (Matthias had still not been named Rudolf's heir at this point and OTL Ferdinand II is even father down the totem pole). If it goes badly, and it easily could, it may quash any notion of French supporting Gonzague in Mantua down the road. At the very list this completely changes the course of French foreign policy in the 17th century. The precedent set by Henry IV of favoring the German protestants to further French interests is gone, instead French policy is built around breaking the Spanish Habsburg encirclement through alliances with neighboring powers, like Savoy, and the extension of French power through the installation of French clients, like de la Marck in Julich and Gonzague in Mantua. They'd make for a much less appealing partner to the Protestant Union in Germany or to England for that matter.
 
@Vitruvius I'm not sure as to the de la Marck religion, although they seemed to have a foot in both boots with a Guise/Bourbon-Montpensier marriage and a Condé/de la Marck match on the other side. Probably like their queenly cousin in England they'd adjust to the situation (Anne of Cleves was Lutheran when she wed Henry VIII, Calvinist under Edward VI and Catholic under Mary).

Now if they are Catholic it could go better for them in France - which means they might stay Catholic to keep on the Valois good side, if at the very least Catholic tolerant of Huguenots (think Anna d'Este or Renée de France). Once the whole Cleves issue emerges (Wilhelm der Reiche probably starts considering them as heirs presumptive to Johann Wilhelm) they might start considering changing their religion, but then Johann Wilhelm marries his 2e wife and everyone hopes/thinks he'll have kids with her, that Jakoba was just bad luck.

When he doesn't, I could see a liberal catholic François II/Jacques trying to arrange a Protestant match for their son, either to Sibylle of Cleves (Wilhelm's youngest daughter) or one of Wilhelm's granddaughters to shore up their claim.

Thatway, the king of France is supporting a Catholic Frenchman who just happens to have an heir wed to a Huguenot and is to inherit a Lutheran duchy on the Rhine.

How's that sound?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Seems as reasonable as anything. Though I'm not sure the dates/ages align to marry Sibylle (wasn't she Catholic anyways?). And beyond that I can't see the Duke of Nevers seeking a German (likely Lutheran) bride. Maybe a Dutch match if he wanted a protestant that would provide local support?

Though I'd add one last wrinkle that just occurred to me, which is that I believe de la Marck could only lay claim to Cleves and Mark as Julich, Berg and Ravesberg passed into the hands of the Dukes of Cleves by marriage a couple generations after the Nevers line branched off. Cleves and Mark we're the more protestant of the territories (I think, Cleves for sure, maybe Mark was more mixed). So a Catholic de la Marck actually could struggle in that respect. Also that leaves the traditional Ducal court in Dusseldorf outside of their claimed territories. Which complicates things as IIRC the estates of the Duchies and some kind of Union and so may not look favorably on a claim that splits up the territories (if it that's what actually happened OTL).
 
Seems as reasonable as anything. Though I'm not sure the dates/ages align to marry Sibylle (wasn't she Catholic anyways?). And beyond that I can't see the Duke of Nevers seeking a German (likely Lutheran) bride. Maybe a Dutch match if he wanted a protestant that would provide local support?

Though I'd add one last wrinkle that just occurred to me, which is that I believe de la Marck could only lay claim to Cleves and Mark as Julich, Berg and Ravesberg passed into the hands of the Dukes of Cleves by marriage a couple generations after the Nevers line branched off. Cleves and Mark we're the more protestant of the territories (I think, Cleves for sure, maybe Mark was more mixed). So a Catholic de la Marck actually could struggle in that respect. Also that leaves the traditional Ducal court in Dusseldorf outside of their claimed territories. Which complicates things as IIRC the estates of the Duchies and some kind of Union and so may not look favorably on a claim that splits up the territories (if it that's what actually happened OTL).

The Jülich duchies is the reason that I suggested the de la Marcks try to shore up their claim by a marriage to one of Wilhelm's daughters (I simply suggested Sibylle since she was the last to marry (she might marry earlier here)) or granddaughters.

As to a Dutch match, I could see it happening. Especially if François II survives. His wife's sister married Willem the Silent, so it would be in line with family connections.
 
Been looking at this idea again, and I noticed something interesting: with the exception of Catherine's marriage to the Prince de Porcien, the other de la Marck girls only married after their brothers were dead, i.e. once they were heiresses of some colour.

Which means that with their brother(s)'s survival - and there being issue from their marriages in all likelihood - these girls aren't necessarily going to wed the same. I mean, it's one thing to get the comtesse de Rethel to wed an Italian French heir, it's another thing when she's not bringing much to the table (land wise). He was Henri II's favourite IIRC, so he might get married off elsewhere. Same goes for her sister's Guise marriage.

Would their brothers' survival change anything as pertains to their marriages? What?
 
In a conversation with Vitrivius, we basically agreed that a surviving (Catholic) Kleve might change the future of n Germany. OTL in the 30YW the Habsburg emperor had to get the support of the Catholic League (which was a club where the duke of Bavaria said "jump!" and the League asked "how high?"). The make-up of the Catholic League would be altered by a surviving de la Marck state. Bavaria/the Catholic Wittelsbachs would no longer be the only big Catholic power - in fact, it might only be co-president rather than chairman, vice-chairperson, secretary and the entire executive committee.
 
Top