When people think of a French Patagonia, they tend to think on the XIX century and of
Orelie Antoine de Tounens's project of a Mapuche indepenpendent kindom, ruled by him and backed by France. The possibilities of success for this project were, for many reasons, extremly few.
However, a century earlier, in 1764, the French carried out a more serious attempt to colonise the region. In that year, the French, led by
Louis de Bougainville founded a settlement on some islands they calles
Îles Malouines. It was aimed to be a permanent settlement. Most of the colonists were French canadians who had left Canada after the British took control of the place. Bougainville himself had fought in the French and Indian war.
The idea was, in a way, to recreate French Canada, but in the southern part of the Americas. This settlement was suppose to be only the begining of a much larger project. Eventualy, from the safety of their base, the French were supposed to make alliances with the natives in the continent, and establish different settlements on the coast.
The colonny went very well, as the colonizers were used to the type of harsh weather they found there. But eventually the Spanish found out of the settlement, and protested. The French argued that it was better for the Spanish that the islands were French than British. But the Spanish didn't buy it, stating that all Patagonia and all Southern islands belong to them. Eventually, the French backed down, aknowledge Spanish rights and rendered them the islands (in 1767). Most colonists left and were replaced by Spanish settlers. Some chose to stay.
But what if Spain had been distracted by internal problems, and hadn't pushed enough? What if the French had stayed, expanded the colonny, and had tried to settle in the continent? Would they have succeeded?