WI: A Different Thatcher Succession

Whilst reading the Alan Clark Diaries, I noticed that Cecil Parkinson was being expected to be Thatcher's successor and would be expected to become Prime Minister by 1985 at the very earliest until the Sara Keays controversy came out in which he acted horrendously about and then Norman Tebbit was suspected as a candidate to rise up and become Prime Minister at a later time until the Brighton Bombing injured his wife and he chose to back out of front-line politics in favour of looking after her, although it was noted that he would have a hard time winning an election.

These two reasons seemed to be why Thatcher rejected Dennis' advice to resign in 1988 or 1989 and chose to carry on until 1990 where she then resigned as Prime Minister due to the Poll Tax and a leadership challenge from Michael Heseltine. So what I am asking is what if Cecil Parkinson never met Sarah Keays, meaning no affair or what if Margaret Tebbit was barely injured in the Brighton Bombing?

Cecil was apparently tipped for Foreign Secretary after a very successful campaign in the new Hertsmere constituency by Thatcher until she was told about 'developments' in his private life, without Keays to have these developments with, he gains the job. I think that Thatcher, if the Alan Clark Diaries were correct, would either resign in 1986 at the earliest to allow Cecil to be acquainted with the public and win an election on his own or resign after the 1987 election and allow Cecil to take charge a year later. What I'm wondering is what changes he would make as Prime Minister, whether he would abandon the Poll Tax or reshuffle the Cabinet, and how the public and Opposition would react to him, his time as Foreign Secretary would be far more supportive of Thatcher's ideals then Howe's were and could avoid the damage of having disagreements with both the Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, would Howe stay as Chancellor instead of Lawson succeeding him?

Onto Norman Tebbit, without Margaret seriously injured, albeit both are still affected in a minor way and his media profile being boosted with some type of fierce anti-IRA speech being made then Thatcher may be 'forced' to make him Home Secretary over the objections of Whitelaw. He would probably enact lots of populist 'law and order' acts against the IRA with early momentum allowing him to push them forward, while Whitelaw maybe threatens to resign as Deputy Prime Minister if Tebbit isn't stopped, his personal stock with the public rises as he is able to use the fact that he was a victim in his favour. In 1986 IOTL, it was supposed that Thatcher would resign and it would be a contest between Tebbit and Heseltine, Thatcher and Tebbit had disagreements during her time over Westland, Lybia and her choice in polling people so she could either resign in 1986 or 1988 leaving Tebbit to battle for control against Heseltine and win. Tebbit would be far more confrontational with some elements of the Cabinet, in my opinion, as he reshuffles and causes a split to emerge over Europe, I recall him saying that the Poll Tax was a good idea so perhaps he pushes onwards until he gets overthrown by Heseltine in 1991.

Neither would probably win 1992, Parkinson's chances with Keays are more friendly but Tebbit would either be running a divided government or Heseltine would be. I see the Good Friday Agreement being doomed away if Tebbit became PM due to far more bad blood between the two sides and it would take far longer to come to some type of accord to be reached.

What does AH.com think?
 

Thande

Donor
I personally think it's a very interesting possibility and I've done it a few times on the list of PMs thread. Some of Thatcher's "I will go on and on and on" megalomania seems to have stemmed from the fact that all of her chosen successors, one after the other, fell to scandals while her ideological foes like Heseltine carried on, so she was paranoid about giving up the reins of power.
 
I personally think it's a very interesting possibility and I've done it a few times on the list of PMs thread. Some of Thatcher's "I will go on and on and on" megalomania seems to have stemmed from the fact that all of her chosen successors, one after the other, fell to scandals while her ideological foes like Heseltine carried on, so she was paranoid about giving up the reins of power.

Apparently she planned on resigning after ten years as Conservative Leader, then Keays happened, then she planned to resign after the next election, then Tebbit chose family over politics after Brighton, and then she just decided to wait until someone else came along.

Looking at this again, it is possible to have the POD of Parkinson never meeting Keays and having her ideal people in power. Parkinson becomes Foreign Secretary as planned while Tebbit is never moved from Employment, the Brighton Bombing occurs but Margaret has minor injuries and Tebbit gets moved to Home, over Whitelaw's objections, and all this happens while Howe either stays in Chancellor or is moved somewhere else since Parkinson gets Foreign. She resigns at some point between 1986-1989, leaving Parkinson to gain the leadership while having a quick fight against Meyer or Heseltine which he wins, although 1987 may get a smaller majority due to less forceful personality or larger due to less "Thatcher grr" stigma. I don't know Parkinson's stance on the Poll Tax so that's in the air but either way I think 1992 would go hung or Labour since Parkinson doesn't have the appeal that Major did at the time.
 

Thande

Donor
She resigns at some point between 1986-1989, leaving Parkinson to gain the leadership while having a quick fight against Meyer or Heseltine which he wins, although 1987 may get a smaller majority due to less forceful personality or larger due to less "Thatcher grr" stigma. I don't know Parkinson's stance on the Poll Tax so that's in the air but either way I think 1992 would go hung or Labour since Parkinson doesn't have the appeal that Major did at the time.

I think you're underestimating Parkinson's potential. Pre-scandal he had a lot of public appeal in the same kind of way as Nigel Farage does now: he had this suave caddish 'Jaguar owner' image that a lot of aspirational middle class people didn't like exactly, but they respected. I think he could pull it out in 1992, assuming Labour is still led by Kinnock and the economic situation is the same. Which of course is probably a bad thing for the Tories in the long run, but there you go.

(Watch the 1983 election night broadcast when they go to Parkinson in his constituency and you'll see what I mean).
 
I think you're underestimating Parkinson's potential. Pre-scandal he had a lot of public appeal in the same kind of way as Nigel Farage does now: he had this suave caddish 'Jaguar owner' image that a lot of aspirational middle class people didn't like exactly, but they respected. I think he could pull it out in 1992, assuming Labour is still led by Kinnock and the economic situation is the same. Which of course is probably a bad thing for the Tories in the long run, but there you go.

(Watch the 1983 election night broadcast when they go to Parkinson in his constituency and you'll see what I mean).

Interesting.

I'd see Howe being less like Lawson in terms of the ERM in that he talks to Thatcher and then Parkinson about shadowing it and then it gets vetoed by either one of the two, Howe may be pro-Euro but I don't see him being like Lawson in being a secret about planning to shadow the Deutschmark. I see a form of Black Wednesday happening but not at the extent of OTL, if so then 1992 is a Major majority or more, 1997 is an obvious Tory loss but not nearly to the extent of OTL.
 
Interesting possibility but I just don't see Thatcher resigning. I love her and I agree that the self destruction of her chosen replacements was a factor but when push comes to shove I just can't see her stepping down unless she has a gun to her head.
 
Interesting possibility but I just don't see Thatcher resigning. I love her and I agree that the self destruction of her chosen replacements was a factor but when push comes to shove I just can't see her stepping down unless she has a gun to her head.

I'd say the self destruction was what made her unable to resign unless said gun was placed on her head but I imagine that after saying "not yet, Cecil" for a few years, she'll be seeing an intervention. Dennis, Norman and many others believed that she would do better if she had resigned in 1988 or 1989 to keep the crowds cheering.

It's unlikely but if she has two successors at the ready and the people around her point out that she had been putting Cecil off for a while she would reluctantly resign from the Prime Minister position with an agreement of being granted the vacant Foreign Secretary seat after 1987.

One question would be what could change from Howe staying the Chancellor, he probably wouldn't privately shadow the Deutschmark as that wasn't really his style from what I've read but any other changes?
 
Interesting possibility but I just don't see Thatcher resigning. I love her and I agree that the self destruction of her chosen replacements was a factor but when push comes to shove I just can't see her stepping down unless she has a gun to her head.

I would tend to agree with this. Between the need for Parkinson to stay in favour sufficiently long for him to claim the leadership, which this is predicated on - favourites always seem to have a tendency to fall by the wayside for one reason or another, just as they did under Blair too - and the need for Thatcher to willingly resign, I just don't see this as particularly likely. Not ASBish, but not very likely. Like all strong-willed people of power the longer she stayed in place the more she became convinced of her own infallibility and irreplacability and I frankly simply don't think the need for a spiritual successor is why she didn't voluntarily quit in the 1987 parliament historically.

I think if you were angling for this you would need an alt Brighton, which didn't take her out but somehow damaged her overall health over the longer term, forcing her into retirement in '88 or thereabouts. A politically untainted Parkinson could then win the ensuing leadership contest on a continuity platform, aided by a mild sympathy vote.

I don't know Parkinson's views on the Poll Tax at the time, but I'm not entirely sure that's all that relevant anyway. Without the rupture of 1990 I'm not sure I can see a U-turn on the issue happening in that Parliament, there will be too much pressure from Thatcher in retirement to hold course, and the Nicholas Ridley, Michael Portillo sort of people, who will be milling around in the upper stations of a Parkinson premiership. And then assuming the Gulf happens, they'll seize on that as the electoral cure-all in the exact same way that some people on here are all too keen to do in 'Thatcher holds on in '90' scenarios. Then factor in trouble over Europe and the economy, Parkinson's inherent un-John Majorness, and I think Labour would win in 1992 pretty comfortably.

Another thing that occurs for me is if Heseltine does go for the leadership in this alt '88 open contest - and I strongly suspect he would - and gets a relatively respectable vote - and I also think he would - it would be hard for Parkinson not to invite him back into the Cabinet. That would add to the whole Howe-Lawson internal trouble dynamic aspect you had IOTL, and would perhaps make this cabinet resemble John Major's post-1992 OTL Cabinet. And if he doesn't, then Heseltine might very well challenge him for the leadership again in that Parliament - and he may very well win. If he does then the Tory chances in '92 improve markedly.

If Parkinson does go down to defeat in 1992 that could lead to an interesting fallout, in my opinion, because the right might blame Parkinson for running the Thatcher legacy into the ground in the same way that the right blamed Poppa Bush for running the Reagan legacy into the ground IOTL, rather like John Major IOTL - Parkinson would appear as a Gordon Brown figure, with everything bad happening almost as soon as he took over - Poll Tax riots, the Cabinet at each other's throats, a recession; unlike OTL, Thatcher would escape political blame for all of this. And if Parkinson becomes enstranged from the right, that could lead to the birth of an earlier form of *modernisation... fronted by Parkinson's former special advisor, and Cabinet protege, one Michael Portillo.
 
Last edited:
Top