WI: A different Louisiana Purchase/War of the Pyrenees

Chain of events:
Spain does better in the War of the Pyrenees and doesn't sign the Second and Third Treaties of San Ildefonso.
Louisiana remains in Spanish hands.
Shortly after, due to growing financial difficulties and the realization that the US could take New Orleans but may be willing to buy it, Spain sells New Orleans and all possessions east of the Mississippii to the US.

Plauasble?

What happens?

I expect that eventually the US will take a large part of the rest later by force.
 
It's possible that the Spanish could throw some of their other territories in with the deal. They didn't have much use for the territories that were later won from Mexico.
 
This is definitely an interesting line of thought. IMO the primary difficulty is that the possibility of North American empire will not be a transient dream for Spain and Carlos IV as it was for Napoleon. Spain has a vested interest in North America; OTL Spain spent vast sums of money to attempt to keep its possessions, even after the independence movements of the 1810s.

Nevertheless, Spain OTL was frequently pressed for cash in the period. I'm not sure, however, how a price of $12-15 million (which the US might be willing to pay based on OTL) compares with, say, Spain's annual revenue from its North American provinces, particularly the gold/silver shipments. Obviously, the same won't preclude the other revenue stream, but the fact that North America is a source of revenue, means that Spain may be in general less willing to consider a sale. This makes me think that you'd need some kind of major change in the decision makers in Madrid, rather than just different circumstances for the decision to come about. Such a compromise isn't out of character for Godoy (based on concessions he gave France OTL).

I also think you would need to make real the threat of US aggression to secure New Orleans should the sale not happen. Given Spain's imperial outlook (compared to Napoleonic France's), I think that the diplomatic gain of avoiding a war with the US would perhaps be paramount.
 
It's possible that the Spanish could throw some of their other territories in with the deal. They didn't have much use for the territories that were later won from Mexico.

The parts north of the Red River may work very well for what I've got in mind.

I'm rather more interested as to what's going to happen in Europe.
 
[I hate it when I Google something by accident and can't ever refind it]

I read some where that in 1806 the Americans sent a delegation to Madrid, attempting to buy Florida [Congress having pre approved the moneys].

Spain recognizing it couldn't hold Florida, if the US wanted to take it, the Court officials negotiated a deal [ almost the same as the 1819 Adam-Otis].
However the King took a personal dislike to the American Delegation and refused to sign.

So if Spain Sells, I could see a combined Adam-Otis/Louisiana being sold.

However this has to be before, or in, 1803, as the US was preparing to Take New Orleans, if Spain/France wouldn't sell.
 
Everything depends on what caused this.
An even less succesful spanish campaign will have its butterflies on the french actions elsewhere, the treaties were signed in 1796 and 1800, so before and when napoleon had just come to power.

Would it mean a france that is less expansive, unlikely considering napoleons nature. How ever no idelfonso treaties mean that spain will not be at war with great britain, and when the events start happening they may side with GB against napoleontic france.
If spain and GB are allied this may give a new twist to things. It might make the the us a little more hesitant to take louisiana by force. When it does happen, and the Anglo-American war still does take place, it will give the us a challenge as it will then not just be GB thats fighting them but also spain.
 
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