WI: A different Glorious Revolution?

Is the scenario outlined possible?


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Recently, I posted a thread asking what might have happened if William of Orange's invasion of England had failed, only to find an older thread asking the same question. I've thought a bit more about it and read a few more threads on the subject, mainly from the Historum forums, and I've come up with a new scenario. On other forums, it was agreed that James II had already made too many enemies, and that if he hadn't been captured or tried to escape, he might have been killed by his own soldiers. Here's my scenario:

In 1688, an ill wind sinks all/part of William of Orange's fleet and William with it. Fearing that they might be exposed, Princess Anne and her husband flee to Denmark or the Netherlands. James plans reprisals against those who plotted to depose him, but before the year is out he is assassinated by a Protestant soldier or group of Protestant soldiers.

Now James' eldest daughter is in the Netherlands, the second in Denmark or the Netherlands with her busband, and his baby Catholic son in England surrounded by Anglicans. What happens now? Would Parliament ask Mary, Anne and George to come back to England? Would they name Mary as Queen or name James Junior as King after having him rebaptised as an Anglican and clearing up the warming pan myth? If the latter, who would be the regent? Obviously, Parliament wouldn't want Mary of Modena.

What are your thoughts? Is this scenario possible?
 
James jnr would become James III and it is likely that his regents would be the Duke of Berwick and potentially, the Earl of Marlborough. Mary of Modena might have a say in private.
 
A lot might hang on the view of - wait for it - Judge Jeffreys.

Iirc, as Lord Chancellor he had possession of the Great Seal, so could issue orders with some semblance of legality. My guess is that he'd support Mary as Regent and let the Catholics go hang, but I could be wrong.
 
James jnr would become James III and it is likely that his regents would be the Duke of Berwick and potentially, the Earl of Marlborough. Mary of Modena might have a say in private.
A lot might hang on the view of - wait for it - Judge Jeffreys.

Iirc, as Lord Chancellor he had possession of the Great Seal, so could issue orders with some semblance of legality. My guess is that he'd support Mary as Regent and let the Catholics go hang, but I could be wrong.

A combination of these I think.
Mary of M is having no political say, the wounds of the W3K still run deep and the King absolutely has to be Anglican at this point, though she'll have influence on his personal household.
A Regency Council seems more likely than a single Regent to start with, albeit by the time of James III majority politics may have coalesced around a single Regent. ITTL I think our political parties would be said to have roots around the factions on the Council.
 
Mary of M is having no political say, the wounds of the W3K still run deep and the King absolutely has to be Anglican at this point, though she'll have influence on his personal household.

How much? The regency council may not want to take the chance, however slim, of James III's mother secretly converting him back to Catholicism. I wouldn't be surprised if the pressure forces her to leave for France or Modena immediately.

A Regency Council seems more likely than a single Regent to start with, albeit by the time of James III majority politics may have coalesced around a single Regent. ITTL I think our political parties would be said to have roots around the factions on the Council.

Who might end up on the regency council? The Immortal Seven? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invitation_to_William

I've also had a thought about James III's queen. I'm not sure how much say he might have had in who he might marry, but I can see him with either Princess Louise Dorothea of Prussia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Luise_Dorothea_of_Prussia), Sophia Dorothea of Hanover (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophia_Dorothea_of_Hanover), or Marie Louise of Hesse-Kassel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landgravine_Marie_Louise_of_Hesse-Kassel).
 
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How much? The regency council may not want to take the chance, however slim, of James III's mother secretly converting him back to Catholicism. I wouldn't be surprised if the pressure forces her to leave for France or Modena immediately.
Well she may be limited to vetted options from the council if they think her hand is too free.

Who might end up on the regency council? The Immortal Seven (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invitation_to_William)?
Were they the ones who took JIII into custody when William's ship goes down?
I've also had a thought about James III's queen. I'm not sure how much say he might have had in who he might marry, but I can see him with either Princess Louise Dorothea of Prussia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Luise_Dorothea_of_Prussia), Sophia Dorothea of Hanover (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophia_Dorothea_of_Hanover), or Marie Louise of Hesse-Kassel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landgravine_Marie_Louise_of_Hesse-Kassel).
I think Luise Dorothea is out due to marrying 1700.
Who else is available?
 
Were they the ones who took JIII into custody when William's ship goes down?

They were the ones who invited William to come over to England with an army. I'm not sure, but I think IOTL James II was only taken into custody after William landed. Now that I think about it, it wouldn't be all of the Immortal Seven. Charles Talbot, Earl of Shrewsbury, was with William on the Dutch fleet, so he might end up dead too. Some of the others might also end up dead or in exile when/if James learns of their involvement in the attempted invasion.

I think Luise Dorothea is out due to marrying 1700.
Who else is available?

With a POD in 1688?

The three ladies I listed are the only prominent Protestant noblewomen I could find who would be old enough for James III to marry. Again, though, I could be wrong. Of course, there is also Ulrika Eleanora of Sweden, but that might depend on England's relationship with Denmark and Princess Anne.
 
How does James III exit the stage. I agree that he was pretty much doomed post the arrest of the Seven Bishops (only his Father's visit to Parliament can trump that catastrophe in terms of self inflicated wounds in British Political History) but the precise details of the termination of his reign matter a lot. Is he assasinated by a lone gunman in a book depository? A military coup a la Allende led by Marlborough? Civil War mark 2 as the Immortal Seven decide to fight on even in the absence of William of Orange?

With your solider shooting him option the key factor is who is around at the time with proximity to a.) James III, b.) the Great Seal and most importantly c.) gets the Royal Guards to follow their lead.
 
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