WI a different Canadian Rebellion of 1837?

[Stéphane Dumas]

I just read this about the Canadian rebellion of 1837 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebellions_of_1837 and I wondered what if William Lyon Mackenzie and Louis-Joseph Papineau had menaged to join their forces?

 

[unsunghero]

I just read this about the Canadian rebellion of 1837 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebellions_of_1837 and I wondered what if William Lyon Mackenzie and Louis-Joseph Papineau had menaged to join their forces?

I think in order for the rebellions (1837 - 1838) to succeed you would need a massive POD. You would need some reason for at least half of the populace to want a republic - the people of Upper Canada (Ontario) had roots that dated back to the Empire Loyalists and even before. They were quite happy to a part of the Empire. This was the fundamental reason why Mackenzie's rebellion failed - he didn't have the support of the people. Further, you would need to find a way for him to be a lot smarter. He dropped a briefcase bearing the names of ALL of his sympathizers and supporters and LEFT it for the advancing militia/British regulars to find. As for Papineau, the more conservative French wanted to stay part of the Empire because of the priveges they had, and because 'change is a bad thing.' However, if he can raise more men and get some good rifles and ammunition (probably from the Americans), he might have a better chance than he did in OTL. Of the two, Papineau's rebellion really did have a chance to succeed.

 

[Valamyr]

A larger pre-1763 french population might do the trick. Canada would still fall (with more of a fight), but youd have a more substantial population occupying the whole st-lawrence valley. This would make any english loyalists moving in marginal at best.

So on linguist grounds and general hatred of the british, a full-scale popular revolt could happen. Its much more convincing to want a country when you have a better population base as well. The whole of Canada would thus raise in arms, and could inflict the second major colonial defeat to the British army in less than 60 years.

But it would take alot, yes. American support would go a long way.

 

[unsunghero]

You're right about the larger population base deterring English settlement. That probably would have happened if more young, eligible women had been drawn to New France to marry the trappers. Then they would eventually settle down and concentrate on raising kids; in OTL the men outnumbered the women, so the men spent most of their time trapping and exploring. That was part of the reason why Montcalm lost to Wolfe - the French were outnumbered to begin with. I think if, post Revolutionary War, there were more French in upper Canada, the Empire Loyalists would be prone to settle more in the Maritimes, and York Peninsula (w/Toronto, etc. is). Thus there would be no Eastern Townships, and probably few if any English in Montreal. Also if English guarantees of French law and preservation of Catholic faith in New France after Wolfe bests Montcalm are more ambiguous, you could eventually get enough support for a successful armed rebellion.