I made a post about this before, but it did not get much traction. Likely due to the title. So I want to post about this scenario again, with a few added details. I would also like to link to past threads I have found addressing the topic that I think add some interesting points
The Youtuber Mr. Beat created an AH scenario that I find interesting. Having Stephen Douglass win the Presidential election of 1860, but then have Lincoln run again and win in 1864. Leading to an ACW starting 4 years later than OTL. So I would like to ask others what they think the most likely outcomes of this POD would be. How might this alternate ACW differ from OTL, and what the butterflies would effect the rest of the world?
The international impact of a delayed ACW interests me a lot. It would most likely delay the Confederation of Canada. It would also likely prevent the French invasion of Mexico, since Nap III attempted to take over the country only due to the US being occupied in the ACW. How thus would lead to Benito Juarez handling the financial issues of his government though, I am not sure.
This TL's ACW would likely be different due to the number of states in this TL, and alternate migration patterns. In OTL there were movements to split California in two, with the southern part being named Colorado, and an attempt to split Texas in two, with the east being named Jacinto. Both movements were halted by the start of the ACW, so in this TL they may come to fruition. In such a case I think it may be likely that this alternate Colorado joins the CSA, along with Jacinto, but the remainder of TX may now be in question if it remains with the Union or not.
Alternate Wars with Native Americans are likely as well. The Second Battle of Fort Defiance lead to conflicts between the US army and Navajos from 1860 to 1864. Mainly ending due to the actions of Kit Carson after the defeat of the Confederates at Glorietta Pass. The Bascom Affair of 1861 lead to military conflict with Americans and Apaches, that immediately bled into the ACW. With the ACW being delayed, their may be a higher presence of US soldiers in New Mexico to fight Apaches and Navajos before the start of this alternate war. Leading to battles of a larger scale in that area than in OTL's ACW between Unions and Confederates. The Dakota Uprising of 1862 would likely not occur as in OTL, as it was mainly due to delays in payments to the Dakota people from the US Govt. due to the War, and local food providers refusing to sell supplies to Dakota people on credit. This would then likely impact future conflicts between the US and other tribes like the Lakota and Cheyanne. The events that lead to The Snake War may also be altered as well depending on the migration of Americans to the areas of Oregon, Nevada, California, and Idaho in this ATL. The blocking of the Homestead Act in Mr. Beat's ATL would of course be of benefit to Native Americans by preventing the influx of American settlers than came in OTL.
The actions of many African Americans would also likely be very different in this TL and lead to alternate scenarios. The most notable scenario I can think of at the time of writing this involves Martin Delany and Robert Campbell. Before the ACW they traveled to Abeokuta, in modern day Nigeria, to sign agreements with local leaders to allow African Americans to immigrate and settle in the area. They ended up abandoning this plan in part due to the advent of the ACW, as well as British actions around Lagos taking more control of the area (4). Perhaps with a delayed ACW Delany and Campbell may have worked harder at this plan. Leading to many escaped slaves during this alternate ACW to travel to Abeokuta and establishing a country like Liberia there.
Whether or not delaying the ACW would give the Confederates and advantage I am not sure. It may allow for more industrial bases to improve their capabilities in Southern States that surpass that of OTL. Such as the Tredegar Iron Works gaining a Bessemer converter for steel production, something CS agents tried to get threw the blockade in OTL. This scenario would of course allow more time for the production of development of weapons in the Northern States too of course. The New Haven's Arms Company would be allowed 4 more years to make a sell Henry Rifles, likely making them much more common during this alternate ACW.
An interesting scenario that might put the CSA in a better position regards the plans for a Transcontenental Railroad. Among the different routes suggested threw land survey, the southernmost option planed a railroad from Texas to California threw the New Mexico territory. This was considered the easiest route to build, and the one that politicians from Southern states advocated for against all others. It was not until the Civil War, and the removal of those opposing other routes, that the route of the first transcontinental railroad of OTL was settled upon. In TTL with a Southern President such as Johnson as POTUS, the southern plan for the railroad may go threw. So that by the start of this alternate CW There is much of the railroad already built threw Texas, giving Confederates from Texas a greater advantage in supplying an army sent to capture areas of New Mexico. Another section of the railroad may also be built from California into New Mexico as well, unless it is captured by confederates in TTL it would also allow a greater Union presence in New Mexico and larger scale battles in that area
WI ACW delayed four years?
Is a quicker Union victory plausible if Civil War is delayed till 1865? How much more advantages does the North have compared to 1861 in terms of industrial, population, and technological growth? Also, can an anti-slavery amendment still be passed if the Civil War is over relatively quickly...
www.alternatehistory.com
WI: US Civil War delayed/averted: effects on US foreign relations and the world?
So, assume that Abraham Lincoln does not get elected in 1860, and Stephen Douglas becomes president instead. He throws some bones to WASP conservatives, maybe even negotiates a provision that would allow for gradual abolishment of slavery in the southern states with compensation for the...
www.alternatehistory.com
The Youtuber Mr. Beat created an AH scenario that I find interesting. Having Stephen Douglass win the Presidential election of 1860, but then have Lincoln run again and win in 1864. Leading to an ACW starting 4 years later than OTL. So I would like to ask others what they think the most likely outcomes of this POD would be. How might this alternate ACW differ from OTL, and what the butterflies would effect the rest of the world?
The international impact of a delayed ACW interests me a lot. It would most likely delay the Confederation of Canada. It would also likely prevent the French invasion of Mexico, since Nap III attempted to take over the country only due to the US being occupied in the ACW. How thus would lead to Benito Juarez handling the financial issues of his government though, I am not sure.
This TL's ACW would likely be different due to the number of states in this TL, and alternate migration patterns. In OTL there were movements to split California in two, with the southern part being named Colorado, and an attempt to split Texas in two, with the east being named Jacinto. Both movements were halted by the start of the ACW, so in this TL they may come to fruition. In such a case I think it may be likely that this alternate Colorado joins the CSA, along with Jacinto, but the remainder of TX may now be in question if it remains with the Union or not.
Alternate Wars with Native Americans are likely as well. The Second Battle of Fort Defiance lead to conflicts between the US army and Navajos from 1860 to 1864. Mainly ending due to the actions of Kit Carson after the defeat of the Confederates at Glorietta Pass. The Bascom Affair of 1861 lead to military conflict with Americans and Apaches, that immediately bled into the ACW. With the ACW being delayed, their may be a higher presence of US soldiers in New Mexico to fight Apaches and Navajos before the start of this alternate war. Leading to battles of a larger scale in that area than in OTL's ACW between Unions and Confederates. The Dakota Uprising of 1862 would likely not occur as in OTL, as it was mainly due to delays in payments to the Dakota people from the US Govt. due to the War, and local food providers refusing to sell supplies to Dakota people on credit. This would then likely impact future conflicts between the US and other tribes like the Lakota and Cheyanne. The events that lead to The Snake War may also be altered as well depending on the migration of Americans to the areas of Oregon, Nevada, California, and Idaho in this ATL. The blocking of the Homestead Act in Mr. Beat's ATL would of course be of benefit to Native Americans by preventing the influx of American settlers than came in OTL.
The actions of many African Americans would also likely be very different in this TL and lead to alternate scenarios. The most notable scenario I can think of at the time of writing this involves Martin Delany and Robert Campbell. Before the ACW they traveled to Abeokuta, in modern day Nigeria, to sign agreements with local leaders to allow African Americans to immigrate and settle in the area. They ended up abandoning this plan in part due to the advent of the ACW, as well as British actions around Lagos taking more control of the area (4). Perhaps with a delayed ACW Delany and Campbell may have worked harder at this plan. Leading to many escaped slaves during this alternate ACW to travel to Abeokuta and establishing a country like Liberia there.
Whether or not delaying the ACW would give the Confederates and advantage I am not sure. It may allow for more industrial bases to improve their capabilities in Southern States that surpass that of OTL. Such as the Tredegar Iron Works gaining a Bessemer converter for steel production, something CS agents tried to get threw the blockade in OTL. This scenario would of course allow more time for the production of development of weapons in the Northern States too of course. The New Haven's Arms Company would be allowed 4 more years to make a sell Henry Rifles, likely making them much more common during this alternate ACW.
An interesting scenario that might put the CSA in a better position regards the plans for a Transcontenental Railroad. Among the different routes suggested threw land survey, the southernmost option planed a railroad from Texas to California threw the New Mexico territory. This was considered the easiest route to build, and the one that politicians from Southern states advocated for against all others. It was not until the Civil War, and the removal of those opposing other routes, that the route of the first transcontinental railroad of OTL was settled upon. In TTL with a Southern President such as Johnson as POTUS, the southern plan for the railroad may go threw. So that by the start of this alternate CW There is much of the railroad already built threw Texas, giving Confederates from Texas a greater advantage in supplying an army sent to capture areas of New Mexico. Another section of the railroad may also be built from California into New Mexico as well, unless it is captured by confederates in TTL it would also allow a greater Union presence in New Mexico and larger scale battles in that area
