In March 1999 a group of pro-European Union members of the Conservative Party split away from the main party, disaffected with William Hague's eurosceptic leadership of the party.
One of their purported aims had been to create an SDP-style split within the Conservative party, with pro-European members (such as Ken Clarke) acting as the Gang of Four. As we know, however, this was unsuccessful. The Pro-Euro Conservative Party put up candidates in the European elections and achieved a risible 1.4% of the vote and no seats. In the Kensington and Chelsea by-election, won by Michael Portillo, the party achieved a slightly more respectable 3.8% to take fourth ahead of UKIP, but still was unable to make any real headway on the major parties. One of the reasons cited for their electoral failures was that their name was made up of four of the most unpopular words in the English language "Pro" "Euro" "Conservative" and "Party".
However, what if there had been a deeper split in the Conservative Party? Let's imagine that Ken Clarke had actually rebelled and joined the group - perhaps due to some personal falling out with William Hague, or a deeper anti-European stance of the party. At the time Clarke was one of the most popular politicians in the country - quite an achievement considering that he was a Conservative - and had actually been the candidate in the Conservative leadership election of 1997 that the public preferred. Throw in a handful of other pro-European Conservatives MPs and Peers, and I can see the party having about 5-10 seats in parliament.
To improve their chances electorally, let's give them a better name - maybe the 'Progressive Party' (a name thrown around whenever the Conservatives think about rebranding themselves), the 'Democratic Party' (to take a lead from across the pond), or the 'Reform Party' (after the Reform Group, many of the members of which will have rebelled).
Opinion polling at the time had suggested that 11% of the public would support a pro-European Conservative party. If they were to achieve such figures or higher at the general election in 2001, it's hard to see them getting more than a couple of seats, thanks to FPTP - though in seats where they have incumbent MPs, it might be okay. If, however, they were to achieve around 11% at the European Parliament elections in mid-1999, taking mainly from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, they would easily come fourth in the polls, and might even sneak third, giving them somewhere between 7 and 12 seats in European Parliament.
How long would such a party last? What would this mean for the Conservative Party (now overwhelmingly Eurosceptic, and fighting not only Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but a branch of itself) electorally? How would UKIP fare (with the Conservatives now being a more credibly Eurosceptic party?