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Here's the Challenge: Have the China win the Second Sino-Japanese War without American troops involved. It does not have to be the Republic of China, it may be the CCP, Yuan Shikai's government, the Qing, or even a completely fictitious government. But it has to win. It doesn't need Taiwan, Manchukuo, Tibet, etc, but it has to have at least forced out the Japanese, including those treaty ports and troops garrisoned under the Japanese sphere of influence.

Note, America can't get involved in a war with Japan at all. No Lend-Lease. No sanctions against them either. On the other hand, it can't do the opposite, eg, supplying free weapons and arms to Japan either.

Note, if you want to, you could have the UK, France, the Netherlands, even the Third Reich as allies, but they cannot do a majority of the fighting, nor are they allowed to use the war in China as a distraction for an invasion of Japan or it's empire.

After the war's over, there can't be any new spheres of influence either, so the Soviets can't simply ride through Manchuria. And there can't be another civil war.

Is it possible? If so, how might it happen? What would be the effects?
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