WI: A Chinese Victory in the Pacific War, without American Intervention

Here's the Challenge: Have the China win the Second Sino-Japanese War without American troops involved. It does not have to be the Republic of China, it may be the CCP, Yuan Shikai's government, the Qing, or even a completely fictitious government. But it has to win. It doesn't need Taiwan, Manchukuo, Tibet, etc, but it has to have at least forced out the Japanese, including those treaty ports and troops garrisoned under the Japanese sphere of influence.

Note, America can't get involved in a war with Japan at all. No Lend-Lease. No sanctions against them either. On the other hand, it can't do the opposite, eg, supplying free weapons and arms to Japan either.

Note, if you want to, you could have the UK, France, the Netherlands, even the Third Reich as allies, but they cannot do a majority of the fighting, nor are they allowed to use the war in China as a distraction for an invasion of Japan or it's empire.

After the war's over, there can't be any new spheres of influence either, so the Soviets can't simply ride through Manchuria. And there can't be another civil war.

Is it possible? If so, how might it happen? What would be the effects?
 

Tielhard

Banned
Ummm.

If the Americans are not fighting the Japanese it implies that they will not be supporting the KMT the Soviets on the other hand will continue to supply the Communists (at far lower volumes) for reasons unrelated to the Japanese invasion. So eventually the KMT will fall. The question is then, how, indeed if in this time-line the Communists will be strong enough to defeat the Japanese when the KMT fall. To thier advantage they no longer have to fight the KMT, to thier disadvantage they have no useful buffer in the south.

WTF is Japan doing for fuel if it is still in China and not at war with the USA? Is is cozying up to the British, at war with the Dutch or has it invaded Siberia. Answers on a post card please.
 
Ummm.
If the Americans are not fighting the Japanese it implies that they will not be supporting the KMT the Soviets on the other hand will continue to supply the Communists (at far lower volumes) for reasons unrelated to the Japanese invasion. So eventually the KMT will fall. The question is then, how, indeed if in this time-line the Communists will be strong enough to defeat the Japanese when the KMT fall. To thier advantage they no longer have to fight the KMT, to thier disadvantage they have no useful buffer in the south.

One small problem Tielhard.

The Soviets supplied the KMT, not the Communists.
 
1921 moscow
Chaing ki keck, and Mao ze Dong, meet in Russia while establishing the Chinese Comunist party [CCP] and the Komitang [KMT]

1928 Peiking
Chaing unhappy with the Common Front with the Communists, makes his move to force the CCP out of the Coliation.

1929 western China
During a Attack by the KMT both Mao & his inner circle are captured and killed. This leaves the KMT, to be regonized as the legitimate Government.

1931 Shanghia
Sick of the Corruption General Huan Tu Li, stages a Coup. Chaing is killed and a Milatary Junta take over.

1933 Great Wall
The Japanese attack And Capture the Great Wall along Manchuria. China is forced to agree to a 50 mile demilatarized zone south of the wall.
General Li Begins a forced program of Upgrading the Milatary and Forcefully "Removing" [with a Lead Medal] any Corrupt Officers.

1934 Russia
China places a order for 250 Polikarpov I-16 type 4 fighter planes.

1935 Russia
China orders a additional 250 planes

1936 Northern China
Japanese forces enter China, and the second Sino-Japanese war begins.
China orders 1000 I-16 type 5 planes.

1937 Hianan
Japanese navy captures Hianan Island and numerous other small islands along China's Coast.
Czechsolvia
China orders 1000 T-32 Assault Guns [tanks] from the Skoda Arms works they also buy a licence to produce them.

1938 North China
Several thousand senior Officers are "Removed" when their Divisions are shown to be unfit for combat.
Slowly China's milatary is gearing up, and becoming Combat ready.
750 of the T-32s have been devilered, due to Germany's occupaction the final 250 will not arrive
China orders another 1000 planes from Russia. China is winning most dogfights against the Inferior Jap Zero.

1939
Japan has now committed over a million men, in 100 divisions to the invasion, China has just over 200 divisions defending. Japan introduces the A6M Zero, and begins to win most of the air battles.
China orders 1200 Hawker Hurricanes from Great Britian, along with a licence.
They also order 1000 tanks from France, only half of these will be delivered before Septembre.
In Novembre not haveing the production capibility China transfers the licence for the hurricane to Douglas Aircraft, and orders 1200 planes.

1940
China has reached it's goal of getting all 300 of it's divisions conbat ready, [This is the total number China had OTL]
25 divisions attack Hainan Island and recapture it. Meanwhile Japan has sent another 50 divisions into the Chinese War.
The front now streghs across inner Mongolia from the yellow sea to the Gobi Desert, a few miles north of Peking,
China has ordered 2200 M3-Lee tanks from the US.
France Falls

1941 Germany
Seeing the problems Japan is having Hitler does not offer Japan a place in the Steel Pact. Japan does not enter the Axis.
China
Japan has been pushed back to the Great Wall, During this second Battle of the Wall. large sections are completly destroyed, as Chinese forces Push thru.
Operation Barbarossa goes off as per OTL.
China orders 2500 M4 Sherman tanks from the US.
China Orders another 2000 Hurricanes.

1942 Manchuria
Fifty divisions swept thru Mongolia and enter Manchuria fom the west, while two trusts of 50 divisions enter from the south.
With a Million and a half men in Manchuria, Japan is evenly matched, and now Japan has the defenders advantage.
With superior Tanks and Aircraft, China manages to push Japan off the Manchurian Plains in the North & West.
Germany begins the long withdraw from Russia.
US enters the European War.

1943 Korea
China has pushed the Japanese into the Korean Mountians, In South Manchuria.
Both Japan and China have lost over a million men in the war.
China has a 2/1 advantage in manpower, but Japan has the Mountains, and the defense advantage.
The War has boosted China's industrial production, while Japan is facing increased shortages of raw Materials.
Both sides realize they are looking at a stalemate,
Cautiously the two start diplomatic discussions.

1944 Tokoyo/Peking
A permanant cease fire in place is signed by the two sides.
France
D-day june 6th
V-G day decembre 18th.


ooc; the original post said no embargo, so Japan can still buy from Indonesia/Indochina
 
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As Moscow had set both groups up they supplied both sides, but after the KMT took over the government, the KMT got a larger share of the aid.
 
That and the Germans actually helped form KMT military units also, so maybe they can send some aid? IOTL they knocked that off when Germany begain seeking allies and saw one in the Japanese.
 
the Soviets on the other hand will continue to supply the Communists (at far lower volumes) for reasons unrelated to the Japanese invasion. So eventually the KMT will fall.
Woz I want a king sized supper duper cast iron citation for your "not".
Not necessarily. SU was supplying ROC, probably with the aim of keeping ROC & Japan fighting, so they aren't attacking SU... SU fighter aircraft, complete with pilots, were on KMT side, for instance. Which isn't to say CCP wasn't getting weaps & money, too, but KMT was in power...
WTF is Japan doing for fuel if it is still in China and not at war with the USA? Is is cozying up to the British, at war with the Dutch or has it invaded Siberia. Answers on a post card please.
Probably buying 80% from U.S., same as OTL. Unless TTL prohibits any aid to Japan...? Which means U.S. could still sell weapons to ROC, too, right? Deep discounts on surplus P-36s & WWI-era DDs...?
 
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I'd say if China fights more effectively in 1931 war, it could get the approval of Nazi Germany and becoming a main military partner (well it did in OTL but I'm talking big, like tanks and planes, not just Stahlhelms and subs), would get access to modern weapons. Then the Japanese attack China like in OTL in 1937.
The Chinese however, stop them around Beijing or so (maybe between Beijing and Shanghai), whilst causing problems for Japanese ships with U-Boats. Slowing the invasion near Beijing, however, could lead to a Beijing Massacre and not a Nanjing one. If this happens (meaning the invasion was stopped as far north as possible), then China may either:
i) Sue for peace, while they can. However, this TL calls for a Chinese victory.
ii) Fight the Japanese.

The KMT takes option 2 and seeks more German/Soviet help. The Germans place their bet on China completely by this time (1939), and with the Molotov pact, are able to "easily" send materials over to China via USSR. USSR, on the other hand, thinks that Japan still has a fair chance at winning so they give China weapons.
Also, this TL will be made more possible if Mao Zedong dies or comes to terms with the KMT. For the sake of violence (and to make sure Mao never comes up again), I'll say that the Japanese, in a daring but doomed campaign, strike at wherever it was Mao ended up after the Long March, fight Mao and his comrades, and crush the CCP leadership before being themselves wiped out by the KMT troops. With no more CCP, the KMT can even more easily get ahold of the situation.
In mid-1940, China has taken Beijing and pretty much everything it had in 1937. During the last 3 years China has set up weapons facilities, so it can manufactre its own equipment now to some degree. The Japanese, knowing there can be no taking over China, try to keep Manchuko. But the ROC demands that in inheriting the territory of the Qing, it must have Manchuria, and does not make a truce with Japan.
The USSR, seeing that Japan is losing, stops giving stuff to the KMT, though German arms are still coming into China in small amounts (since the war happened in Europe). But by this time China has already gained the strategic advantage, and more industries to support the war effort are being created. After heavy fighting and millions of military and civilian deaths, the major part of Manchuria is taken by the middle of 1942.
There are no more supplies coming from Germany at all anymore due to the war with the USSR.
By 1943, Chinese armies are in the process of capturing what is left of Seoul, where intially greeted as liberators, are now seen as warfare agitators. In Feburary, they have gotten far past Seoul (almost to Pusan) and the Japanese try an amphibious landing at Inchon. It traps some of the Chinese spearheads, but reeinforcments arrive from the north and finally in April 1944 the Japanese are crushed and the remnants surrender as Chinese troops enter Pusan.
The Chinese Kill/Death ratio, though, is a hefty 3:1, and people are tired of the warfare. The Japanese had a naval blockade going for the last seven years, and the effects are wearing down on the Chinese populace.

At the Treaty of Shanghai, Japan cedes all of Korea, but keeps Taiwan. It is, however, made to pay a large sum of reparations for the damage done. Japan accepts these unfavourable terms, for even though it currently has a large naval advantage, the Japanese leaders see that there is no hope for taking over Asia and that if they continue the war, it would just end in China developing air superiority (since they are already building a superior industrial base) and destroying the Japanese Navy.

At WW2's end, China arises as a major victor along with the Soviet Union, and a Cold War gradually starts to develop between the two nations. Korea becomes a puppet of China, and Japan's military leadership is eventually ousted because they manage the economy badly. The new leadership is more liberal, and sides with China in the Sino-Soviet Cold War, though it does do trade with the USSR. The USA has good relations with Japan and China, but as it did not enter WW2 until 1945 (The Soviet Union was gaining on Berlin by the end of '45 and the USA decided to liberate France), did not get a strong NATO alliance in Europe. The USSR is even more unstable than in OTL since it has to hold onto all of Germany and Italy, and the USA and UK make an anti-Soviet bloc centered in the former colonies.

The result is that, by the end of the 50's the Cold War has centered istelf on the Middle East (Israel and Oil). Nuclear weapons are first obtained by the USA in 1950, then the USSR in 1956, and finally China and Japan explode a nuke in Xinjiang in 1964. The USSR has the most adavnced rocket technology, and sends a man to the moon in 1970. The Cold War is still mainly fought bewteen the USA and USSR, with China and its Asian allies as "neutrals" somewhat at odds with the USSR. This encourages the USA to attempt to turn China into a client state by giving it economic favours but this is only somewhat sucessful. China develops a strong Asian alliance with Japan and the former colonies in SE Asia.

So in 1985 we have:

1st World: USA, UK, France, most of Africa, India, Australia, and most of South America. Client States in Middle East.
notes: Africa and South Amrica have some states that are either Soviet-alligned or neutral.

2nd World: USSR, Eastern Europe, Germany, Italy. Client states in S. America, Africa, and the Middle East.
Notes: Germany has been re-armed and shares a heavily-guarded border with France.

3rd World: China, Japan, Korea, SE Asia.

*********************

Holy crap, did I just inadventently make the 1984-world?
 
I'd say if China fights more effectively in 1931 war, it could get the approval of Nazi Germany and becoming a main military partner (well it did in OTL but I'm talking big, like tanks and planes, not just Stahlhelms and subs)
The Chinese however, stop them around Beijing or so (maybe between Beijing and Shanghai), whilst causing problems for Japanese ships with U-Boats.
I'm unaware of Germany ever selling ROC subs. (AFAIK, the Chinese didn't get any subs til the SU sold them a few.) Aircraft, yes. More sales of tanks & aircraft to ROC would have benefitted Germany's economy from '31-9, & might have encouraged a ramp-up to full war production in '39.:eek:
the Japanese, in a daring but doomed campaign, strike at wherever it was Mao ended up after the Long March, fight Mao and his comrades, and crush the CCP leadership before being themselves wiped out by the KMT troops.
Very doubtful. I'm unaware of Japan making any distinction between CCP & KMT. And Chiang was trying to figure a way to make a deal with Japan so he could crush Mao himself. Whether ROC was capable of defeating Japan while Chiang was only half-committed, seeing CCP more dangerous to China in the long run (with reason, IMO), I seriously doubt.
By 1943, Chinese armies are in the process of capturing what is left of Seoul, where intially greeted as liberators, are now seen as warfare agitators. In Feburary, they have gotten far past Seoul (almost to Pusan) and the Japanese try an amphibious landing at Inchon. It traps some of the Chinese spearheads, but reeinforcments arrive from the north and finally in April 1944 the Japanese are crushed and the remnants surrender as Chinese troops enter Pusan.
OK, Yamashita isn't MacArthur, & Japanese 'phib ops were (charitably) amateurish. An attempt at Inchon is liable to be a SNLF debacle.
The USA ..did not enter WW2 until 1945
:confused: "Leaping to the aid of the victorious"?:p (BTW, who said that?)
did not get a strong NATO alliance in Europe.
With the Syracusans:p being a clear & growing threat to the U.S.? I really, really doubt it.
3rd World: China, Japan, Korea, SE Asia.
:confused:With a stronger industrial base from the '30s on, unified gov't from the '40s, no Cultural Revolution, & a market of over 500 million people in China alone? Plus export opportunities to India of another 400-500 million?:rolleyes::confused: Really not.
 
I

Very doubtful. I'm unaware of Japan making any distinction between CCP & KMT. And Chiang was trying to figure a way to make a deal with Japan so he could crush Mao himself. Whether ROC was capable of defeating Japan while Chiang was only half-committed, seeing CCP more dangerous to China in the long run (with reason, IMO), I seriously doubt.

Well, in the latter years, they did. In Max Hastings' Nemesis, its been said that the CCP were left alone in their redoubt because it was a non-strategic territory the Japanese didn't want, and that there were instances of trading of food/arms between the ChiComms and the Japanese too.
 
I'm unaware of Germany ever selling ROC subs. (AFAIK, the Chinese didn't get any subs til the SU sold them a few.) Aircraft, yes. More sales of tanks & aircraft to ROC would have benefitted Germany's economy from '31-9, & might have encouraged a ramp-up to full war production in '39.:eek:

1Very doubtful. I'm unaware of Japan making any distinction between CCP & KMT. And Chiang was trying to figure a way to make a deal with Japan so he could crush Mao himself. Whether ROC was capable of defeating Japan while Chiang was only half-committed, seeing CCP more dangerous to China in the long run (with reason, IMO), I seriously doubt.

2OK, Yamashita isn't MacArthur, & Japanese 'phib ops were (charitably) amateurish. An attempt at Inchon is liable to be a SNLF debacle.

:confused: "Leaping to the aid of the victorious"?:p (BTW, who said that?)

3With the Syracusans:p being a clear & growing threat to the U.S.? I really, really doubt it.

4:confused:With a stronger industrial base from the '30s on, unified gov't from the '40s, no Cultural Revolution, & a market of over 500 million people in China alone? Plus export opportunities to India of another 400-500 million?:rolleyes::confused: Really not.

#1: I was just trying to get Mao killed in a convenient way; it isn't the essence of the TL. Either way the CCP needs to not be a factor for this thing to work.

#2: Alright, we have an Asian Sealion. The Japanese are desperate at this point, and want to hold Korea. In fact the amphib inbvasion failing makes China's victory easier.

#3: Okay, a smaller NATO (without Germany or Italy at all, and possibly a divided France, and/or Soviet-controlled Low Countries), not a a weaker one.

#4:I meant "3rd World" in the sense of a 3rd power bloc (in addition to USSR and USA), not a bunch of impoverished nations.
 
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