WI: A Catholic Wind? Or William or Orange's fleet sinks?

This is inspired by the recent threads about James II. When William or Orange attempted his first invasion of England a strong gale scattered the fleet and forced him to postpone the invasion by a month. So what if the wind was more disastrous and not only damaged the fleet more severly but also caused the ship William was on to sink? What would happen next? Would the plans to remove James collapse without William? Would France take advantage of the chaos in the Dutch Republic to invade? Would Mary or Anne make an attempt of the their own to gain the throne from James? Or would the opposition turn their hopes to a Regency for the baby Prince of Wales, raising him as a Protestant?
 
Well there still is the Frisian branch of the house of Nassau (Ottonian branch), which descents from the younger brother of prince William the Silent of Orange, John the Elder, though through the female line they also descent from William the Silent.
So if the situation is bad enough the Frisian Nassaus might step in earlier.

This wouldn't prevent trouble with France, at the time 'Europe's superpower', though. Hence why the Dutch Republic wanted to prevent a direct border with France, which also had some expansionist tendencies at the time.
In a way what Napoleon IOTL did 1810 was, what the Dutch Republic had always feared. In fact France quite rapidly surpassed Spain (!) as the biggest threat to the Dutch Republic.
 
I presume his ship sinking implies William is drowned?.

Absent William:

1. The War of Spanish Succession goes very differently. Probably Louis makes good his claim to most (at least) of the Netherlands. The actual succession to the Spanish throne might end up pretty much as OTL, though, but a much more powerful France at the end of it.

I think that, absent William and his army, which also implies absent Mary, any English rising against James will not be successful. A successful rising required an alternate sovereign (either as such , or as some sort of Regent, for the more legally squeamish). No William, I can't see Mary doing it on her own, and Ann was certainly not the person for that. Monmouth's gone, none of the other bastards of Car II are in the running.

And any other possible pretenders (eg the house of Orleans) are Papist, so no "improvement" on James.

The invitation to William was an act of desperation . If it failed, the plotters would still have to try to go ahead (they were in too deep to pull back), but I think they would fail, militarily.

Ideas of a "Regency" are without legal basis. The only way that could happen would be to defeat James in battle and force him from the throne. Pretty much as OTL, but without William and Mary. Seizing the infant and raising him Protestant was seriously proposed OTL, both at the time of the Revolution and later. But James would not turn him over (surprise !) . The big problem with it, is that the Whigs, who were the revolutionary element, had staked their position on the premise that the infant was supposititious . Having taken that position, they could not turn round and admit his legitimacy. And of course, such an idea was quite impossible unless James was first deposed. Which could only be done by battle.
 
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I presume his ship sinking implies William is drowned?.

Absent William:

1. The War of Spanish Succession goes very differently. Probably Louis makes good his claim to most (at least) of the Netherlands. The actual succession to the Spanish throne might end up pretty much as OTL, though, but a much more powerful France at the end of it.

I think that, absent William and his army, which also implies absent Mary, any English rising against James will not be successful. A successful rising required an alternate sovereign (either as such , or as some sort of Regent, for the more legally squeamish). No William, I can't see Mary doing it on her own, and Ann was certainly not the person for that. Monmouth's gone, none of the other bastards of Car II are in the running.

And any other possible pretenders (eg the house of Orleans) are Papist, so no "improvement" on James.

The invitation to William was an act of desperation . If it failed, the plotters would still have to try to go ahead (they were in too deep to pull back), but I think they would fail, militarily.

Ideas of a "Regency" are without legal basis. The only way that could happen would be to defeat James in battle and force him from the throne. Pretty much as OTL, but without William and Mary. Seizing the infant and raising him Protestant was seriously proposed OTL, both at the time of the Revolution and later. But James would not turn him over (surprise !) . The big problem with it, is that the Whigs, who were the revolutionary element, had staked their position on the premise that the infant was supposititious . Having taken that position, they could not turn round and admit his legitimacy. And of course, such an idea was quite impossible unless James was first deposed. Which could only be done by battle.

Yep. I thought it was implied enough to not have to directly state.

So who think that the Spanish Netherlands would go to France? Or do you mean the Dutch Republic? Because if Spain gos to Philip de Anjou I'm not sure if the Spanish Netherlands would go to France. The most I can see is France garrisoning the Netherlands in place of the Dutch Republic.

Without William Mary would be useless. She's no longer heiress to England, her husband is dead and she's childless. She may end up having to go back to England, hat in hand. And Anne wasn't that ambitious, though she might be persuaded to be by the Marlboroughs. But I agree that the conspirators would still try to go ahead with the plan, though without a dutch army to scare the Nobles and army into switching sides I think the plan would definitely fail.

That's what I thought. Though did anyone high up really think that the Prince of Wales wasn't James II's son? The idea seems so far fetched. But yeah they can't have their cake and eat it to.

Any idea if the War of the Grand Alliance would go better for France without an English threat? Cause I can see it going better for the French. Hell we might even see James II ally with Louis XIV formally.

With James on the throne until death it will be interesting to see how the British Isles change. Will England and Scotland still unify, as it was one of the main goals of the Stuart monarchs? Would Parliament stay weaker via a vis the Crown? Would we see religious toleration centuries earlier?

And what about the reign of James III & VIII? How would his reign turn out? Who would he marry? Would England still become the World's preeminent power with a stronger monarchy?
 
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