I presume his ship sinking implies William is drowned?.
Absent William:
1. The War of Spanish Succession goes very differently. Probably Louis makes good his claim to most (at least) of the Netherlands. The actual succession to the Spanish throne might end up pretty much as OTL, though, but a much more powerful France at the end of it.
I think that, absent William and his army, which also implies absent Mary, any English rising against James will not be successful. A successful rising required an alternate sovereign (either as such , or as some sort of Regent, for the more legally squeamish). No William, I can't see Mary doing it on her own, and Ann was certainly not the person for that. Monmouth's gone, none of the other bastards of Car II are in the running.
And any other possible pretenders (eg the house of Orleans) are Papist, so no "improvement" on James.
The invitation to William was an act of desperation . If it failed, the plotters would still have to try to go ahead (they were in too deep to pull back), but I think they would fail, militarily.
Ideas of a "Regency" are without legal basis. The only way that could happen would be to defeat James in battle and force him from the throne. Pretty much as OTL, but without William and Mary. Seizing the infant and raising him Protestant was seriously proposed OTL, both at the time of the Revolution and later. But James would not turn him over (surprise !) . The big problem with it, is that the Whigs, who were the revolutionary element, had staked their position on the premise that the infant was supposititious . Having taken that position, they could not turn round and admit his legitimacy. And of course, such an idea was quite impossible unless James was first deposed. Which could only be done by battle.