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What if, during the 19th century (perhaps in 1848 or 1863, but it can also be an alternate revolution) an independent Poland is created from a successful revolt? Perhaps Russia collapses into civil war at some point, or there is a republican revolution which distracts the army.

What would happen?
How would the rest of Europe react?
Would the response be different in the case of an independent Republic of Poland, a restored Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth as a republic a la 1793, and one as a constitutional monarchy a la pre-1793?
If they choose monarchy, what candidates for the crown could they scrounge up, and what would change in regards to the candidate chosen to be King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania?
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