WI: A 19th Century Polish Uprising Succeeds?

Dorozhand

Banned
What if, during the 19th century (perhaps in 1848 or 1863, but it can also be an alternate revolution) an independent Poland is created from a successful revolt? Perhaps Russia collapses into civil war at some point, or there is a republican revolution which distracts the army.

What would happen?
How would the rest of Europe react?
Would the response be different in the case of an independent Republic of Poland, a restored Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth as a republic a la 1793, and one as a constitutional monarchy a la pre-1793?
If they choose monarchy, what candidates for the crown could they scrounge up, and what would change in regards to the candidate chosen to be King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania?
 
What if, during the 19th century (perhaps in 1848 or 1863, but it can also be an alternate revolution) an independent Poland is created from a successful revolt? Perhaps Russia collapses into civil war at some point, or there is a republican revolution which distracts the army.

The November Uprising of 1830 would have had a difficult time succeeding, but I don't think it was entirely doomed. Congress Poland still posessed meaningful autonomy at the time, and had an actual army which could just march out of its barracks into the field, which any subsequent uprisings (including a hypothetical 1905 one, which I personally find to be ASBish) would no longer posess, and would be pretty much guaranteed to fail.

The November Uprising's chances could be increased if it coincided with an equivalent of 1848 or the Crimean War. (I once considered writing a timeline where both an equivalent of the Uprising, Crimean War and Spring of Nations happen at the same time, but I have no idea if or when I will ever get down to expanding it beyond this proto-draft. That I accidentally deleted the svgs of the maps from my computer during spring cleaning, and will have to start from scratch if I want to introduce any changes, didn't help.)

What would happen?
How would the rest of Europe react?

It depends upon the circumstances. Although Prussian/German hostility can more or less taken for granted and Austria also won't be friendly. Although in a hypothetical pseudo-Crimean War it might be a co-belligerent for a time.

Would the response be different in the case of an independent Republic of Poland, a restored Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth as a republic a la 1793, and one as a constitutional monarchy a la pre-1793?

I don't think they'll care.

If they choose monarchy, what candidates for the crown could they scrounge up, and what would change in regards to the candidate chosen to be King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania?

While an uprising just might secure Poland, I doubt wether it could liberate Lithuania too. It would need either very large-scale foreign intervention or a complete collapse of Russia.
 
What if, during the 19th century (perhaps in 1848 or 1863, but it can also be an alternate revolution) an independent Poland is created from a successful revolt? Perhaps Russia collapses into civil war at some point, or there is a republican revolution which distracts the army.

What would happen?
How would the rest of Europe react?
Would the response be different in the case of an independent Republic of Poland, a restored Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth as a republic a la 1793, and one as a constitutional monarchy a la pre-1793?
If they choose monarchy, what candidates for the crown could they scrounge up, and what would change in regards to the candidate chosen to be King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania?

Practically impossible without massive foreign intervention. An independent Poland would be a threat to Prussia and Austria, so if it looks like the Polish are gonna win then you'd see Prussian and Austrian troop poring into Congress Poland. So unless France is willing to send troops to aid the Poles, its gonna fail.
 
Only point when Poland realistically could regain independence are Napoleonic wars, and Napoleon deciding to strength up Poland (by dismantling Austria and Prussia). After 1772 Poland was reason of instability in eastern Europe, with every European country being either indifferent, or pro-partitions. Poland popping out in the middle of XIX century would cause rather quick intervention... Especially, as Austria, Prussia and Russia signed a treaty against (hypotetical, resurgent) Poland.
 
Any successful uprising of Poles against Russia would have quickly caused a German (Prussian) -Austrian military intervention. Both those countries occupied Polish lands as well. Poles had against them a coalition of "Three Black Eagles", each of them strongly against Polish independence.
BTW, during the Kościuszko Uprising Polish forces had to fight both Russian and Prussian armies.
 
The 'Three Black Eagles Problem' requires an unconventional (=improbable) solution. Here is mine.

Russia: is defeated in the pseudo-Crimean War which is contemporary with the Polish uprising*. A Polish-Ottoman alliance temporarily discourages Russian revanchism.
Austria: without Russian aid, the '1848' (again contemporary with the uprising*) goes much worse for it and causes it to lose Italian areas, Galicia and Hungary. After the dust settles the Austrian remnant barely shares a border with Poland, and reclaiming parts of it is rather low on its list of priorities.
Prussia: Napoleon III is rather fond of Poland, giving Prussia a possible western front to worry about if it attacks. Seeing that Russia is being defeated and Austria is falling to pieces,the Prussians decide to remain neutral.

*Of course, the probability of all this happening at once is...low.
 
Or perhaps no November Uprising; instead of that Congress Poland rise in 1848 together with peoples of Hungary, Austria and Prussia; the spark initiates guerilla uprising in Lithuania and another rising in Galicia and Prussian Poland; Russians are defeated by combined forces of Poland and Hungary with quiet support from the Ottoman Empire. Prussia is weakened by internal problems, so is Austria, so eventually a somewhat smaller (especially in the east) Poland is reborn (Congress Poland, Galicia, Prussian Poland) allied with Hungary and the Ottoman Empire.
Just a loose idea, there are many factors to consider. This scenario is possible, but not very probable.
 
To be honest, only plausible way for Poland to regain independence, is being annexed by one country, rather than splitted between three. It'd not only reduce chance for neighbor intervention during uprising, but also make possible support of uprising.
 
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