WI: 9/11 doesn’t happen?

Assuming 9/11 was uncovered before it was pulled off what would the immediate and long term effects be?

What would change about US/world history from then on?
 

GI Jim

Banned
Stating the glaringly obvious Afghanistan is certainly not invaded in 2001, and its doubtful that the atmosphere is right for invasion of Iraq either.

What knock on effects this would have in the middle east could be monumental. An arab spring in 2011 with Saddam still in charge could see a repeat of the Libyan civil war but with much more bloodshet for Iraqis. My inital thoughts on this also are that if Saddam was still in charge, the Iraqi situation would leave him still in command by 2012. The Iraqi internal security forces and indeed the state itself would have been very hard if not impossible to be overthrown by public pressure. Saddam had put down rebellions before and could certainly do it again.

Would Bush have been re-elected in 2004 without the "rally round the flag" effect? I'm unsure. In other nations too this could impact, Tony Blair in the UK would maintain his reputation as a successful centre left premier. Perhaps that means less of a left wing insurgency within the Labour party and hence no Jeremy Corbyn in 2015? A lot of change certainly.
 
Bush is more than likely a one-termer like his daddy without the perceived need for strong leadership. I'll let others discuss the geopolitical implications. Instead, I'm more interested in the cultural impact of a world without 9/11 since OTL this had a profound impact on the American psyche.

For starters, that 90s post-Cold War optimism doesn't die and we're a far less paranoid people. We would see this reflected in culture in ways that are really hard to quantify. Shows like Battlestar Galactica and 24 would likely not exist and there might not be a trend in movies towards gritty realism. Music would be less political if Bush isn't able to get support for an invasion of Iraq. This is just what I can think of off the top of my head.
 
Bush would still push for an Iraq invasion, he wanted this done from the very beginning of his tenure and he was hell bent on removing Hussein. However, without 9/11 there would be less support for an invasion both domestically and internationally. In fact without 9/11 Democrats would most likely be in control of both Houses of Congress by 2003, meaning that if Bush wants to get re elected he'll have to go to war.
 
Bush would still push for an Iraq invasion, he wanted this done from the very beginning of his tenure and he was hell bent on removing Hussein. However, without 9/11 there would be less support for an invasion both domestically and internationally. In fact without 9/11 Democrats would most likely be in control of both Houses of Congress by 2003, meaning that if Bush wants to get re elected he'll have to go to war.

Yeah, but that would bite him and the neo-conservatives big-time in the butt. If he does succeed in using this as a short-term gain for the 2004 re-election, it would just make the 2008 Recession hit the GOP even harder, with it being blamed on Bush and the Republicans in general.

Granted, one of the potential big things that I don't see discussed is that without 9/11, focus would be shifted to other issues such as the Enron scandal
 
First thing Bush doesn’t win the election in 204. IOTL the economy during the early 2000s was week. So we would see Bush lose the election because of the poor state of the American Economy. So the Democrats win, the 2004 election. Then the 2008 crash happens. Because the Democrats are in charge, they are unable to blame the crash on he Republicans. Also ITTL the Democrats would be the ones bailing out the Banks. So in 2008 we’d see a large libertarian movement pop out as a reaction to the Bank Bailouts. We’d also see a strong leftist Occupy movement in 2008, similar to OTL. The difference is that ITTL the Occupy movement would be against the Democratic Party. So Obama would not be able to win by getting people left of him to vote for him. Instead these people would likely vote for a plethora of smaller left-wing third parties. We’d see John McCain win the Republican primary, in spite of what the libertarians want, and because the Democrats are blamed for the 2008 crash, McCain would win the Presidency. ITTL America would be more politicalized and there would be a greater number of radicals. Also politics would be based more around economics that cultural issues. Gay Marriage might take longer if the left and the Democrats have more bad blood between the two.

In the Middle East the Taliban would be eventualy overthoughn. They were pretty unpopular among the Afghan people, and there state infrastructure was week. Afghanistan would continue to be a battleground between versus ethnic groups. We might see Afghanistan break apart into multiple states. In Iraq Saddam Husain would continue to rule into the Modern day. His state, unlike the Taliban was very strong. In the Arab spring there might be a few protests against him, but those would be quickly crushed. In the Middle East with Saddam still in power the Ba’athism and Pan-Arabism might be more popular than IOTL.
george-w-bush-approval-rating-chart-2b5edf28af8b1e68.jpg
 
No 9/11 means no War on Terror, and thus jihadist terrorism doesn't expand and grow into an international phenomenon.
 
We’d see John McCain win the Republican primary, in spite of what the libertarians want, and because the Democrats are blamed for the 2008 crash, McCain would win the Presidency.

43. George W. Bush (2001-2005)
44. John Kerry (2005-2009)
45. John McCain (2009-2013)
46. Barack Obama (Since 2013)
 
The late 1990s/early 2000s last until 2008. The Great Recession hits the populace of the so-called End of History HARD, since the lack of post-9/11 cynicism means they will be even less prepared for it, psychologically, than in OTL. Think about Japan going from its 1980s pseudo-cyberpunk peak to the Lost Decade, on a global scale.
 
43. George W. Bush (2001-2009)
44. either John Kerry or Joe Biden (2009-17)
45. Donald John Trump in either 2012 or if like OTL with a partial recovery 2016. Why?

The late 1990s/early 2000s last until 2008. The Great Recession hits the populace of the so-called End of History HARD, since the lack of post-9/11 cynicism means they will be even less prepared for it, psychologically, than in OTL. Think about Japan going from its 1980s pseudo-cyberpunk peak to the Lost Decade, on a global scale.
^^ This shows why Trump is a shoein for 2012 or 2016.
 
How would 9/11 of been uncovered anyway? What would need to change for the CIA or whoever to stop it?

The FBI had been tracking al-Qaeda and was apparently pretty well on top of it. When people were playing the blame game after 9/11, one of the more popular targets was poor hand-over from the Clinton to the Bush administration.
 
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