WI 2010 midterms weren't as bad for Democrats?

[Pericles]

What if Democrats won all races they lost by 4% or less in 2010? I was making alternate results and this is what I got;
2010 Senate elections
Harry Reid-Democratic: 53-4
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 45+4
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

Illinois: Alexi Giannoulis(D) defeats Mark Kirk(R)
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak(D) defeats Pat Toomey(R)

2010 House elections
John Boehner-Republican: 228+49 49.7%(+7.1%)
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 207-49 46.9%(-6.3%)
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Incumbent Bobby Bright(D) defeats Martha Roby(R)
Illinois 8: Incumbent Melissa Bean(D) defeats Joe Walsh(R)
Illinois 10: Daniel Seals(D) defeats Robert Dold(R)
Minnesota 8: Incumbent Jim Oberstar(D) defeats Chip Cravaack(R)
Nevada 3: Incumbent Dina Titus(D) defeats Joe Heck(R)
New Hampshire 2: Ann McLane Kuster(D) defeats Charlie Bass(R)
New Jersey 3: Incumbent John Adler(D) defeats Jon Runyan(R)
New York 13: Incumbent Michael McMahon(D) defeats Mike Grimm(R)
New York 25: Incumbent Dan Maffei(D) defeats Ann Marie Buerkle(R)
North Carolina 2: Incumbent Bob Etheridge(D) defeats Renee Ellmers(R)
South Dakota at-large: Incumbent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin(D) defeats Kristi Noem(R)
Texas 27: Incumbent Solomon Ortiz(D) defeats Blake Farenthold(R)
Virginia 5: Incumbent Tom Perriello(D) defeats Robert Hurt(R)
West Virginia 1: Mike Oliverio(D) defeats David McKinley(R)

2010 gubernatorial elections
Haley Barbour-Republican: 26+3
Jack Markell-Democratic: 22-4

Florida: Alex Sink(D) defeats Rick Scott(R)
Maine: Eliot Cutler(I) defeats Paul LePage(R)
Ohio: Incumbent Ted Strickland(D) defeats John Kasich(R)

In the state legislatures, Democrats win the Colorado State House(so get a trifecta in Colorado), win the Minnesota State House (but not the Minnesota State Senate), and get a majority in the Oregon State Senate so have a trifecta there, and take the New York State Senate so get a trifecta there. Democrats come closer in other state legislative chambers but still lose. So Republicans still take the House but get a smaller majority, Democrats have a 55-45 majority in the Senate and do better in the gubernatorial races and further down-ballot. Democrats have trifectas in Oregon, Colorado and New York while preventing Republicans from gaining trifectas in Florida, Ohio and Maine.

What effect would these alternate results have on US politics? Would Democrats be able to take back the House in future elections? What kind of PoD could lead to these results? How would these results impact the Obama presidency and then the 2016 election?

 

[Pericles]

Any thoughts?

 

[THE OBSERVER]

Is this your Bin Laden killed in October 2010 Scenario?

 

[Pericles]

Is this your Bin Laden killed in October 2010 Scenario?

That could be a PoD, though I hadn't actually decided on the PoD.

 

[AussieHawker]

The redistricting impacts will matter a lot. Perhaps Obama manages to retake the House in 2012. They only need 11 seats from this lesser losses and they have a few more incumbents to hold down red territory.

Democratic Trifectas

Oregon, Colorado and New York

The Current Oregon map is already close to a max Democratic gerrymander, thought it could have eliminated the competitive districts and replaced them with more Democratic ones.

Colorado is currently close to proportionally partisan. Which are 3 democratic districts, 1 competitive (leaning Democratic) and 3 Republican. A Democratic gerrymander would be 5 Democrat, 1 Competitive (leaning Republican) and 1 Republican.

New York still has the Independent Democratic caucus, Democrats that vote Republican in the legislatures to consider. But assume they aren't an issue. Instead of 15 Democrat, 9 Competitive and 3 Republicans, it would be 21 Democrats, 3 competitive(leaning Republican) and 3 Republican.

Also what about New Jersey? Chris Christe won in 2009, 48.5% to 44.9%. The map drawn was basically a Republican gerrymander, that was 6 to 6 for each party. A Democratic gerrymander would be 10 Democrats and 2 Republicans. Even a proportionally partisan map would be better, with 7 Democrats, 2 competitive (leaning Republican) and 3 Republican.

Minnesota would be a minor improvement with a fairer map. But a Republican attempt had already been vetoed by the Democratic governor and the courts ordered a least change map.

Florida and Ohio would be the big changes, map wise changing from Republican gerrymander to fairer maps. Florida would eventually be struck down in 2015.


In terms of governing, some of the Republican tactics will be weakened since Democrats need to peel off fewer Republicans.


2012 Relevant states

Ohio. 12 Republicans, 4 Democrats. In a good year for Democrats like 2012 with Obama winning the state, I could see an 8-8 split. 4 seats is a fairly decent haul to add.

Oregon. 4 Democrats, 1 Republican which has lasted consistently, even through 2014.

Florida. 17 Republican, 10 Democrats. Post-2016 was 16 Republicans, 11 Democrats. 2018 was 14 Republicans, 13 Democrats. Of course, Democrats didn't win statewide in either year, while they did in 2012. An extra seat or two could be expected, but I wouldn't rule out more potentially.

New Jersey. 6-6 which would last till 2016, where Democrats made one pickup, and then in 2018 when they got all but one.

Minnesota. 5 Democrats 3 Republicans. Not sure of any change, since Republicans still have the state senate.

New York. 21 Democrats, 6 Republicans. So essentially where the gerrymander might put it. But it would be more durable vs 2014, with those lost seats not being reclaimed til 2018. But maybe Democrats manage a breakthrough in one of those Republican competitive districts.

Colorado. 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats. So instead it would be 5 Democrats, 2 Republicans.

 

[Pericles]

The 538 tool is useful but it was made in 2018, 7 years after the redistricting occurred and during that time political circumstances have changed and trends have changed the leans of districts.

Here's a summary of the post-2010 Oregon redistricting, IOTL a bipartisan deal was reached due to the split State House, since Democrats have the votes to get their own redistricting plan through they might go a bit stronger, but IOTL Democrat Kate Brown would have decided the new lines if the legislature couldn't, so Democrats might not have that much room for improvement given if there was they could have just sent it to Brown. In New York, it's possible the IDC isn't formed given Jeff Klein, who later formed the IDC, was fired as the Senate Democrat political strategist after the 2010 midterms due to the Democrats losing the state Senate.

This is one of the maps Democrats proposed for Colorado;

I'm not sure what the effects of that would be, and it's possible Democrats draw a more favorable map if they have a trifecta. Here is more info on the post-2010 redistricting in Colorado.

I doubt there is any change in Minnesota as Republicans still control the state Senate. Maine actually ended up with a compromise map so I don't think it would be effected, especially since it isn't a Democratic trifecta.

In Florida, 2/3rds of both houses-so 80/120 of the state House and 27/40 of the state Senate-is required for a veto override. Republicans would have 28 seats in the state Senate, IOTL they had 81 seats in the state House but ITTL they win 2 less seats in the 2010 elections so end up with the state House as 79 R-41 D (and IOTL the GOP gerrymander passed 80-37 in the state House, so Governor Sink's veto would probably not be overriden). So likely the courts would draw a fairer map in Florida, unless the legislature and Sink can agree on a compromise map.

In Ohio, Strickland would veto a Republican gerrymander and Republicans wouldn't have the votes to override his veto. It was speculated Jim Jordan's district would be eliminated IOTL so perhaps Strickland and the Republicans can agree on that. I'm not sure whether a gerrymander of the state legislature could be avoided.

Legislative
The Ohio Apportionment Board is responsible for legislative redistricting. It is composed of the following five members:

• Governor
• State Auditor
• Secretary of State
• Two members selected by the legislative leaders of the two major parties

Link

Looking at the 2010 results, while the gubernatorial race is won by Democrats Republicans still win the State Auditor and Secretary of State race (btw, Richard Cordray beats Mike DeWine for Attorney General, but of course he wouldn't have a role in state legislative redistricting). So the commission could just vote on party lines and gerrymander the state legislature. However, a gerrymander would at least be avoided for the US House districts.

This is what I've been able to figure out so far. However, I'm not entirely sure what the alternate maps would look like.

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

With a majority that small, it might be impossible for Boehner to adhere to the Hastert Rule, so it's possible you don't get the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, which makes Obama more popular going into the 2012 elections, and potentially having long enough coattails to retake the House for the Democrats. Obama's second-term legislative agenda would likely focus on gun control (assuming the Sandy Hook shootings don't somehow get butterflied) and immigration reform, although since Democrats would be unlikely to recapture majorities of the size they had in 2009, anything that actually passed congress would be pretty modest.