WI: 2010 election with May as Tory leader

I thought I had given the campaign and results of this year's election.

How would the Tories have fared with her as leader in 2010? What would the party look like with her as leader instead of Cameron? Would Labour hold on to more seats even though Gordon Brown admittedly wasn't a spectacular campaigner either? Or would she manage to not screw things up monumentally like OTL and do better than Cameron?

Or would it be the Lib Dems who do better? Talking about the Lib Dems, given May's absence from the debates this year (different situation though, with her in government with sky high approvals) perhaps there wouldn't even be any debates ITTL with her as leader, meaning that Cleggmania doesn't even have the time to get off the ground before fizzling out

Also, if she had stood in the 2005 leadership election, would she actually have had a good shot at winning, and if not under which circumstances could she have become leader?

It's a thought that's been bugging me for a few days, though given that I'm an observer of UK politics from abroad with relatively limited knowledge I haven't been able to come to much of a conclusion.
 
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May and Clegg form a coalition agreement after Clegg decides Brown is a political deadweight.

Chuka Umunna, Emily Thornberry and Zac Goldsmith are defeated by LibDem candidates.

Ed Milliband is elected Leader of the Labour Party.

From 2010 to 2014 UKIP rises in support and Nigel Farage becomes a strong alternative on the right to the charisma-free May. May promises a referendum on the EU if she is reelected.

UKIP wins big in the EU 2014 Election.

UKIP...............33%
Labour............24%
Conservative...20%
Lib-Dem...........7%
Other.............16%


The Scottish Independence Referendum fails 48-52%.

In the 2015 general election, May runs a horrible campaign and UKIP benefits.

In a upset, Labour does far worse than expected and the Tories seats.

Conservative...309....26.8%
Labour............222.....27.2%
SNP...................57.......5.0%
UKIP.................22....23.9%
Lib-Dem............18....10.1%
Green..................1......5.8%
Other................21......1.2%


Amber Rudd, Stephen Crabb, and Tristram Hunt are among the losers in the race.

May forms a minority government with informal support from the DUP and UKIP.

Ed Miliband narrowly survives a leadership challenge.

In 2016, Brexit passes 53-47% and May resigns.

Boris Johnson is elected Conservative leader over George Osborne 57-43% in a party membership vote.

After Johnson's victory, Nigel Farage resigns as UKIP leader. Stephen Wolfe is elected as leader and moves quickly to form an electoral pact with Johnson.

Boris Johnson calls an early election in 2018 and campaigns very hard. The debates are highly entertaining.

In the election results, the Conservaitves win their first majority since 1992.

Conservative...333....42.1%
Labour............226.....36.2%
SNP...................41......3.3%
Lib-Dem............16.......8.4%

UKIP.................12.......7.1%
Green..................1.......1.9%
Other................21.......1.0%
 
Last edited:

Thomas1195

Banned
View attachment 328263

May and Clegg form a coalition agreement after Clegg decides Brown is a political deadweight.

Chuka Umunna, Emily Thornberry and Zac Goldsmith are defeated by LibDem candidates.

Ed Milliband is elected Leader of the Labour Party.

From 2010 to 2014 UKIP rises in support and Nigel Farage becomes a strong alternative on the right to the charisma-free May. May promises a referendum on the EU if she is reelected.

UKIP wins big in the EU 2014 Election.

UKIP...............33%
Labour............24%
Conservative...20%
Lib-Dem...........7%
Other.............16%


The Scottish Independence Referendum fails 48-52%.

In the 2015 general election, May runs a horrible campaign and UKIP benefits.

In a upset, Labour does far worse than expected and the Tories seats.

Conservative...309....26.8%
Labour............222.....27.2%
SNP...................57.......5.0%
UKIP.................22....23.9%
Lib-Dem............18....10.1%
Green..................1......5.8%
Other................21......1.2%


Amber Rudd, Stephen Crabb, and Tristram Hunt are among the losers in the race.

May forms a minority government with informal support from the DUP and UKIP.

Ed Miliband narrowly survives a leadership challenge.

In 2016, Brexit passes 53-47% and May resigns.

Boris Johnson is elected Conservative leader over George Osborne 57-43% in a party membership vote.

After Johnson's victory, Nigel Farage resigns as UKIP leader. Stephen Wolfe is elected as leader and moves quickly to form an electoral pact with Johnson.

Boris Johnson calls an early election in 2018 and campaigns very hard. The debates are highly entertaining.

In the election results, the Conservaitves win their first majority since 1992.

Conservative...333....42.1%
Labour............226.....36.2%
SNP...................41......3.3%
Lib-Dem............16.......8.4%

UKIP.................12.......7.1%
Green..................1.......1.9%
Other................21.......1.0%
Lib-Lab could play the Republican Obstructionist game against May cabinet.

Another case: If Libdem won over 100 seats, they could form a majority government with Labour.
 
I don't think May would have won a 2005 leadership contest. It was very difficult for Cameron to win when he was not a eurosceptic, and as we have seen May is a bad campaigner. Frankly, it might be difficult for her to win a 2016 leadership contest, if that had gone the distance.

But if she had somehow won, I can't see her performing too well. She is not well suited to being an opposition leader, given that her whole appeal as PM rested on being a stern but competent (and more than a little awkward) and that is a lot harder to sell if people find it harder to picture you as PM. With the two main party leaders being pretty similar in character, I can see the Lib Dems doing a lot better, given that Clegg would provide such a contrast, and he would genuinely be in a position to hold the balance of power in 2010, perhaps even with Labour being the largest party. Alternatively, with a weaker opposition leader, Brown may opt to call an election in 2007, which I can't see May having the ability to captialize on that much, and Labour would be returned with a smaller majority.
 
May quietly looked into running in OTL in 2005, mainly to put a marker down and raise the issue of women in the party - I don't think she seriously expected to have any chance of winning - and she didn't have enough support to even stand. She's not becoming leader in 2005. I guess there's a possibility that an ATL outgoing leader favours her in the same way that Howard gave a boost to the Cameroons, but that's difficult to envisage because she doesn't really 'do' factions. You'd also need an 'oh fuck no' factor going on in respect of the other candidates as in the 2016 election, which is possible but not easy to do.
 

Ak-84

Banned
May was never supposed to be PM. She only became PM because post-Brexit, every senior Tory suddenly found they had urgent other business to attend to, so could not make a leadership challenge sorry. In 2005, there was no extraordinary situation that would propel her. She is like Roy Jenkins or Lord Whitelaw, never supposed to be party leader, a loyal and capable servant.
 
View attachment 328263

May and Clegg form a coalition agreement after Clegg decides Brown is a political deadweight.

In those circumstances, I don't think that would happen. The Lib Dems have a much greater share of the vote than Labour, and the potential of going into coalition with them. So they might be able to make quite a lot of demands off Labour in a coalition with them, such as the implementation of a Northern-Ireland-esque proportial representation system (with multi-member constituencies), and Nick Clegg becoming the Prime Minister.

In other words, the Lib Dems would have more clout in a coalition with Labour than in a coalition with the Conservatives.
 
In those circumstances, I don't think that would happen. The Lib Dems have a much greater share of the vote than Labour, and the potential of going into coalition with them. So they might be able to make quite a lot of demands off Labour in a coalition with them, such as the implementation of a Northern-Ireland-esque proportial representation system (with multi-member constituencies), and Nick Clegg becoming the Prime Minister.

In other words, the Lib Dems would have more clout in a coalition with Labour than in a coalition with the Conservatives.
No way are Labour going to let Clegg be PM when they have nearly 100 seats more. They know it would probably hurt them considerably as they would effectively be seen as the junior partner, and if that were the case, they would just let the Lib Dems do a deal with the Tories. They weren't particularly hungry for power in 2010 anyway, many felt that the better option would be to give the coalition a run, and then sweep to a majority at the next election as both sides experienced a loss in support. They would make concessions on electoral reform, but that could just mean implementing AV without a referendum. Maybe they would concede a referendum on PR, but that would probably be lost as OTL.
 
May was never supposed to be PM. She only became PM because post-Brexit, every senior Tory suddenly found they had urgent other business to attend to, so could not make a leadership challenge sorry. In 2005, there was no extraordinary situation that would propel her. She is like Roy Jenkins or Lord Whitelaw, never supposed to be party leader, a loyal and capable servant.

Not so - she was always the Stop Boris candidate for leader. If the EU ref had ended 50.01/49.99 in favour of Remain, then Cameron would have governed until 2019, handing over to Boris, May or (though very unlikely) George Osborne. Osborne wasn't popular enough with the public. May would be more popular with the party, but Boris more popular with the membership, so he'd probably edge it. Especially if he still backed Leave ittl.
 
View attachment 328263

May and Clegg form a coalition agreement after Clegg decides Brown is a political deadweight.

Were this to have actually happened IOTL, then with their Vote Share Snapping at the Heels of the Conservative Share, and Labour trailing far behind both of them, a Conservative/Lib-Dem Coalition is the only really viable option IMHO.

That said, the position of the Liberal Democrats would be substantially stronger than it was IOTL since this coalition government would see them holding some 30% of the Seats between them. So I can see far more of the Lib-Dem policies making their way into the Government Policies than we got. And perhaps even one of the Big Four (minus PM).

It should also be noted that one of the Lib-Dem Policies for the 2010 General Election was a Referendum of EU Membership, so it hadd a greater chance of happening during the 2010-2015 Period IMHO, whether or it would actually go ahead...

Still, with more apparent Lib-Dem successes in the coalition government, their larger overall standing in the 2010-2015 Parliament, and Nick Clegg I suspect having a better TV (amongst other mediums) Presence, dropping down to 18 I doubt could occur. 40 (+/- 10) being what I feel is a more realistic drop in seats for them.
 
I thought I had given the campaign and results of this year's election.

How would the Tories have fared with her as leader in 2010? What would the party look like with her as leader instead of Cameron? Would Labour hold on to more seats even though Gordon Brown admittedly wasn't a spectacular campaigner either? Or would she manage to not screw things up monumentally like OTL and do better than Cameron?

Or would it be the Lib Dems who do better? Talking about the Lib Dems, given May's absence from the debates this year (different situation though, with her in government with sky high approvals) perhaps there wouldn't even be any debates ITTL with her as leader, meaning that Cleggmania doesn't even have the time to get off the ground before fizzling out

Also, if she had stood in the 2005 leadership election, would she actually have had a good shot at winning, and if not under which circumstances could she have become leader?

It's a thought that's been bugging me for a few days, though given that I'm an observer of UK politics from abroad with relatively limited knowledge I haven't been able to come to much of a conclusion.
to be honest its debateable whether the debates actually helped the Lib Dems at all, leading as it did to over optimistic spreading of resources into too many seats, ironically they may have won another 10-20 without that tactical mistake in the ground campaign. This would just about have made a non conservative coalition government possible
 
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