So after watching the developments of both the Syrian civil war and the Arab spring, I can't help but think back to the 2009 protests in Iran over the much disputed election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. After the protests against the elections turned violent, the opposition started to call for the removal of the regime itself. Sadly the "Islamic" republic was able to violently crack down on the protesters and continue their oppressive government.
So my question is this: could the 2009 protests turn into an Arab spring style scenario, with more and more mas protests, enough that the government isn't able to easily suppress? Or could this turn into something similar to Syria, with military units siding with the opposition and causing a full blown civil war?
What would be the effects of either scenario? Could the opposition bring down the regime? What would the rest of the world do in such a situation? While no nation, other than Russia, has officially got involved in the Syrian civil war, would countries be able to resist the chance to bring down one of the biggest sponsors of terrorism and instability in the world? What the long-term forecast for Iran and the rest of the middle east? Would either scenario trigger an earlier Arab spring? Any and all thoughts are much appreciated.