WI 2008 Election: Cain v. Obama?

[Chapman]

Inspired by the thread I made the other day about a possible Herman Cain Presidency, I wonder: What if the 2008 Election had been between Barack Obama, on the Democratic ticket, and Herman Cain, on the Republican ticket? Would Cain be able to win, or would George W. Bush's eight years in office, and his controversial legacy, have weighed him down as much as it did John McCain? And if Herman Cain did become President, what would America look like after his Presidency?

 

[Kodoku]

2008 was a poisoned chalice for the Republicans, regardless of the nominee. But Herman Cain was widely reported to make a lot of gaffes, & things wouldn't go to well for him in the election.

In my opinion, maybe Obama wins with a larger margin?

 

[Chapman]

2008 was a poisoned chalice for the Republicans, regardless of the nominee. But Herman Cain was widely reported to make a lot of gaffes, & things wouldn't go to well for him in the election.

In my opinion, maybe Obama wins with a larger margin?

While Sarah Palin, among others, did/do (to a certain extent) entertain "birther" conspiracy theories about Barack Obama, John McCain is well known for his refusal to do so during the campaign. Would someone like Herman Cain, who is well known for his extreme views on Islam, have embraced said conspiracies? And if so, could he potentially leverage those to his benefit, maybe even enough to win (albeit by a slim margin)?

 

[Kodoku]

While Sarah Palin, among others, did/do (to a certain extent) entertain "birther" conspiracy theories about Barack Obama, John McCain is well known for his refusal to do so during the campaign. Would someone like Herman Cain, who is well known for his extreme views on Islam, have embraced said conspiracies? And if so, could he potentially leverage those to his benefit, maybe even enough to win (albeit by a slim margin)?

Oh yes, I wouldn't doubt he would embrace Islamophobic conspiracy theories. And yes, you would still have die hard republicans still vote for him. But in all honesty, most americans would be disgusted by it or at least, wouldn't pay attention to it.

2008 was the year where people were really concerned about the economy, & of course wanted, hope & change. And were tired of the misdirection the republicans were going in for the past 8 years.

 

[Politibrit]

While Sarah Palin, among others, did/do (to a certain extent) entertain "birther" conspiracy theories about Barack Obama, John McCain is well known for his refusal to do so during the campaign. Would someone like Herman Cain, who is well known for his extreme views on Islam, have embraced said conspiracies? And if so, could he potentially leverage those to his benefit, maybe even enough to win (albeit by a slim margin)?

I'm not sure how much that would help him, if at all. Sure, it might have sort of worked out for Trump, but that doesn't mean it would work for a different candidate eight years beforehand. Barack Obama at the height of his popularity after a Republican Presidency that ended pretty badly is a very different beast from Hilary Clinton in 2016.

 

[The Red]

Would Cain have even been well enough to run?

 

[SsgtC]

Back in 08, I read a lot of news reports of people who came out to vote simply to be able to say that they had voted for the first African-American President. Including a number of voters who identified as Republicans. If both candidates are African-American, that essentially eliminates defections from the Republican Party and it gives people who voted solely to say they voted for the first minority President a choice. Now, whether that's enough to flip the election to Cain or simply enough to narrow the gap over McCain, I have no idea. My gut says no. But it does add another dimension into how the election turns out.

 

[Politibrit]

Back in 08, I read a lot of news reports of people who came out to vote simply to be able to say that they had voted for the first African-American President. Including a number of voters who identified as Republicans. If both candidates are African-American, that essentially eliminates defections from the Republican Party and it gives people who voted solely to say they voted for the first minority President a choice. Now, whether that's enough to flip the election to Cain or simply enough to narrow the gap over McCain, I have no idea. My gut says no. But it does add another dimension into how the election turns out.

I really don't think its as simple as that. Its seems odd that the kind of people who are excited by the prospect of a first black President (Obama isn't African American, technically) would look at two candidates, one of whom is running on a platform of liberalism and hope, and the other who is a hardline conservative islamophobe, and conclude that either one works just fine for them. Voters with those values are still going to rally around Obama, maybe even more so than previously, given the alternative is much worse than OTL. Maybe Cain holds onto more of those African Americans who voted for Bush, but that's not a terribly large pool to begin with.

 

[SsgtC]

I really don't think its as simple as that. Its seems odd that the kind of people who are excited by the prospect of a first black President (Obama isn't African American, technically) would look at two candidates, one of whom is running on a platform of liberalism and hope, and the other who is a hardline conservative islamophobe, and conclude that either one works just fine for them. Voters with those values are still going to rally around Obama, maybe even more so than previously, given the alternative is much worse than OTL. Maybe Cain holds onto more of those African Americans who voted for Bush, but that's not a terribly large pool to begin with.

That's not what I was implying. I probably wasn't clear enough. I read several articles where people who had never voted before voted in 2008 to say that they voted for the first black President. These same articles also mentioned voters who had been life long Republicans voting for Obama for the same reason (likely grossly simplified, but that's what the articles claimed). If people who do not normally vote, but did in 2008 for the sole reason of saying they voted for a minority President, are given the choice between two minority canidates that would split the vote between Obama and Cain, instead of all going to Obama as IOTL. Likewise for those Republicans who voted for Obama because they wanted to tell their children/grandchildren they voted for the first minority President, they could do so while still voting Republican. Again, I doubt the numbers are sufficient to flip the election to Cain, but it would be interesting to see what changes it has on the hour close the race is.

 

[CaliGuy]

Inspired by the thread I made the other day about a possible Herman Cain Presidency, I wonder: What if the 2008 Election had been between Barack Obama, on the Democratic ticket, and Herman Cain, on the Republican ticket? Would Cain be able to win, or would George W. Bush's eight years in office, and his controversial legacy, have weighed him down as much as it did John McCain? And if Herman Cain did become President, what would America look like after his Presidency?

In short: Cain loses in a massive landslide--indeed, even greater than the landslide by which McCain lost.

 

[Politibrit]

That's not what I was implying. I probably wasn't clear enough. I read several articles where people who had never voted before voted in 2008 to say that they voted for the first black President. These same articles also mentioned voters who had been life long Republicans voting for Obama for the same reason (likely grossly simplified, but that's what the articles claimed). If people who do not normally vote, but did in 2008 for the sole reason of saying they voted for a minority President, are given the choice between two minority canidates that would split the vote between Obama and Cain, instead of all going to Obama as IOTL. Likewise for those Republicans who voted for Obama because they wanted to tell their children/grandchildren they voted for the first minority President, they could do so while still voting Republican. Again, I doubt the numbers are sufficient to flip the election to Cain, but it would be interesting to see what changes it has on the hour close the race is.

People saying things in articles is really just anecdotal evidence though. I'm sure those people exist, but not in any significant numbers. No matter who they normally vote for or even if they don't usually vote at all, the people who vote for a candidate because they are a minority are likely to be overwhelmingly Democrat leaning. I'd be willing to bet even many of those Republicans who would do so would be turned off by the xenophobic rhetoric of the Cain campaign. If those people are worth anything at all, it is below 1% of the vote.

 

[creighton]

That's not what I was implying. I probably wasn't clear enough. I read several articles where people who had never voted before voted in 2008 to say that they voted for the first black President. These same articles also mentioned voters who had been life long Republicans voting for Obama for the same reason (likely grossly simplified, but that's what the articles claimed). If people who do not normally vote, but did in 2008 for the sole reason of saying they voted for a minority President, are given the choice between two minority canidates that would split the vote between Obama and Cain, instead of all going to Obama as IOTL. Likewise for those Republicans who voted for Obama because they wanted to tell their children/grandchildren they voted for the first minority President, they could do so while still voting Republican. Again, I doubt the numbers are sufficient to flip the election to Cain, but it would be interesting to see what changes it has on the hour close the race is.

More GOP defections would be because of the economy that accelerated off the cliff in October, remember, the race tightened after Palin was picked, and tied nationally for a few weeks until the bottom fell out of the economy and Palin was exposed for being, well, Palin. With the ebbs and flows before that, the GOP defections shouldn't plausibly be because of Obama's race.

But these discussions aren't in a vacuum, feel free to link to an article saying otherwise.

 

[SsgtC]

More GOP defections would be because of the economy that accelerated off the cliff in October, remember, the race tightened after Palin was picked, and tied nationally for a few weeks until the bottom fell out of the economy and Palin was exposed for being, well, Palin. With the ebbs and flows before that, the GOP defections shouldn't plausibly be because of Obama's race.

But these discussions aren't in a vacuum, feel free to link to an article saying otherwise.

I've had a bit too much Captain tonight to dig the articles out, but even having read them, I agree that saying people in the GOP defected because of Obama's race is grossly simplified. IMO, that was simply one of the reasons SOME people defected, not the sole reason.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Cain had nothing McCain had. McCain had legitimacy, experience, was a war hero, and has cross-party appeal. And he still received a severe minority because of how strong his opponent was and how deeply failing the outgoing administration had been. Obama captured the mood of the nation. Cain would lose by an even deeper landslide.

 

[Chapman]

Would Cain have even been well enough to run?

I wasn't sure what you meant by this at first, but I just remembered his cancer diagnosis in 2006. I didn't even consider that when I made the OP, but I guess for our purposes let's just assume it never happened.