WI 2007 general election?

What if Gordon Brown had never "bottled it", and held a general election sometime in late 2007/early 2008? Would the Conservatives have gained as significant a majority as they look likely to do in 2010, would they even have won the election at all? How would Gordon Brown's premiership be different by midsummer 2008, assuming all of the other problems it has encountered happened OTL? Alternatively, how do you think a new Tory government under David Cameron would have handled issues like Northern Rock, the dramatic rise in oil prices, and the strikes of this spring/summer?

Any thoughts?
 
What if Gordon Brown had never "bottled it", and held a general election sometime in late 2007/early 2008? Would the Conservatives have gained as significant a majority as they look likely to do in 2010, would they even have won the election at all? How would Gordon Brown's premiership be different by midsummer 2008, assuming all of the other problems it has encountered happened OTL? Alternatively, how do you think a new Tory government under David Cameron would have handled issues like Northern Rock, the dramatic rise in oil prices, and the strikes of this spring/summer?

Any thoughts?
I think Labour would have remained the largest party, with either a very small, ie.single figure majority or a minority. I could forsee a coalition with the Lib Dems in such a scenario. Ming as Foreign Secretary anyone? Also issues such as Northern Rock would have happened much as they did in ttl as the Liberals supported the nationalisation.
 

hammo1j

Donor
Me thinks the Grodon would have won with a working majority. He was 90% certain to win, but I don't think that was enough for someone as risk averse as he was.

Forward to today, Brown would still have his woes, but 4 years to right them plus the respect of the nation for putting his suitability for to the test. Expect a 10% Tory lead instead of the current 20%. Milibrot, nor anyone else, would be playing up about his leadership.

Cameron would go mid term as the Tories went back to their roots and elected a 'New Maggie' with less centrist tendencies.
 
On the other hand, wouldn't Cameron still gain the same bounce he did in reality, after his speeches at the Tory conference, and the proposed cutting of income tax?
 
My guess is that had the election been scheduled for early October 2007 Brown would win with a smaller overall majority. He would likely have been barely ahead of the the tories on popular vote.

Would people be saying he had made an error in calling a voluntary early election which weakened his position?
 
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