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On 26 February, 2006, Al Qaeda attacked the Abqaiq Complex in Saudi Arabia. It is one of the largest and most vital energy centers in the world, with up to 7 million barrels of petroleum passing through pipelines, desulfurization towers, and other processing facilities prior to being dispatched to ports for shipment (as of 2006, according to this article). While the terrorists were stopped by security and failed to make it to vital parts of the facility, a successful attack could have been catastrophic. If the desulfurization towers had been damaged, hydrogen sulfide would have leaked out and reacted with the air to form sulfur dioxide acid. The sulfur dioxide would have asphyxiated anyone in the vicinity and settled on pipes and other infrastructure, causing widespread corrosion. Even if only moderately successful, it's possible that up to 6 million barrels of petroleum would be removed from world markets for two months, and seven months after the attack with a shortfall of 4.2 million barrels would persist (book here).

With world petroleum consumption at 85.5 million barrels per day in 2006 (source here) and world energy markets already tight at that point in time, the world would have a shortfall of 7.0% of demand at the start of the crisis decreasing to a shortfall of 4.9% seven months out. The 1973 Energy Crisis that caused such havoc only involved a supply decrease of around 3.0% of demand, and of course it was a political crisis that could be resolved at any point in time. Abqaiq would be a technical and infrastructure crisis that would take months and possibly years to resolve.

So, what would be the impact of such a massive and (at least in the short term) irreversible loss of so much petroleum from world markets? Would world strategic petroleum reserves be sufficient to prevent a shortage, or would the duration and semi-permanence of the crisis overwhelm them? Might there be a repeat of the 1970s, with countries aggressively pursing nuclear and renewable energy programs and funding the development of alternative energy vehicles?
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