WI: 2003 invasion of Iran instead of Iraq

What if in 2003 we had invaded Iran instead of Iraq? You can take what ever PoD you want after 9-11 and before an invasion. Would we be facing similar problems with Iraq ITTL that we are facing with Iran in OTL, or would we be facing a completely different set of problems? Would we possibly see a riot/protest(one persons riot is another mans protest and vice versa) in Iraq similar to what we are seeing in Egypt right now?
 
I guess it could be possible, if after 9/11 it looks like Iran has a serious chance of developing a Nuclear Weapon. Washington sends an Ultimatum to Tehran, saying that if they don't stop, they'll invade. Tehran refuses, thinking it's just a bluff, but then in 2003, around the same time as the OTL invasion of Iraq, Iran is invaded...

As for how the actualy invasion would go down...I'm not sure, but Iran is something like three-times the size of Iraq, and with much more difficult terrain to navigate. Plus, what would Israel do in all this? Would they joing in, or sit it out?

Either way, I think things would be much worse then OTL Iraq.
 
1. The Coalition would probably be a lot smaller.
Many countries would fear Irani retaliation (including WMD attacks) and invading Iran would have been alot more difficult to explain to the people, than going for Iraq. Back in 2003 there was a considerable moderate movement in Iran and Europeans actually hoped that the radicals would lose power. With the invasion of Iraq, this possibility vanished.

2. The invasion would be alot touger to pull through.
Logistics through Afghanistan would be a nightmare, no heavy forces could operate from there. The invasion front from Kuwait would be limited, so the Iranis would stand a chance to fortify and cause considerable damage to the US.

3. The occupation would be a nightmare.
Bigger cities, more population, an organized paramilitary force, all factors which would life very hard for the occupation forces. Plus the Iranis are less diversified in terms of religion and ethnic, meaning they would be more interesting in killing occupation forces than each other (like in Iraq).
 
Would we possibly see a riot/protest(one persons riot is another mans protest and vice versa) in Iraq similar to what we are seeing in Egypt right now?

Iraq would never be 'an Egypt.' Saddam was the guy who put down individual rebels by gassing entire villages. The first stirings of pro-democratic change would die in a most gruesome death.

For that matter, if we go into Iran in '03 we likely have Iraq as a principal ally.
 
Just maybe there would be a bigger coalition?

After all, Iran is not arabic and the arabic world did unite behind Iraq in 1980.

One of thhe causes of the Iraq invasion of Kuwait (if not the primary one) was that Kuwait would like to see Iraq paying back the +/- $ 50 billion that they 'gave' them, Saddam thought it was a gift for fightinh the commom enemy, Kuwait thought it was a loan; hence =>

So it could come to pass that a US led invasion would gather the Arabic nations behind the US, which would have put a different spin on things.

Where Israel would fit I have no clue.

reg,
 
I see the invasion of Iran in place of Iraq as being quite likely the most stupid thing the US could have done (or if some people have their way, might do). We'd probably lose most if not all of our European allies, and Russia might start getting antsy (seeing as Iran is actually on their border after all). Not to mention that we'd be fighting a unified country who had no intentions of falling to us. Where Iraq qas factionalized between the Shiite East, the Suuni West, and the Kurdish North, we would be facing the unity of the Persian people in the face of an imperialistic invasion (i'm pretty sure that's how it'd end up regardless of how we tried to spin it).

Now, how Israel and the rest of the Muslim world will react is...questionable. I think Israel only has a problem with Radicals in Iran, and not Iran itself. I'm sure Iraq would join us, but only for the prospect of territorial gain. Still not sure about the rest of the region...

Al Queda would have a field day. They'd be able to start spouting "No muslim is safe, no matter what creed"
 
A nightmare. Iran is three times the size of Iraq, much more sophisticated, mostly mountainous in its terrain, and its people are more radicalized (!).
 
it'd be ugly the Iranian Military (unlike the Iraq Army) isn't held together with gun and tape, and is used to doing things other than putting down protesters/rebels, the Basij form groups like we see in Iraq (after a MUCH longer ground war) the Revolutionary Guards are far more hard core and could run a Vietcong leave war in Iran :(
 
Physically, Iran would be much more difficult to invade. It's larger and much more mountainous (more like Afghanistan than Iraq). Worse, there's no real convenient staging area. Afghanistan and the former Soviet CARs are all landlocked, so there's no way to put heavy forces in from there. I can't see Pakistan agreeing to it. Turkey might, but I seriously doubt it. And going from the Arabian Peninsula would mean going through hostile Iraq or over the beach. Iraq would probably mean on a narrow front and leaving a very vulnerable flank. But an amphib assault of the sort that would have been needed hasn't been carried out in more than 50 years. (I'm not even sure there are enough suitable beaches to do it.)
 

Thanos6

Banned
"RUMSFELD! We were supposed to go after Saddam! What the hell were you thinking, sending us into Iran instead?!"

"Well, uh, Mr. President...I hit the wrong button on my keyboard."
 
Air superiority makes everything useless.

I think that's overly simplistic. IIRC Iran uses more modern Anti-Air equipment than Iraq did for one thing.

"RUMSFELD! We were supposed to go after Saddam! What the hell were you thinking, sending us into Iran instead?!"

"Well, uh, Mr. President...I hit the wrong button on my keyboard."

Lol. More like "Cheney got hold of the message and changed one letter".

I'm currently (slowly) writing a TL where there is a limited war between Britain and Iran starting in '06 (some people might think the PoD is a little daft though, but it is something that nearly happened).
 
1. The Coalition would probably be a lot smaller.

IIRC, the Coalition in Iraq consisted of the USA, the UK, the Federated States of Micronesia and some guy called Zeke. And his dog of course. It really couldn't get much smaller than that.
An invasion of Iran would possibly lead to Blair getting the Black Spot. :cool:
 
Originally posted by Cymraeg
IIRC, the Coalition in Iraq consisted of the USA, the UK, the Federated States of Micronesia and some guy called Zeke. And his dog of course. It really couldn't get much smaller than that.
You forgot Poland. ;)
Yep, we sent our special forces (GROM) to Iraq. They did well, but I still think we shouldn't have bothered.
 
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A hypothetical invasion of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2003 would probably be just the United States of America, with some limited Iraqi and British support.

Previous users are correct in stating that a war with Iran would be a much tougher political sell than Iraq, as Iran is a much more powerful and developed country in terms of military forces and infrastructure and much larger in terms of population and area. Not to mention that in 2003, Iran, although considered a black sheep in the international community, wasn't the big bad devil that most countries make it out to be in 2011. A war with Iran would probably be Afghanistan x10.

IIRC, the Coalition in Iraq consisted of the USA, the UK, the Federated States of Micronesia and some guy called Zeke. And his dog of course.

Basically four countries and a handful of rebel groups were in the coalition.

* United States of America
* United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
* Commonwealth of Australia
* Republic of Poland

No mention of a bloke named Zeke and his dog, though. :p

After the invasion, more countries sent military forces into Iraq, although they widthdrew fairly quickly afterwards, due to terrorist attacks (Spain) or domestic political pressure (United Kingdom).
 
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