Orrin Hatch seems best poised to win the GOP nomination,
Orrin Hatch was a joke candidate who went absolutely nowhere and was the first to pull out of the race IOTL, before Iowa, after coming, ye gods, last in the Alaska straw poll. Saying he is best poised to win the nomination is a rather odd statement. Alan Keyes had a better chance of being the nominee than Orrin Hatch did.
No, it would be Ashcroft IMO. IOTL he didn't run for obvious reasons, (He looked at it seriously, but in the face of Bush, wisely decided against it) but remove even just Bush and he would run. Even against McCain, he would likely win the nomination; the GOP establishment would probably coalesce around him. If you look at commentary of the time, then he was extremely highly rated (electorally-speaking) and would have served the same uniting function of the party's wings that Bush did IOTL.
All the other candidates mentioned in the thread are stodgemeisters - too old, too lacking in oomph (yes, even in relation to John Ashcroft) and unlikely to gain any traction. Keating could be a wildcard purely because of his Catholicism, and slightly-out-of-the-box-style western appeal (but that would probably simply serve to damage McCain if only Bush is removed, and I'm not entirely convinced he would run anyway) but other than that, they're not going anywhere. Forbes could be an interesting factor, but after '96 he's got too much of the stigma of a wrecker about him and isn't an obvious champion of the social conservative wing of the party in his 2000 incarnation.
Best guess with no McCain or Bush is Ashcroft wins Iowa, Forbes wins New Hampshire, Ashcroft recovers and wins South Carolina and from there the nomination. If he runs, Keating would be banking, as would Forbes, on Super Tuesday delivering a bounce which probably wouldn't arrive, (Maybe having ran close in the previous states as the third candidate and possibly winning Delaware to keep his campaign alive, just) or if it did it would not be enough to carry him though.
So at the end of the day, Ashcroft versus Gore. But no slick Bush campaign, and, DUI, booze etc excepted, a generally less robust candidate in the shape of Ashcroft probably means Gore can finish safely.
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