What if Thatcher had fought a Second Ballot against Heseltine and lost, as her Cabinet predicted she would? How would the Conservatives, now led by Heseltine, do at the 1992 General Election?
How do you think 1997 goes? Would the booming economy let them increase their majority, or would the ERM issue hurt them as it did the TOries (personally, I fall into the first camp)?Honestly? I think Labour would win the next election. Tarzan just doesn’t seem to have the working class roots that benefited Major, plus eurosceptics and Thatcherites are likely to stay home.
In any case, with Heseltine losing in 1992, you’re likely to see a Thatcherite replace him as Tory leader. Think Norman Lamont, Portillo (though he may be too young at this point), or maybe Howard.
How do you think 1997 goes? Would the booming economy let them increase their majority, or would the ERM issue hurt them as it did the TOries (personally, I fall into the first camp)?
As noted Heseltine lacks the working-class appeal of John Major. Loathed by his own party for his Europhillia and Brutus-like betrayal of Thatcher, his overbearing manner won't go down well with the electorate. In fact I reckon he and Kinnock side by side would appear more alike than either would have liked - Kinnock was pretty deflated, pompous, rather uninspiring by this point (had been leader for nine years, his boyish appeal of 1983 had long worn off). The sense that they were both 'past their time' allows Paddy Ashdown to perform better against Major's folksy charm. (Major wasn't Captain Charisma, he was no Blair, but his awkwardness and soft-spoken nature contrasted well against Thatcher's domineering).