WI 1970 Black Power Revolution in Trinidad and Tobago succeeds

Would the mutineers succeed?


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That's just what embargoed cuba needs the most. T&T could become an early Venezuela. I mean only in the special relation with Cuba.

I think that would be a very mixed blessing for a black power T&T government. On one hand, Cuban support can bring troops, weapons, and maybe even some Soviet support, but it would also bring even more direct attention from the US.

I think if Cuba and, worse, the USSR got too involved in T&T, the United States would do whatever it could to coup it.

If the black power movement goes more racial-nationalist than directly socialist (which I think is unlikely), you could see large overseas communities of ethnically Indian Trinidadians and Tobagonians in Guyana, the UK, and US, but since that’s very unlikely IMO, I’d expect white and mixed race elites (as in the richest of the rich) to be the ones to leave instead.

If things go in the direction if close a Cuban relationship than maybe something more happens and you see more middle class peoples leave, which could lead to a real chance of regime radicalization which could see big changes from there.
 
I think that would be a very mixed blessing for a black power T&T government. On one hand, Cuban support can bring troops, weapons, and maybe even some Soviet support, but it would also bring even more direct attention from the US.

I think if Cuba and, worse, the USSR got too involved in T&T, the United States would do whatever it could to coup it.

If the black power movement goes more racial-nationalist than directly socialist (which I think is unlikely), you could see large overseas communities of ethnically Indian Trinidadians and Tobagonians in Guyana, the UK, and US, but since that’s very unlikely IMO, I’d expect white and mixed race elites (as in the richest of the rich) to be the ones to leave instead.

If things go in the direction if close a Cuban relationship than maybe something more happens and you see more middle class peoples leave, which could lead to a real chance of regime radicalization which could see big changes from there.
Here’s a bit on US involvement during the crisis, I posted it earlier but I think it makes it somewhat more clear that the US was very much involved. Also some very interesting is the fact that Venezuela was potentially trying to become involved.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rex_Lassalle
https://uca.edu/politicalscience/da...misphere-region/trinidad-tobago-1962-present/
“The arrival of Venezuelan warships of the coast of Trinidad provided a common foe to the loyalists in the army and coast guard and the rebels. Lassalle reported that the mutineers were prepared to break off negotiations in response to the threat, while the loyalists were reportedly unwilling to fight against the rebels if foreign troops landed. The United States dispatched six warships and 2000 marines with the stated goal of protecting United States citizens in the country. The United States also supplied the government with weapons to arm loyalist units.”
 
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I’d also like to point out that this was mostly an anti foreigner, anti capitalist movement, and even though they may hate capitalists, I don’t think anyone would be very receptive to Cubans coming down to help. On the other hand, Venezuelan warships arriving offshore would play into the revolutionaries hands if they had already seized Port of Spain and Chaguaramas, both of them contain the majority of military outposts on the island. They would be in a advantage to claim that the country should unite behind them against the foreigners.
 
I’d also like to point out that this was mostly an anti foreigner, anti capitalist movement, and even though they may hate capitalists, I don’t think anyone would be very receptive to Cubans coming down to help. On the other hand, Venezuelan warships arriving offshore would play into the revolutionaries hands if they had already seized Port of Spain and Chaguaramas, both of them contain the majority of military outposts on the island. They would be in a advantage to claim that the country should unite behind them against the foreigners.
Shure, but they are a small island in the Caribbean and USA isn't friendly to them so they are gonna need help but the only places they could get it in such situation is likely gonna be Cuba, and therefore the USSR. Is how things rolled in the cold war for small countries.
 
Time for the Monroe Doctrine!

Based on Grenada's experience thirteen years later and the time period Britain would do nothing, the Governor-General remaining in place, even if he got booted out, its unlikely Britain would intervene directly, however, a little MI6 skullduggery isn't out of the question*. The US is a question mark again given the time, 1970 is definitely not 1983. Serious issues (Indians forced at gunpoint to hop on a boat/aeroplane) might cause more direct US involvement but I can't see troops landing, it's just not politically acceptable. Genuinely I'd find it more likely for Nixon to contact the UN, inevitably get rebuffed and corral Carribean nations to provide the troops, but really most realistically as long as they don't go absolutely mental the new regime invites Cuban advisors in and gets at least a decade of security.

*EDIT: Actually I can't see the CIA letting the British independently plot coups in their bailiwick even if its in a Commonwealth nation. More likely the CIA do any subversive actions. OR given the period they let them but its giving permission/cooperation.

On the possibility of the new regime booting out Indians, its another substantial group of British passport owning 'foreigners' the UK will be (rightly IMO) obliged to take in and so cause increased anti-immigration tension based on the Ugandan Indian experience. A far smaller number but in the eyes of Powellites and the National Front that isn't really the point.
East Indians weren’t very much a part of the political system at the time, they were barely on the radar of the “revolutionaries”.

With the example of Cuba hanging overhead, the US would not be pleased. The US has never liked socialist-looking leaders in the Caribbean, as evidenced by Guatemala, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and especially Cuba, where the US wasn't able to succeed in regime change operations. This regime would be walking on eggshells from day one. Even worse, Trinidad has oil.

That's just what embargoed cuba needs the most. T&T could become an early Venezuela. I mean only in the special relation with Cuba.

I think that would be a very mixed blessing for a black power T&T government. On one hand, Cuban support can bring troops, weapons, and maybe even some Soviet support, but it would also bring even more direct attention from the US.

I think if Cuba and, worse, the USSR got too involved in T&T, the United States would do whatever it could to coup it.

If the black power movement goes more racial-nationalist than directly socialist (which I think is unlikely), you could see large overseas communities of ethnically Indian Trinidadians and Tobagonians in Guyana, the UK, and US, but since that’s very unlikely IMO, I’d expect white and mixed race elites (as in the richest of the rich) to be the ones to leave instead.

If things go in the direction if close a Cuban relationship than maybe something more happens and you see more middle class peoples leave, which could lead to a real chance of regime radicalization which could see big changes from there.

Shure, but they are a small island in the Caribbean and USA isn't friendly to them so they are gonna need help but the only places they could get it in such situation is likely gonna be Cuba, and therefore the USSR. Is how things rolled in the cold war for small countries.
So after several months of research, talking to many people that were involved, and way too much reading, I have basically found out that the revolution was already doomed if it had overthrown the government. This is an extremely simplified version of what actually happened. The CIA was already flying in arms, they had supplied the loyal police force with mortars and had at least one or two guys already down to monitor the situation. The British, US and the Venezuelan Navy were all poised to invade. The US had dispatched an entire Amphibious Ready Group (That includes a small aircraft carrier and five or six other warships) with over 2000 marines. The US was flying in ludicrous amounts of ammunition. If the mutineers had arrested or forced the Prime Minister to flee Port of Spain, we’re looking at a combination of Grenada and the US intervention in the DR in 65’.

But this is actually probably more interesting than a revolutionary government controlling the entire nation. An invasion would have been massively unpopular and would have set much of the population against the government. Along with the fact that the Prime Minister, Eric Williams had originally campaigned against the US military presence on the island following WW2. Now he himself had invited them back in. The US may have gotten their military bases back to have a presence on the island to continue an occupation and as payback for the intervention. An insurgency would have been being fought against both the police and the foreign troops. So the now reinstalled government has two options, to suspend elections and continue a State of Emergency indefinitely or hold elections they would surely lose. Or a third option.... go fully authoritarian and become a official one party state.

[Edit] It’s actually quite amazing that the mutiny didn’t turn into a bloodbath. The mutineers were armed with Anti Tank Carl Gustavs, General Purpose Machineguns, and FN FALs. They easily outgunned the police, who were armed only with mortars and mostly WW2 era gear and firearms. They, at several points, only refrained from firing because of indecision and several lucky NCOs barely stopping a soldier from opening fire on a gunboat with his Carl Gustav. One stray shell or bullet would have set everything off.
 
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