WI: 1948 Presidential Election Goes to the House

Just two states could have been enough to give Truman less than 270 EV. What if it actually happened?
 
I think the Dixiecrats would either deny him victory or play kingmaker. The latter results in the African-American vote shifting back to Republicans and/or to third parties, like the Progressives or the United Citizens*. The first could result in President Dewey, and future Democrats giving in to segregationists, thus resulting in the above scenarios.

* A third party in SC, of predominantly African-American origin, to originally run candidates in Majority African-American areas.
 
Dixiecrats play kingmaker. If Truman loses those states, presumably the Democratic House margin is somewhat smaller (240-245 instead of OTL's 263)- though Rayburn still wins the gavel. Truman wins after making some concessions, and then flips the bird at them after Inauguration Day.
 
Let's see, if we went straight along Party Lines regarding the vote we would get:

  • Republican: 19
  • Democrat: 25
  • Split: 4

Which means that Harry Truman and Alben Barkley would get through with ease in such a scenario. However that is unlikely since I imagine many Congressmen from the South would be unwilling to support Truman unless he were willing to remain silent on Civil Rights, something which I cannot see him willing to agree on except under extreme pressure. In this case then it is possible that Thomas Dewey might win instead if he were to make a similar promise, though whether he would keep it would be a different matter, and having Barkely as his Vic President would be interesting.​
 
If Dewey accepts a deal with the Dixiecrats, that makes that makes him illegitimate in the eyes of much of the nation. In 1952, he has to overcome that as well as a stalemate in Korea.
 
Let's see, if we went straight along Party Lines regarding the vote we would get:

  • Republican: 19
  • Democrat: 25
  • Split: 4

Which means that Harry Truman and Alben Barkley would get through with ease in such a scenario. However that is unlikely since I imagine many Congressmen from the South would be unwilling to support Truman unless he were willing to remain silent on Civil Rights, something which I cannot see him willing to agree on except under extreme pressure. In this case then it is possible that Thomas Dewey might win instead if he were to make a similar promise, though whether he would keep it would be a different matter, and having Barkely as his Vic President would be interesting.​

Right, in fact they'd vote for Thurmond. It could easily be stalemated.
 
The election of the President falls to the House of Representatives in that situation, IIRC...and even then, Truman probably still wins. Then again, I'm not attuned to the finer points of the ratio of votes per state to Democratic representation in the House in '48, according to the provisions of the amendment, so I could be wrong.

EDIT: Never mind, forgot that the Twentieth Amendment changed which Congress elects the new President.:eek:

In any case: I could certainly see the Dixiecrats holding Truman hostage over Civil Rights. If he gives in, it might lead blacks (who trended towards the Democrats under FDR) back to the Republicans. But, blacks might trend back to the Democrats any how if Civil Rights legislation is ultimately pushed for and passed under a Democratic President.
 
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EDIT: Never mind, forgot that the Twentieth Amendment changed which Congress elects the new President.:eek:

In any case: I could certainly see the Dixiecrats holding Truman hostage over Civil Rights. If he gives in, it might lead blacks (who trended towards the Democrats under FDR) back to the Republicans. But, blacks might trend back to the Democrats any how if Civil Rights legislation is ultimately pushed for and passed under a Democratic President.

And when pro-civil rights leaders like Dirksen come to power within the GOP, this will keep happening. It could result in a socially liberal GOP, and a split Democratic Party.
 
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