WI: 1940 U.S. oil embargo isn't total?

Also inspired (to a degree) by this thread...

I've read FDR intended it only to apply to military-grade fuels, like avgas. So what happens if he gets his intended embargo, instead of the total one OTL? Does she buy from the Sovs, or Venezuela, or Mexico, instead? Does the U.S. put pressure on the LatAm nations not to sell? If so, what is the threat? Does the U.S. simply buy up Lat Am oil, outbidding Japan?

Does Japan still need to "go South"? Does the need (desire?) to cut Chiang's LOCs trump the reduced oil need, if Japan is getting avgas & such from (frex) the Sovs, & civilian oil still from the U.S.?
 
A few questions to clarify...

Are Japanese bank accounts in US banks still frozen? Japan was dependent on the US for short and long term loans, and its global purchases went through the US and London banks. Freezing the accounts severely disrupted the low of transaction in japans economy.

Are cargo ships controlled by the US and Britain still prohibited from carrying Japans cargos? in 1940 close to half the cargo leaving or entering Japans home ports was in foreign flagged ships. Denying this capacity crippled Japans ability to supply its factories with raw materials and move goods & military supplies out.

Are the other items; steel, chemicals, machine tools, & dozens of other proscribed items altered in whats allowed?
 
A few questions to clarify...

Are Japanese bank accounts in US banks still frozen? Japan was dependent on the US for short and long term loans, and its global purchases went through the US and London banks. Freezing the accounts severely disrupted the low of transaction in japans economy.

Are cargo ships controlled by the US and Britain still prohibited from carrying Japans cargos? in 1940 close to half the cargo leaving or entering Japans home ports was in foreign flagged ships. Denying this capacity crippled Japans ability to supply its factories with raw materials and move goods & military supplies out.

Are the other items; steel, chemicals, machine tools, & dozens of other proscribed items altered in whats allowed?
I'm going to presume nothing else is changed, because, AIUI, oil was the big issue for Japan.

The U.S. goal is still to put pressure on Japan to quit fighting in China. Mine is to see if that can be done without provoking an attack.
 
Remember reading somewhere that Japan would have run out of hard currency to finance its imports in a couple of years anyway, even absent the embargo.
 
Remember reading somewhere that Japan would have run out of hard currency to finance its imports in a couple of years anyway, even absent the embargo.
I'm thinking, the German invasion of the SU will close the door on most "war-related" fuel imports, so Japan gets (maybe) 8mo freedom before events overtake, which maybe buys her 8mo before she's forced to go into DEI anyhow...if no deal with Chiang &/or FDR is reached, first.
 
After May, 1941 the Soviets aren't selling anything of military value to anyone. Venezuelan oil, while lots of it, is high in sulfur and requires special refineries to process, which Japan does not have. Additionally the US is not going to let any AVGAS etc going to Japan to transit the Panama Canal, so oil from Venezuela has a long long trip. For both Mexico and Venezuela, their major customer for oil is the USA - are they really going to piss off the northern giant to sell to Japan - and they will have to sell on credit as Japan has very limited dollar reserves and US assets or financing, as well as assets/loans from the Sterling zone are out of reach. Bottom line is that even before final oil embargo, the financial embargo and the existing materiel embargoes were choking Japan. Adding no AVGAS even with out the complete embargo on oil the chokehold is tighter and strangulation sooner. The reason Japan was buying AVGAS was because they could not refine enough locally from the crude they were buying.
 
I'm going to presume nothing else is changed, because, AIUI, oil was the big issue for Japan. ...

Freezing the bank accounts was the killer, with the cargos ships a very close second. Without access to the US banks Japan could not purchase oil.

Remember reading somewhere that Japan would have run out of hard currency to finance its imports in a couple of years anyway, even absent the embargo.

The currency reserves were very limited. Japan was using short and longer term debt to US and London backs to bridge gaps between revenue and expenditure, The China war was turning into a giant money pit.

Even if it did have oil the severe shortage of cargo ships fatally chokes Japans industry. At the start of the war Japan controlled only a bit over 40 modern blue water oil tankers. 60 total including coasters, harbor barges, antiques, and specialty tankers. Across all types the shortage was 40% of requirements or better. The emergency ship construction program started in 1941 did not reach replacement levels until 1943, when losses started to outpace construction.
 
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Freezing the bank accounts was the killer, with the cargos ships a very close second. Without access to the US banks Japan could not purchase oil.
With not barter options at all? (That's recognizing the number of sellers is awful small to start with.;))
At the start of the war Japan controlled only a bit over 40 modern blue water oil tankers. 60 total including coasters, harbor barges, antiques, and specialty tankers. Across all types the shortage was 40% of requirements or better. The emergency ship construction program started in 1941 did not reach replacement levels until 1943, when losses started to outpace construction.
It looks like the interwar modernization program, by taking numbers of older ships out of service, ended up having the exact opposite of the intended effect...:eek: :)rolleyes: )
 
In the prewar period the major export item that Japan had was SILK. They also may inexpensive fabrics like rayon. Japan of the late 1930s was not the Japan of the 70s with tons of automobiles and electronics building up huge trade surpluses. There aren't enough silkworms in Japan to make enough silk that Mexico or Venezuela has a market for to trade for to barter for significant oil. Another factor is, assuming only AVGAS is under total embargo, neither Mexico nor Venezuela has a lot of refining capacity for AVGAS. Part of the reason for Japanese shortage of AVGAS was the limited refining capacity of Japanese facilities to refine this product. If you can't refine crude to the useful products you need, a lake of oil does you no good. OTL in the latter stages of the war Japan had to run some ships on unrefined but high quality crude from DEI as the ability to refine crude even to bunker fuel had been trashed.
 
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