WI 1939 Japan blockaded the western concessions in China, Berlin-style?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
When I first read of the Tianjin Incident of 1939 in China (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tientsin_incident) the parallels with the Soviet Blockade of West Berlin nearly 10 years later were striking.

The Japanese Army blockaded the British concession

The Japanese were in part retaliating for British support for the Chinese Nationalist currency over the puppet government currency (much like the Soviets were retaliating for the introduction of the Deutschemark in the western zones). The Japanese were also trying to gain a legitimacy advantage for themselves and their puppets over the ChiNats and westerners, much like the later Berlin Crises were threatened in the name of forcing the west to make deals with and thereby recognize the GDR, which they refused to treat as other than a Soviet puppet at the time.

So what if the Tianjin policy of 39 spread and this got bigger. It ran from June to September. What if the Japanese did a blockade of all British concessions in China, at least from the landward side.

Which economy would be hit worse, the concessions or occupied China?

Does such a move automatically mean war?

Does it mean western withdrawal?

How do the British supply their concessions?

Does it change Britain's willingness to make anti-Hitler commitments in Europe?

How could it all end?
 

trurle

Banned
Japan did exactly this (blockade of British concessions, mostly represented by Hong Kong) in November 1939-1940 campaigns. I do not clearly understand how your "what if" is different from the actual course of events.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The Japanese did not blockade Hong Kong and regular travel continued between Hong Kong, occupied China, free China and the outside world until 7 December 1941. Also in a description of the Tianjin affair I read that the international settlement in Shanghai was left alone because it was "too big a nut to crack".
 
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