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US was a crucial trade partner to Japan in the pre-war period. The Japanese imported 80% of its oil from America and the importation of scrap metal was essential to its armament industry. However the US did not cut this lifeline until 1941, enabling the Japanese military to modernize and ultimately take over much of Asia.

What if Roosevelt imposed the embargo in 1938, say over the USS Panay incident? What would Japan do about it? For starters the Japanese navy was much weaker, with less carriers and unimpressive carrier aircraft. Its naval personnel were also inexperienced. The US fleet at this time was not yet headquartered in Hawaii, being anchored on the west coast, safely away from carrier attack.

It seems the US held greater advantage in 1938 than 1941. Would this force Japan to cave in to American demands because Japan was in no position to do anything about it?
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