WI: 1923 - Italy+Turkey vs Greece+Yugoslavia, as the Corfu Incident spirals into war

[Magnum]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriatic_Question
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_of_Fiume

Mussolini had recently come to power, an Italian general was killed in mysterious circumstances on the Albanian-Greek border, Italy presented onerous demands which the Greeks did not accept in full, Italy occupied Corfu, the Greek fleet was withdrawn in Volos Bay for fear the Italians might attack it, tensions were extremely high all around, with Italy threatening to leave the League of Nations and Yugoslavia, who themselves had a long-running dispute with Italy, declaring their support for Greece.

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk meanwhile was reportedly being advised to seize the opportunity and restart the war with Greece that had ended the year before.

OTL, the Greeks caved.

ITTL, Ataturk reaches an agreement with Mussolini and decides to initiate hostilities by attacking western Thrace.

How do things go from here?

 

[tallthinkev]

Were there any British or French forces still based in Greece at that time?

 

[formion]

I would think that Britain wouldn't allow things to escalate. If it seems that Italy will be able to annex Corfu and perhaps other Ionian islands, Albania, Dalmatia, then the balance of power is seriously compromized. So soon after WW1 I doubt Mussolini would be able to appear so aggresive. France at the same time has invested into a close relationship with Yugoslavia. So, I think the Entente powers will intervene before escalation.

 

[cjc]

I would think that Britain wouldn't allow things to escalate. If it seems that Italy will be able to annex Corfu and perhaps other Ionian islands, Albania, Dalmatia, then the balance of power is seriously compromized. So soon after WW1 I doubt Mussolini would be able to appear so aggresive. France at the same time has invested into a close relationship with Yugoslavia. So, I think the Entente powers will intervene before escalation.

This soon after ww1, whith the 10 year plan in Briton? I highly doubt it.

 

[Magnum]

This soon after ww1, whith the 10 year plan in Briton? I highly doubt it.

Britain had already gotten rid of its PM who wanted to defend British rights acquired by Treaty against rebel forces of a defeated Central Powers nation the year before - no way are they going to approve an expedition against a regional power that's a former ally in order to achieve nothing in particular

 

[formion]

I doubt an expedition is needed. Sanctions will be more than enough. In the Chanak Crisis, sanctions couldn't achieve anything due to the nature of the national liberation movement of Kemal. But against Italy? I think that it will be more than enough. Perhaps even the threat of sanctions will be enough.

 

[Magnum]

I doubt an expedition is needed. Sanctions will be more than enough. In the Chanak Crisis, sanctions couldn't achieve anything due to the nature of the national liberation movement of Kemal. But against Italy? I think that it will be more than enough. Perhaps even the threat of sanctions will be enough.

Remember, this is Benny the Moose (granted, in a short window where his power wasn't yet absolute) we're talking about here. He shrugged off sanctions OTL.

Plus, France was supportive of the Turks

 

[formion]

Plus, France was supportive of the Turks

Indeed, supportive to reclaim the Smyrna Zone and East Thrace. Would France be supportive for a turkish annexation of west Thrace and perhaps Macedonia? I don't know because there were not even talks regarding the topic in the OTL timeline. However, I always found the french support to the Kemal government as part of the anglo-french rivalry in Middle East, not an unconditional for turkish irredentism regarding the pre-1913 borders.

Moreover, its 1923 we are talking about. The whole of Europe slowly recovers from WW1. France has its hands tight in the Ruhr occupation, where English and American support are paramount. A generalized Balkan war would be catastrophic at that point. Not to mention that Greece had taken substantial loans before and during WW1 and french bankers wanted payment. A totaly destroyed greek economy wouldn't help in that part.

Remember, this is Benny the Moose (granted, in a short window where his power wasn't yet absolute) we're talking about here. He shrugged off sanctions OTL.

I completely agree with the highlighted part. If I remember correctly at that point Benny was in thin ice, as his power was not consolidated at all. Even an opportunist like Benny wouldn't risk a war at that point. The situation was very different than the late 30s. At this point he was trying to bully around, but only up to point he faced resistance (not armed resistance per se, but diplomatic as well).

 

[Magnum]

Indeed, supportive to reclaim the Smyrna Zone and East Thrace. Would France be supportive for a turkish annexation of west Thrace and perhaps Macedonia? I don't know because there were not even talks regarding the topic in the OTL timeline. However, I always found the french support to the Kemal government as part of the anglo-french rivalry in Middle East, not an unconditional for turkish irredentism regarding the pre-1913 borders.

Moreover, its 1923 we are talking about. The whole of Europe slowly recovers from WW1. France has its hands tight in the Ruhr occupation, where English and American support are paramount. A generalized Balkan war would be catastrophic at that point. Not to mention that Greece had taken substantial loans before and during WW1 and french bankers wanted payment. A totaly destroyed greek economy wouldn't help in that part.



I completely agree with the highlighted part. If I remember correctly at that point Benny was in thin ice, as his power was not consolidated at all. Even an opportunist like Benny wouldn't risk a war at that point. The situation was very different than the late 30s. At this point he was trying to bully around, but only up to point he faced resistance (not armed resistance per se, but diplomatic as well).

Thing is, Benny is partly influenced by the situation around him - if, for internal political reasons, Greece tells him to fuck off, and afterwards Ataturk invades Western Thrace, serious Italian military action (and not just occupying Corfu) against Greece is nearly guaranteed; doing nothing under those circumstances would make him look weak

 

[TimTurner]

if Italy+Turkey wins, what are internal consequences in Yugoslavia and Greece?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

if Italy+Turkey wins, what are internal consequences in Yugoslavia and Greece?

Not sure if this is necroing the thread. If that is I offer my apology...

If that were to happen, Turkey would gain at most Western Thrace and maybe... with a bit of luck, the islands on the coast of Anatolia (Lesbos, Chios, Samos). I don't know what Italy wanted, other than Corfu. Maybe the entire Ionian Islands? That would really cripple the Greeks as it was one of the wealthiest place of Greece. Expect Greece to turn into a military dictatorship with more Fascist symptoms.

I can't tell for Yugoslavia. It depends on the nature of the war. If it is big, Italy will try to expand South along the coast. Too much gains will be avoided for the sake of not pissing of Belgrade. The little entente might just collapse earlier, which is good for Hungary.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Thing is, Benny is partly influenced by the situation around him - if, for internal political reasons, Greece tells him to fuck off, and afterwards Ataturk invades Western Thrace, serious Italian military action (and not just occupying Corfu) against Greece is nearly guaranteed; doing nothing under those circumstances would make him look weak

Militarily, Greece was defeated in 1922. So a new war in 1923 would not be ideal for Greece. But invading mainland Greece is another thing. It brings the nation together and pressures the British to do something, whether for the best or worst of Greece (best being Greek territorial integrity protected, worst is losing Western Thrace and the Eastern Aegean Islands to Turkey and Corfu/Ionian Islands to Italy).

I think Ataturk dreamed for more land stretching at least to Thessaloniki. But by 1923, that is really unlikely in my opion. Although the Bulgariansmay prefer Turkey over Greece as the latter was really pressuring assimilation (not that Turkey would be too tolerant but the Bulgarians don't know it yet).

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I doubt an expedition is needed. Sanctions will be more than enough. In the Chanak Crisis, sanctions couldn't achieve anything due to the nature of the national liberation movement of Kemal. But against Italy? I think that it will be more than enough. Perhaps even the threat of sanctions will be enough.

The British only need to send a navy to halt the Italians. But whether they will allow it. A chain reaction will happen if they do. If they don't, there is no telling what would happen. The British don't want a new war after one major war ended.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Indeed, supportive to reclaim the Smyrna Zone and East Thrace. Would France be supportive for a turkish annexation of west Thrace and perhaps Macedonia? I don't know because there were not even talks regarding the topic in the OTL timeline. However, I always found the french support to the Kemal government as part of the anglo-french rivalry in Middle East, not an unconditional for turkish irredentism regarding the pre-1913 borders.

Moreover, its 1923 we are talking about. The whole of Europe slowly recovers from WW1. France has its hands tight in the Ruhr occupation, where English and American support are paramount. A generalized Balkan war would be catastrophic at that point. Not to mention that Greece had taken substantial loans before and during WW1 and french bankers wanted payment. A totaly destroyed greek economy wouldn't help in that part.



I completely agree with the highlighted part. If I remember correctly at that point Benny was in thin ice, as his power was not consolidated at all. Even an opportunist like Benny wouldn't risk a war at that point. The situation was very different than the late 30s. At this point he was trying to bully around, but only up to point he faced resistance (not armed resistance per se, but diplomatic as well).

Western Thrace is not pre 1913 border. If we look at the pre-1913 border it would be much bigger and stretching to Albania. Again, that is very unlikely, I'd say impossible. Western Thrace is not. It depends on whether France thinks it is worth to keep the Turks as a friend. They could just look away or steadily refuse. Though I don't think France wanted a new war again. And if they bluff, I wonder if Ataturk falls for it.

 

[Phoenix_jz]

I don't know if the Turks would exactly be thrilled to be working with the Italians, after having just fought two consecutive wars against them and allies of them. Don't forget the original post-war peace settlement plans foresaw Italy getting a sizable chunk of Turkey as a sphere of influence.

And I don't think Italy would go for a war, since that would only invite conflict with Britain and France, and Mussolini would have to go to the King for permission to pursue a war with the Turks against the Greeks. Maybe in a stroke of luck for everyone involved the King arrests him on the spot? A war would destroy all ongoing negotiations.

That being said - Britain, if she needs to and wants to get concessions out of Italy, will do the exact same thing she did in 1914/1915 and again in 1918 - restrict coal imports to Italy and threaten to bring the economy to a standstill. Unless Coolidge decides to step in to ensure that American coal gets to Italy unimpeded by the British, this will be a serious issue for Italy. Mussolini was able to shrug off sanctions in OTL, in 1935-36, because of deals with powers such as the USSR. That's not likely to happen with the USSR in 1923, which has only just won the Russian Civil War.

If the LoN really, really needs to shut Italy down, they have the tools to do it without going to war, and perhaps showing spine in 1923 would save the world a whole lot of trouble down the road over the next couple decades...

 

[Lee-Sensei]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriatic_Question
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_of_Fiume

Mussolini had recently come to power, an Italian general was killed in mysterious circumstances on the Albanian-Greek border, Italy presented onerous demands which the Greeks did not accept in full, Italy occupied Corfu, the Greek fleet was withdrawn in Volos Bay for fear the Italians might attack it, tensions were extremely high all around, with Italy threatening to leave the League of Nations and Yugoslavia, who themselves had a long-running dispute with Italy, declaring their support for Greece.

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk meanwhile was reportedly being advised to seize the opportunity and restart the war with Greece that had ended the year before.

OTL, the Greeks caved.

ITTL, Ataturk reaches an agreement with Mussolini and decides to initiate hostilities by attacking western Thrace.

How do things go from here?

That’s OOC for Ataturk. His territorial goals were very limited after establishing pushing the Greeks out of Anatolia and taking Eastern Thrace.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

I don't know if the Turks would exactly be thrilled to be working with the Italians, after having just fought two consecutive wars against them and allies of them. Don't forget the original post-war peace settlement plans foresaw Italy getting a sizable chunk of Turkey as a sphere of influence.

And I don't think Italy would go for a war, since that would only invite conflict with Britain and France, and Mussolini would have to go to the King for permission to pursue a war with the Turks against the Greeks. Maybe in a stroke of luck for everyone involved the King arrests him on the spot? A war would destroy all ongoing negotiations.

That being said - Britain, if she needs to and wants to get concessions out of Italy, will do the exact same thing she did in 1914/1915 and again in 1918 - restrict coal imports to Italy and threaten to bring the economy to a standstill. Unless Coolidge decides to step in to ensure that American coal gets to Italy unimpeded by the British, this will be a serious issue for Italy. Mussolini was able to shrug off sanctions in OTL, in 1935-36, because of deals with powers such as the USSR. That's not likely to happen with the USSR in 1923, which has only just won the Russian Civil War.

If the LoN really, really needs to shut Italy down, they have the tools to do it without going to war, and perhaps showing spine in 1923 would save the world a whole lot of trouble down the road over the next couple decades...

I’m pretty sure that the Russians funded and supplied the Turks with war materials and equipment OTL.

 

[lukedalton]

I’m pretty sure that the Russians funded and supplied the Turks with war materials and equipment OTL.

Same for the italians , sure they have fought before but Ataturk was not really choosy about who give him help

 

[fraa Jad]

Although the Bulgarians may prefer Turkey over Greece as the latter was really pressuring assimilation (not that Turkey would be too tolerant but the Bulgarians don't know it yet).

I'm pretty sure my family that was still in the Salonika area at the time would have preferred the Turks to the Greeks. Some of the stories that were passed down to my of the Greek policies against the Bulgarians are quite horrific. Football hooligans from Athens still use "Bulgarian" as an insult to people from Thessaloniki. You're right that Ataturk wouldn't have been better but they wouldn't know it yet. And of course you know that Ataturk himself is from Thessaloniki; I've visited their family house.

EDIT: It just dawned on me that all of my great-grandparents were born in the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I don't know if the Turks would exactly be thrilled to be working with the Italians, after having just fought two consecutive wars against them and allies of them. Don't forget the original post-war peace settlement plans foresaw Italy getting a sizable chunk of Turkey as a sphere of influence.

And I don't think Italy would go for a war, since that would only invite conflict with Britain and France, and Mussolini would have to go to the King for permission to pursue a war with the Turks against the Greeks. Maybe in a stroke of luck for everyone involved the King arrests him on the spot? A war would destroy all ongoing negotiations.

That being said - Britain, if she needs to and wants to get concessions out of Italy, will do the exact same thing she did in 1914/1915 and again in 1918 - restrict coal imports to Italy and threaten to bring the economy to a standstill. Unless Coolidge decides to step in to ensure that American coal gets to Italy unimpeded by the British, this will be a serious issue for Italy. Mussolini was able to shrug off sanctions in OTL, in 1935-36, because of deals with powers such as the USSR. That's not likely to happen with the USSR in 1923, which has only just won the Russian Civil War.

If the LoN really, really needs to shut Italy down, they have the tools to do it without going to war, and perhaps showing spine in 1923 would save the world a whole lot of trouble down the road over the next couple decades...

Turkish-Italian hostility in 1920 was rather low. Italy evacuated Anatolia and supported Turkey against Greece. Working together would be okay.

The league of nations only worked against small nations like Greece and Bulgaria. They failed against Japan. It won't be successful against Italy. It really depends on what the UK wants. Consider this. The UK and France are just out of war. They would not necessarily like Italian expansion but that does not guarantee an intervention. Britain can use the Navy to halt the Italian invasion. If the Italians continue it there are two options: 1. go to war or 2. give Italy what they want in a different way (treaty)
War is only possible if Italy attacks the Royal Navy or anything belonging to the UK. Otherwise public opinion is not going to allow a new war. The British give Italy something in a treaty and Greece can't do much other than refuse it. Refusing it results in war and probably no British intervention.

The British have an advantage though. If they allow Turkey to wreck Greece with Italy in exchange for Mosul Vilayet being a part of British Iraq then that is an advantage for the British. Something they would consider at least.