WI: 1919 Pro-Union Lithuanian Coup Succeeds

In 1919, the Polish government under Chief of State Józef Piłsudski attempted to engineer a coup of the Lithuanian government, with the goal of instating a cabinet that would unify with Poland and re-establish the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The coup as we know it failed for a variety of reasons, primarily a lower than expected pool of Lithuanian support, and a premature uprising of Polish volunteers spurred by poor communications leading to the plot being discovered and snuffed out by the Lithuanians.

Unlikely as it may be, what might the ramifications of a successful coup of the Lithuanian government and subsequent restoration of the Commonwealth be?
 
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The germans will immediately argue that the poles no longer need the corridor
But Versailles had already been signed by the Germans by the time the coup was supposed to happen. So any diplomatic attempts to recover the Corridor by the Germans will be blocked surely by the French and probably by the British, and Germany was in no position to enforce their claims militarily.
 
But Versailles had already been signed by the Germans by the time the coup was supposed to happen. So any diplomatic attempts to recover the Corridor by the Germans will be blocked surely by the French and probably by the British, and Germany was in no position to enforce their claims militarily.

True, but it would be an argument that might eventually work.
 
Now normally, I would argue that the coup (at least reading this) was likely to succeed had it not been for a sheer lack of communication, but that may be optimism talking, still, I like the concept and I would argue some ramifications of this:

The coup comes in shortly after the Polish-Lithuanian War, while the Polish-Soviet War was hitting into full gear now. The coup comes at a time where we're closing in on the end of the 1919 Polish offensive, a unified Commonwealth, coupled with the inclusion of Belarus would effectively restore Poland to near its pre-partition territories (short of perhaps Ukraine wholesale, but Poland wasn't willing for control of that territory in particular, opting instead to maintain a Ukrainian state, allied or client state, as part of its Intermarium alliance aimed towards Soviet Russia (with France's hope to have it aim towards Germany as well because the hate-boner's strong with that one.))

In addition, with a victory at the Battle of Daugavpils at the end of the year, it would make the idea of the Intermarium alliance more palatable to Latvia (who did not join because Lithuania was a closer ally than Poland, something that wouldn't matter now that Lithuania is part of Poland. Though any plans of turning this alliance into a PLC 2.0. is moot so long as White Russia and (most especially) the British are opposed to it.
 
Assuming history stays on pretty much the same relative path who would keep Vilnius after WW2? Who would the soviets give it to, because unless they decide to keep the puppet state unified they can give it to either Poland or put it in the Lithuanian SSR (assuming they still annex it)
 
But Versailles had already been signed by the Germans by the time the coup was supposed to happen. So any diplomatic attempts to recover the Corridor by the Germans will be blocked surely by the French and probably by the British, and Germany was in no position to enforce their claims militarily.
Germans wanted that land back, they may not be able to take action but I doubt that would stop them from making the arguement.
 
Germans wanted that land back, they may not be able to take action but I doubt that would stop them from making the arguement.

Maybe so, but it's going to be shot down almost immediately, again because of the French (who will veto anything that surely make Germany more powerful than it was post-Versailles.) No matter how many times they drum that up, France would never allow Germany to get West Prussia & Danzig.

It also helps that France was in strong support of Poland during these wars, precisely because they wanted Poland to serve as the powerful check vs. the Germans on the East, much to the consternation of both the Americans (who at this point didn't care anymore and went back to isolationism) and the British (who still heavily supported the Russian Whites and wanted to secure for them as much pre-war territory as possible (sans Poland of course.))
 
Now normally, I would argue that the coup (at least reading this) was likely to succeed had it not been for a sheer lack of communication, but that may be optimism talking, still, I like the concept and I would argue some ramifications of this:

The coup comes in shortly after the Polish-Lithuanian War, while the Polish-Soviet War was hitting into full gear now. The coup comes at a time where we're closing in on the end of the 1919 Polish offensive, a unified Commonwealth, coupled with the inclusion of Belarus would effectively restore Poland to near its pre-partition territories (short of perhaps Ukraine wholesale, but Poland wasn't willing for control of that territory in particular, opting instead to maintain a Ukrainian state, allied or client state, as part of its Intermarium alliance aimed towards Soviet Russia (with France's hope to have it aim towards Germany as well because the hate-boner's strong with that one.))

In addition, with a victory at the Battle of Daugavpils at the end of the year, it would make the idea of the Intermarium alliance more palatable to Latvia (who did not join because Lithuania was a closer ally than Poland, something that wouldn't matter now that Lithuania is part of Poland. Though any plans of turning this alliance into a PLC 2.0. is moot so long as White Russia and (most especially) the British are opposed to it.
Considering the sheer population disparity between the two I don't think a smaller support base among the Lithuanians would be a critical factor in the coup's failure, but solving the communications issues plaguing the coup seems like it would be a difficult challenge. How this would be done I don't really know, though I think avoiding the Sejny Uprising would help quite a bit (and probably lead to a later date for the actual execution of the coup).

I think that the international (and for that matter internal) reputation of a united Commonwealth is interesting to think about here. On the internal aspect, you have obviously a massive point of pride for the Polish people (though likely a divided one for the Lithuanians and other nationalities), which may well spur furthered Polish irredentism against Russia. Depending on how the Polish-Soviet War ends up concluding, you may have the border pushed even further East.

As for an international view, I can see this spurring some degree of Franco-Soviet enmity. With Russia's empire now largely dismantled, the Commonwealth is now the go-to ally of France for helping hold Germany's head down; given that France is now offering support to a historic enemy of Russia that has just eaten a large section of their more valuable European territories, they are unlikely to be pleased with their former ally seemingly stabbing them in the back. This in mind, might the Soviets angle to cut out the middleman of Poland (as it was seen to exporting the revolution to Europe) and try to influence Weimar Germany (perhaps by supporting communist attempts to overthrow the government such as the Bavarian uprising OTL) into forming a new anti-Commonwealth axis?
 
Maybe so, but it's going to be shot down almost immediately, again because of the French (who will veto anything that surely make Germany more powerful than it was post-Versailles.) No matter how many times they drum that up, France would never allow Germany to get West Prussia & Danzig.

It also helps that France was in strong support of Poland during these wars, precisely because they wanted Poland to serve as the powerful check vs. the Germans on the East, much to the consternation of both the Americans (who at this point didn't care anymore and went back to isolationism) and the British (who still heavily supported the Russian Whites and wanted to secure for them as much pre-war territory as possible (sans Poland of course.))

This the same France that allowed Germany to remilitarize the Rheinland and march into the Sudetenland. Even without Hitler, I think that would happen. Germany would then have a decent shot at the land corridor. If they are willing to shove CZ under the bus why not Poland?
 
Because you're thinking of France in the 1930s where its using appeasement as an excuse to build up against Germany (i.e. trading land for time, even though I feel that was a horrible idea in the long run, but that's beside the point.) Just because its the same French Republic, doesn't mean it's the same France between 1930s when its appeasing to Germany (begrudgingly) and the France of 1919 and the 1920s, where France and allies (Belgium, the U.K.) and the U.S. occupied the Rhineland, and further occupied Frankfurt and the Ruhr industrial area because the post-war Weimar Republic was defaulting on its reparations.

While I will admit that they can't keep it up forever, by that point, should the Commonwealth prove powerful enough, they themselves will stand against taking Polish land. Therefore, I still stand by my argument. Germany is not getting the Corridor at any point short of military action.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
It would be a bad idea for the plotters to simply overthrow the government and declare a union with Poland immediately afterwards. There is a very high chance of a countercoup or revolt if they do that. Also, Lithuanians won’t be fond of getting dragged into the Polish-Soviet war if they do that and might even collaborate with the Soviets.

A more gradual approach would be better. They should consolidate power, co-opt or suppress potential opponents, and pump out anti-German, anti-Soviet, anti-Communist, and pro-Polish propaganda. They should push hard to annex Klaipeda and maybe even Tilsit and the Curonian spit at Versailles. The fact that this would generate German resentment is a good thing because it allows the new regime to use Germany as a boogeyman to justify unification with Poland.

During the Polish-Soviet war, it would probably be best for the Lithuanian junta to support Poland with supplies, territorial access, and “volunteers” while maintaining a fig leaf of neutrality. If the Soviets decide to ignore this “neutrality” and launch an “unprovoked” attack on Lithuania this could be exploited for a rally around the flag effect and used as another reason to justify unification.
 
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Because you're thinking of France in the 1930s where its using appeasement as an excuse to build up against Germany (i.e. trading land for time, even though I feel that was a horrible idea in the long run, but that's beside the point.) Just because its the same French Republic, doesn't mean it's the same France between 1930s when its appeasing to Germany (begrudgingly) and the France of 1919 and the 1920s, where France and allies (Belgium, the U.K.) and the U.S. occupied the Rhineland, and further occupied Frankfurt and the Ruhr industrial area because the post-war Weimar Republic was defaulting on its reparations.

While I will admit that they can't keep it up forever, by that point, should the Commonwealth prove powerful enough, they themselves will stand against taking Polish land. Therefore, I still stand by my argument. Germany is not getting the Corridor at any point short of military action.
True, but the Germans will be able to beat P-L as Lithuania doesn't bring that much to the party.
 
True, but the Germans will be able to beat P-L as Lithuania doesn't bring that much to the party.

Well of course...

Even with Lithuania tacked on, and assuming Germany still goes Nazi, with everything going according to how it panned out IOTL, the Commonwealth still wouldn't stand a chance.

I never said Germany wouldn't win the fight. I'm just saying, it wouldn't get the Polish corridor without a fight.
 
Because you're thinking of France in the 1930s where its using appeasement as an excuse to build up against Germany (i.e. trading land for time, even though I feel that was a horrible idea in the long run, but that's beside the point.) Just because its the same French Republic, doesn't mean it's the same France between 1930s when its appeasing to Germany (begrudgingly) and the France of 1919 and the 1920s, where France and allies (Belgium, the U.K.) and the U.S. occupied the Rhineland, and further occupied Frankfurt and the Ruhr industrial area because the post-war Weimar Republic was defaulting on its reparations.

While I will admit that they can't keep it up forever, by that point, should the Commonwealth prove powerful enough, they themselves will stand against taking Polish land. Therefore, I still stand by my argument. Germany is not getting the Corridor at any point short of military action.
Poland or any version of it will never, ever be able to stand against a United Germany alone and the restrictions on Germany will not last forever, France and especially Britain just dont have the appropriate desire or will power to hold Germany down forever.
In all likelihood, sooner rather than later the germans will be stronger than the poles by orders of magnitude and will find an easy ally in however is in charge in Moscow.
In that regard it would be better to secede the corridor to a more moderate Germany than it would be to deny it to them and force them to take it later
 
Well of course...

Even with Lithuania tacked on, and assuming Germany still goes Nazi, with everything going according to how it panned out IOTL, the Commonwealth still wouldn't stand a chance.

I never said Germany wouldn't win the fight. I'm just saying, it wouldn't get the Polish corridor without a fight.

Nazis or no Nazis the Germans will really want that corridor back. It splits apart Germany.
 
There wouldn't be an actual restoration of the commonwealth. Lithuania would remain a separate state, although its foreign policy would be dictated by Poland. The really interesting thing in such a scenario is how Lithuania would develop internally. Piłsudski envisioned it as a multinational state of ethnic Lithuanians, Poles and Belorussians, more like the old Grand Duchy of Lithuania than the Lithuanian nation-state which appeared in OTL. And the big question is: would Lithuania's people eventually accept such a union or not?

In that regard it would be better to secede the corridor to a more moderate Germany than it would be to deny it to them and force them to take it later

LOL! So WW2 started when Poland forced Germany to take the corridor?
 
LOL! So WW2 started when Poland forced Germany to take the corridor?
Bring it down a notch champ, I'm not saying Poland started ww2, I'm saying with alternate sea access it's more intelligent for Poland to cede the corridor to a non radicalized Germany than it is to try and hold it against an inherently stronger state that will almost certainly make a bid for it eventually.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Bring it down a notch champ, I'm not saying Poland started ww2, I'm saying with alternate sea access it's more intelligent for Poland to cede the corridor to a non radicalized Germany than it is to try and hold it against an inherently stronger state that will almost certainly make a bid for it eventually.
You're forgetting that Lithuania's only port is Klaipeda, or as the Germans called it when they owned it, Memel. They'll just demand Klaipeda back if the get the corridor, then Poznan, then Upper Silesia.
 
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