WI: 1903 Anglo-German Alliance

For those who are a bit lazy and do not wish to read the following, what if there was no Anglo-French Entente but rather a Anglo-German Alliance, signed in 1903? Would there still be *WWI? Would the *Russo-Japanese War spiral out of control? It is possible for there to be a Anglo-French Non-Aggression pact, but who ever followed those?


“November 30th, 1899 marked the beginning of a new model in Anglo-German relationships, and subsequently a new model of European and world politics. Although Baron Hermann von Eckardstein, First Secretary of the German Embassy, had first contacted Joseph Chamberlain in the previous year, there had been little progress and certainly nothing official. However, in November of 1899, the Chamberlain was given another chance. Following a friendly and promising visit from Kaiser Wilhelm II and Bernhard von Bülow, Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Chamberlain openly praised Germany and spoke of a possible future together, speaking of “a new friendship between the Teutonic race and the two great trans-Atlantic branches of the Anglo-Saxon race which would become a potent influence on the future of the world.” [1] This newly budding friendship would be tested very soon.


“In attempt to stop matériel from reaching the Boers in the Free State and Transvaal, the Royal Navy effectively began intercepting and inspecting foreign ships, including the German vessels the Herzog and Bundesrath. The searches came out empty and caused considerable outcry from the German people and Reichstag. Anglo-German relations were nearly irreversibly damaged as Admiral Tirpitz attempted to pass th Second Naval Law. However, these flames were suppressed by von Bülow and Friedrich von Holstein, who were able to convince Wilhelm that such an expansion of the Kaiserliche Marine would be seen as too aggressive against the Royal Navy, an ally Wilhelm very much wanted. The Second Naval Law did pass but it was weakened from Tirpitz's original hopes, only increasing the number of battleships by seven and instead focusing on a cruisers to support colonial territories. The reasoning for this was that the expected friendship would take care of most naval concerns while the Reichsheer would take care of military concerns on land.


There was no official aligning of the British and German peoples until Arthur Balfour's term as Prime Minister. When Lord Salisbury resigned in late June of 1902, the Second Boer War had just ended and Edward VII's coronation would soon follow. Balfour replaced Lord Lansdowne as Secretary of State of Foreign Affairs with Joseph Chamberlain, mostly under appeal from Walter Rothschild, who was beginning to become a closer ally of both men. [2] What was more important, however, was his connection with Edward VII. The Rothschild family had kept close connections with the soon-to-be King, offering a fair amount of financial advice and Walter himself had been seen with the Prince, who was criticized for openly associating with Jews.


On February 7, 1903, the Anglo-German Alliance was signed.”


[1] A minor POD: IOTL Chamberlain said 'alliance' rather than 'friendship' and was mocked for such a premature statement.


[2] Walter Rothschild could've been a much more influential man. ITTL he is still interested in zoology and lepidopterist, but to a lesser extent, also focusing on the family banking and politics. The reason he would support Chamberlain would be due to his Zionist sympathies.
 
I posted this map in the map thread and shall do so here in a hope of starting interest.

alternate_wwi_alliances_europe_by_whanzel.png
 
Whanztastic

Why do you presume the Ottomans are in the entente camp? Given that Britain and Germany were the two main powers courting it and Russia its big enemy I would expect that if it enters the war it would go with the central power/allies whatever their called.

Also I suspect you wouldn't get Serbia and Bulgaria on the same side, unless it was possibly against the Turks.

Britain has an ancient alliance with Portugal but whether it would be activated in a major conflict is uncertain. I doubt it would be a major player.

Given the 1899 POD does this butterfly the Anglo-Japanese alliance? I would expect it would still occur as both Britain and Japan have concerns about Russia. However since Germany had taken part in the Triple intervention against Japan and an alliance with German would ease Britain's isolation its possible it might not be signed in 1901.

Steve
 
Whanztastic

Why do you presume the Ottomans are in the entente camp? Given that Britain and Germany were the two main powers courting it and Russia its big enemy I would expect that if it enters the war it would go with the central power/allies whatever their called.

Also I suspect you wouldn't get Serbia and Bulgaria on the same side, unless it was possibly against the Turks.

Britain has an ancient alliance with Portugal but whether it would be activated in a major conflict is uncertain. I doubt it would be a major player.

Given the 1899 POD does this butterfly the Anglo-Japanese alliance? I would expect it would still occur as both Britain and Japan have concerns about Russia. However since Germany had taken part in the Triple intervention against Japan and an alliance with German would ease Britain's isolation its possible it might not be signed in 1901.

Steve

It is only a possible map. In this conception, A-H is an aggressor in the *Balkan War(s) and so, being an enemy of Russia, the Ottomans, and the minor states they all are against her. Also, I figured there still are the Anglo-Japanese treaties.
 

Al-Buraq

Banned
Already posted in regards to putative Anglo-German alliances in the early 20th C.


According to Paul Kennedy " Rise of Fall of British Naval Mastery", a strong factor in Britain's non-alliance with Germany and "semi-alliance" with France and Russia was Britain's relative Naval weakness by the turn of the 19th Century.
The RN could no longer rule the waves against multiple foes, so an Anglo-Japanese Alliance was made to allow a reduction of the Far East Squadron, an "understanding" with the US allowed a similar reduction of the Carribean and Pacific presence and a start was made on creating Commonwealth Navies.
If allied to Germany and nominally at risk of war with France and Russia (who knows where Italy would have ended up?) the RN would have as enemy coasts the entire channel, Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts of France, Half of North Africa a lot of the West African Coast and Indo-China threatening India and Malaya. The Russians were also positioned to threaten the Baltic and North Atlantic and on land, India (never forget India!). Help from Germany's fleet would have been (they thought) marginal as a Russo-French blockade of German ports could only be lifted by the RN.
Of course, all these fears came to pass in 1940.
The Entente Cordiale was not an alliance, just the best of a set of bad choices. Britain was careful to avoid the type of interlocking alliances that triggered the First World War and a formal deal with Imperial Germany would probably have brought war on a bit earlier with a worse result for Britain.
 
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