WI: 1876 Franco-Prussian War is avoided

[KMS Hoffnung]

My curiosity is what would happen to Germany, France, all of Continental Europe, and the West itself.

Would Großdeutschland work? Or would Kleindeutschland still happen? Would Bismarck become the Iron Chancellor? Are the unified ideas still flourishing in the German States? Does Prussia still be the leader of the German States?

Does France continue to keep it's Hegemony over continental Europe? Or does it lose its cultural and political grip over continental Europe? Does Industry eventually prevail in France, or does the presence of Napoleon III stagnate the economy?

Does Poland continue to get sectioned off? What does Austria do now their isn't a major conflict in German affairs?

This is for a plot that I am trying to make, although one brain makes it hard to calculate all the details.
Thanks!

 

[Tibi088]

You mean the 1870 war I presume?
Bismarck was already the chancellor, and with ample successes at his back unlikely to loose the job soon. And he was good enough to orchestrate a war with France -if not in 1870 than a bit later. It helps that the french believed in their own superiority and thus it wasnt too hard to goad them in to a conflict they thought they would win. So the war is delayed a bit and you still end up with pretty much OTL

Poland was already completly partitioned and I dont see that changing anytime soon.

 

[pjmidd]

To unify Germany , Bismarck needed an external threat and he picked on France ( not hard as France was rather publicly saying it was the number 1 land power in Europe. ). His only other realistic choice of threat was Russia ( Britain being a sea power ruled them out even if the issue of blood ties could be overcome ) and weakening Russia came with the risk of Poles agitating for at least home rule in all portions of the former Poland not just the Russian one.

So the policy of isolating France would have continued and one of the many crisis would have almost certainly resulted in some form of conflict. These could be smaller but once Bismarck left office in 1890 . Wilhelm II's foot in mouth issues probably break France's isolation as per OTL and a WW1 analogue occurs , almost certainly with similar sides due to the individual goals of nations ( Unless Germany does not build up its fleet for example Britain will grow closer to France and the fleet was Wilhelm's baby. Similarly Italy's territorial claims in Europe are vs Austro-Hungary so at best it stays neutral, Austro-Hungary and Russia will always clash over influence/control of the Balkans etc. )

 

[Grey Wolf]

Without a war in 1870, the logic of the situation is a continuing strengthening and centralising of the North German Confederation.