WI: 1856 election pushed to the house

[KaiserWilhelm]

Let's say that Fremont won Illinois while Fillmore won Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky, throwing the election to the House. I'm assuming Fillmore would be the favorite to win the contingent election in the House, but Republicans might be strongly opposed to that given his role in the Compromise of 1850. Would this result in causing a Civil War 4 years early? If not, how would Dred Scott go without Buchanan's machinations behind the scenes?

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Let's assume a personal scandal regarding Buchanan's personal life: while serving as US Minister to Great Britain he became besotted with a handsome younger man (black-sheep cadet of a noble family, ex-Guards officer). The chap exploited Buchanan's obvious infatuation; a minor but very pungent scandal. Reports of this reach America just before the November election, with the electoral effect specified by the OP; the election goes to the House (and Senate). By the time Congress meets to carry out that process, the Buchanan scandal has become so notorious that Buchanan can't be elected.

The House elected in 1854-55 will choose. That House was elected during the collapse of the Whigs and the formations of the Republican and "Know-Nothing" parties. Many Representatives changed party designations twice. IMO it would be a huge effort to determine their actual allegiances, requiring a ton of research.

IMO, Fillmore would get the votes of every slave state (15/31), and at least one free state, returning to the Presidency. Breckenridge would be elected VP by the Senate (which must choose between the top two finishers; Fillmore's running mate would be ineligible).

 

[Mikestone8]

IMO, Fillmore would get the votes of every slave state (15/31), and at least one free state, returning to the Presidency. Breckenridge would be elected VP by the Senate (which must choose between the top two finishers; Fillmore's running mate would be ineligible).

What stops the Dems from keeping the House deadlocked until March 4, so that VP-elect Breckenridge becomes POTUS? Weren't most of the Southern delegations Democratic?

 

[dmg86]

What potentially complicates things is that some states didn't hold their elections in November 1856. Congress tended not to meet until the fall or winter due to the heat in Washington DC in the summer so some states waited until November 1857 to have elections. Of course they would hold them earlier but it could be weeks or months before every state's represented in Congress. 4 slave states were among them.

 

[marktaha]

Remember Alternate Presidents story with President Fillmore elected in 1856-and a Northern secession.

 

[KaiserWilhelm]

What stops the Dems from keeping the House deadlocked until March 4, so that VP-elect Breckenridge becomes POTUS? Weren't most of the Southern delegations Democratic?

Republicans would do what was necessary to prevent Breckinridge from becoming President; Fillmore is better than Breck.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

What potentially complicates things is that some states didn't hold their elections in November 1856. Congress tended not to meet until the fall or winter due to the heat in Washington DC in the summer so some states waited until November 1857 to have elections. Of course they would hold them earlier but it could be weeks or months before every state's represented in Congress. 4 slave states were among them.

The incumbent House resolves the election. That is, the "lame-duck" House whose terms expire on 3 March. This was changed with the 20th Amendment in 1933, under which Congressional terms start 4 January, and Presidential terms start 20 January.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

What stops the Dems from keeping the House deadlocked until March 4, so that VP-elect Breckenridge becomes POTUS? Weren't most of the Southern delegations Democratic?

Democrats dominated the Deep South and Upper South delegations, and California, but Whig/"American"/Opposition Representatives controlled the DE, MD, KY, and MO delegations. Also, I'm pretty sure that the Republicans (most of whom had been elected as Whigs or "Americans") would support Fillmore if the alternative was Breckinridge, so most northern states would be on board.

Also, deadlocking the House would be seen as an underhanded maneuver, and even some Deep Southerners might balk, since Fillmore was no abolitionist.

Finally, the deadlock would have to hold until 3 March, and ISTM there would be a lot of pressure to end it.

So I really don't think the Democrats could arrange such an outcome..