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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ōtsu_incident

The Ōtsu incident was a failed assassination attempt of Nicholas II during his expedition to Imperial Japan in 1891. I've seen people talk about what would happen if the assassination was a success before but I am asking something a little different.

During the aftermath Emperor Meiji visited the Tsar on a Russian warship despite fears that he would be taken hostage. I imagine two interesting scenarios;

1: Nicholas II orders the Emperor taken hostage and they make a speedy retreat back to Russia, narrowly escaping the Japanese Navy before reaching Vladivostok.

2: Nicholas II blames the Emperor for his failed assassination and shoots Meiji dead with a pistol before escaping back to Russia on his ship.

What would happen? Would Japan pay ransom for their Emperor or go to war to avenge his death?
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