The Ōtsu incident was a failed assassination attempt of Nicholas II during his expedition to Imperial Japan in 1891. I've seen people talk about what would happen if the assassination was a success before but I am asking something a little different.
During the aftermath Emperor Meiji visited the Tsar on a Russian warship despite fears that he would be taken hostage. I imagine two interesting scenarios;
1: Nicholas II orders the Emperor taken hostage and they make a speedy retreat back to Russia, narrowly escaping the Japanese Navy before reaching Vladivostok.
2: Nicholas II blames the Emperor for his failed assassination and shoots Meiji dead with a pistol before escaping back to Russia on his ship.
What would happen? Would Japan pay ransom for their Emperor or go to war to avenge his death?