What it says. What happens if Zoran Đinđić, the liberal reformist Prime Minister of Serbia, is not assassinated in 2003? Say his bodyguard gets in the way, and the shot that killed him OTL kills the bodyguard but only wounds him. Đinđić then uses the political capital created by this to launch a serious crackdown on the Serbian Mafia and ultranationalists who tried to kill him so many times, arresting and imprisoning many of them.
What happens to Serbia? How does the situation with Kosovo change with a more moderate and charismatic leader? Does Serbia become a member state of the EU?