Why was there a war scare in Vienna and Berlin in 1887?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
i have seen references to a war scare, tension, advocacy by general staffs for preventive wars in 1887 that was unmatched again until 1914.

How exactly were Vienna and Berlin feeling threatened at the time? What did they see as drawing them into a war?
 
There were invasion scares in the UK during this period as well - there are several books on the subject.

It was hardly uncommon.

Besides, Europe was a powder keg of alliances during this time.
 
In 1887 Germany and Russia signed a "secret" reinsurance pact. Because the Russians were pushing in the Balkans and the Austrians opposed this, but Bismarck didn't want a war with Russia over the Balkans, he made this agreement with the Russians that they would have sacrificed AH in case of war with Russia while covering their back in case of war with France, hence making Germany and Russia allies in war.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
In 1887 Germany and Russia signed a "secret" reinsurance pact. Because the Russians were pushing in the Balkans and the Austrians opposed this, but Bismarck didn't want a war with Russia over the Balkans, he made this agreement with the Russians that they would have sacrificed AH in case of war with Russia while covering their back in case of war with France, hence making Germany and Russia allies in war.

How was it that the Austrians and Russians were coming into conflict at this time? At the time, Serbia was allied to Austria and Bulgaria was allied to Russia. The Bulgarian crisis was over the the Russians getting miffed at their erstwhile Bulgarian client, Alexander of Battenburg. It ended with him being replaced by Ferdinand. How was this any of Austria’s business, since they were not allied with Bulgaria anyway? How could the Russians think the Austrians were causing Russia trouble, when the whole thing was a bilateral affair between Bulgaria and Russia?

Was Russia thinking of invading Bulgaria to depose Alexander?

Even if, why would Austria oppose this? They had rescued their own Serbian ally from Alexander’s BUlgaria just a couple years before.

Did Vienna perceive the Russians as marching through an Austrian ally, like Romania, in order to reach Bulgaria?
 

althisfan

Banned
How was it that the Austrians and Russians were coming into conflict at this time? At the time, Serbia was allied to Austria and Bulgaria was allied to Russia. The Bulgarian crisis was over the the Russians getting miffed at their erstwhile Bulgarian client, Alexander of Battenburg. It ended with him being replaced by Ferdinand. How was this any of Austria’s business, since they were not allied with Bulgaria anyway? How could the Russians think the Austrians were causing Russia trouble, when the whole thing was a bilateral affair between Bulgaria and Russia?

Was Russia thinking of invading Bulgaria to depose Alexander?

Even if, why would Austria oppose this? They had rescued their own Serbian ally from Alexander’s BUlgaria just a couple years before.

Did Vienna perceive the Russians as marching through an Austrian ally, like Romania, in order to reach Bulgaria?
Russia was beginning to believe in the whole Pan-Slavic idea that gained steam from the 1850s on. Russia, and Russia alone, was supposed to be the "big brother", "mother", "protector", and everything else to the new little Slavic nations and the Balkans. Austria's idea of a Danubian Empire conflicted with this.
 

Anderman

Donor
In 1887 Germany and Russia signed a "secret" reinsurance pact. Because the Russians were pushing in the Balkans and the Austrians opposed this, but Bismarck didn't want a war with Russia over the Balkans, he made this agreement with the Russians that they would have sacrificed AH in case of war with Russia while covering their back in case of war with France, hence making Germany and Russia allies in war.

It´s a little more complicated, the reinsurance treaty don´t applied if Russia attacs Austria-Hungary or the German Empire attacs France.
 
How was this any of Austria’s business, since they were not allied with Bulgaria anyway? How could the Russians think the Austrians were causing Russia trouble, when the whole thing was a bilateral affair between Bulgaria and Russia?

Was Russia thinking of invading Bulgaria to depose Alexander?

Even if, why would Austria oppose this? They had rescued their own Serbian ally from Alexander’s BUlgaria just a couple years before.

Did Vienna perceive the Russians as marching through an Austrian ally, like Romania, in order to reach Bulgaria?

When you're a great power, everything is your business. The period of 1848-1914 was a period during which the balance of power in Europe was in flux, and there was a lot of uncertainty about which countries would come out on top, so from the Austrian point of view, any attempt by the Russians to gain more leverage over the Balkan nations came at the expense of their own influence there. Great power politics are more or less a zero-sum game, and if Russia got significant influence in Bulgaria, they would be in a position to launch a two-front attack on Austria (from the North through Poland and from the South through Bulgaria). If Austria could stop Russia from getting any influence in the Balkans, then the only major power on their southern border would be the Ottomans (who were not a major threat to them for a great many reasons), allowing them to focus all their energy towards guarding their northern border with Russia and Germany. Maybe that sounds overly paranoid to an ordinary person, but when the stakes of the game are as high as "total dominance over Europe" you can't afford to ever let your guard down.
 
It´s a little more complicated, the reinsurance treaty don´t applied if Russia attacs Austria-Hungary or the German Empire attacs France.

Still at the time was perceived as a German-Russian rapprochement (especially when the Russian-UK relations were all low) until Wilhelm II tore the treaty because he was like "I don't give a s, cause I can work the Tzar as and when I wish", as his usual getting wrong. But it allowed, especially after Mayerling, to defuse tensions with Wien. Not that it didn't help either as well.
 
IIRC England and France were having some really tough times too. There was a lot of Invasion literature about Germany, yes, but there was also a fair share about French invaders in England, and vice versa.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
It´s a little more complicated, the reinsurance treaty don´t applied if Russia attacs Austria-Hungary or the German Empire attacs France.

hmm, doesn't that make its practical significance zero, then? Is the importance of the treaty, and its cancellation, over-rated?
 
The reinsurance treaty meant that Russia could not join France or other powers even if Germany attacked France, and by the same token Germany could not make war on Russia in case of a Balkan crisis between Austria and Russia.
Bismarck really wanted a "League of the Three Emperors", since he saw this as the best way to make Germany safe on the east, and twice he convinced Russia and Austria to sign. Unfortunately for him, Austrian and Russian interests in the Balkans were at cross-purposes and the League never really worked.
There was also some opposition in Prussia itself, because the reinsurance treaty allowed Russia to export grain in Germany with a low tariff: the Prussian junkers were totally against this because of the competition to grain produced on their estates.
 

Anderman

Donor
hmm, doesn't that make its practical significance zero, then? Is the importance of the treaty, and its cancellation, over-rated?

The treaty meaned that the German Empire would not go to war as long the Russian Empire didn´t attack Austria-Hungary. If Austria-Hungary attacks Russia it would be without Germany. And the German Empire couldn´t just destroy the balance of power in Europe by destroying France.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Sounds like we have a fundamental difference in interpretation of what the reinsurance treaty entailed.
 
In my opinion, the war scare was probably not due to the Reinsurance Treaty because in 1887 it wasn't public knowledge. It's probably because the League of Three Emperors between Russia, Austria, and Germany ended in 1887 and there was a constant fear of war between Russia and Austria, which would naturally draw in Germany and most likely also France.
 
According to George Kennan, in his excellent book "The Decline of Bismarck's European Order", it was all set off by the Russians moving a cavalry division from Moscow to Galicia. Many in Europe saw an Austro-Russian war as an inevitability. The Austrians wanted to strike first and thus get the advantage of surprise, but they knew that the Germans would only support them if they were attacked by the Russians, and they feared to act alone. They therefore tried to persuade the Germans that the Russians were about to attack them, and to join them in a first strike. Many in Germany favoured just such a pre-emptive strike versus Russia, but Bismarck would have none of it. He saw no value to the enterprise. Germany could not defeat Russia in its entirety, she had no use for her territory, and the Russians would eventually recover anyway. Worse, the French might take the opportunity to attack Germany, and that would be a disaster. He had no intention to drag Germany into war with Russia just to benefit Austria.
 
Top