Why was Russia so freaked out by potential Bulgarian occupation of Constantinople in Balkan War?

raharris1973

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Russia strongly objected to the Bulgarians advancing into the city. I think they even went so far as to mobilize in response, and secure passage rights through Romania?

Why did Russia find prospective Bulgarian control so frightening?

What did other powers like the Austrians, Germans, British, French and Italians think of the same prospect?
 
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Deleted member 94680

They wanted control of the "Second Rome" for themselves. Partly for strategic reasons, as it would secure access to the Mediterranean for themselves, and partly for religious/mystical reasons as the Tsar controlling Constantinople would herald an era of Russian supremacy. Apparently.
 
A majority of Russia's exports went through the straits. Having them shut for whatever reason would and still be an economic disaster for Russia.

What did other powers like the Austrians, Germans, British, French and Italians think of the same prospect?
After arguing over and occasionally going to war with each other over the Eastern Question, everyone was surprised when the Balkan nations just decided to take matters of their independence into their own hands.
 

raharris1973

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But it seems to me that barring Russia having possession of the straits (or Thrace at least) itself, Russia should hope for it to be under the possession of weakest possible power.

Sure, the Ottomans were weaker than any of Britain, France, Germany or Austria-Hungary. But fundamentally, Bulgaria seems weaker than the Ottoman Empire.
 
At the time the 'Slavic' Bulgarians had shifted their alliance/aignment to Austria-Hungary. The Russian foreign office feared this link would give the Austrians control of Constantinople by proxy. They hoped the British aligned Ottomans would be a safer custodian. the book 'Sleep Walkers' on the origins of the Great War devotes multiple chapters to the snake pit of Balkans politics & how the Russians like everyone else lost control of the region and created explosive witches brew.
 
But it seems to me that barring Russia having possession of the straits (or Thrace at least) itself, Russia should hope for it to be under the possession of weakest possible power.

Sure, the Ottomans were weaker than any of Britain, France, Germany or Austria-Hungary. But fundamentally, Bulgaria seems weaker than the Ottoman Empire.
Bulgaria looked much weaker in retrospect than it did at the time. These were heady times, when there was talk of Bulgaria being the "Prussia of the Balkans" and having a robust economy or at least the appearance of one. Russia also had another pet Balkan project at this time that they thought was much closer to them in all matters diplomatically and wanted to promote Serbia over Bulgaria. Bulgaria had its fair share of anti-Russian politicians in the 1890s as well, so the feeling in Russia was that Bulgaria was not exactly the most loyal of allies to have. While British and French popular views always held Bulgaria to be the natural client of Russia, it was actually not a given thing and the situation in the Balkans were, as they always tend to be in that part of the world, a lot more complicated and intertwined.

Then there was the overall Russian belief that if anyone were to run the Straits it was to be Russia. For Russia to be "okay" with Bulgaria having the Straits would require in the Russian view of things to have reliable control over Bulgaria, which they did not have. There was also the question of whether the Bulgarians would be allowed to hang on to the Straits in the event of a victory. The worst possible scenario would have been, in the Russian view, for the Straits to be captured by Bulgarians from the Turks, only to be handed over to someone else after the war, or "returned" back to the Ottomans but under "supervision" of another and much more robust power.

"Better the Devil you know" seemed to have applied here on top of everything else.
 
Add into that a lot of the senior foreign office men were just not very bright. Better at intramural politics than whatever their job description entailed.
 

raharris1973

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What was the Russian intention to use its mobilized military, if at all, in case the Bulgarians kept pushing?

A land advance to attack Bulgaria through Romania?

Pressure on the Ottomans to invite a Russian landing force to Constantinople to "protect" it.

How would Russia have proceeded if Bulgaria got "lucky" and captured Constantinople before engaging against the Serbs and Greeks in Macedonia?

At the time the 'Slavic' Bulgarians had shifted their alliance/aignment to Austria-Hungary.

Really, so perhaps Austria really would have loved to see Bulgarian success in Thrace. Or, Bulgarian success might have bothered everybody, with the Russians thinking the Bulgarians are pro-Austrian, and the Austrians thinking the Bulgarians are pro-Russian.

A majority of Russia's exports went through the straits. Having them shut for whatever reason would and still be an economic disaster for Russia.

Hmm, perhaps the prospect of two opposing states controlling the straits, one on the European side and another on the Asian side, was more disturbing than both sides of the straits going to a single power. I suppose that fighting close to Constantinople for any period of time would end itself to Bulgaria and Turkey trading artillery volleys across the waterway, and commercial shippers being unwilling to carry on trade in those circumstances? Thoughts?
 
... Really, so perhaps Austria really would have loved to see Bulgarian success in Thrace. Or, Bulgarian success might have bothered everybody, with the Russians thinking the Bulgarians are pro-Austrian, and the Austrians thinking the Bulgarians are pro-Russian. ...

It appears the Austrians were consciously working on the Bulgarians as allies vs Serbia. I'd have to review the details, but the Austro Hungarian foreign office seems to have understood the Bulgarian government were crossways with Russia by 1912, maybe earlier.
 
Russia was more freaked out by the Liman’s von Sanders affair in late 1913 early 14 potentially putting the Turkish army under German command. The 1913 traffic through the Dardanelles was equal to the tonnage through the Suez Canal. If Turkey could not hold the straits then Russia had resolved that they would not pass to the control of another nation other than Russia. This was their ‘goal of the 20th century’. Russia recognised that it would take a general European war for the opportunity to come up. The British stake in this was that Russian grain was carried in British bottoms and closing the straits was a sensitive issue for British commerce.
 
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Russia has a long history of great interest in the area. Goes back hundreds of years. It is a matter of having a warm water access to the worlds oceans. My allay may not be my friend. Friends change. Alliances change.
 

Deleted member 94680

But it seems to me that barring Russia having possession of the straits (or Thrace at least) itself, Russia should hope for it to be under the possession of weakest possible power.

Sure, the Ottomans were weaker than any of Britain, France, Germany or Austria-Hungary. But fundamentally, Bulgaria seems weaker than the Ottoman Empire.

But, in the ‘crisis’ you're referring to, Bulgaria was on the brink of defeating the Ottomans. In the First Balkan War, at least, the Bulgarians looked to be the strongest Balkan Power. Possession of Constantinople and the Staits would only enhance that power.
 

elkarlo

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At the time the 'Slavic' Bulgarians had shifted their alliance/aignment to Austria-Hungary. The Russian foreign office feared this link would give the Austrians control of Constantinople by proxy. They hoped the British aligned Ottomans would be a safer custodian. the book 'Sleep Walkers' on the origins of the Great War devotes multiple chapters to the snake pit of Balkans politics & how the Russians like everyone else lost control of the region and created explosive witches brew.
I agree and let me add, they couldn't take it from orthodox Bulgaria, but they could take it from the ottomans. So by letting the turks keep it, they were betting they could eventually conquer the second Rome
 

raharris1973

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If they feared they could never pry the straits from Bulgaria, it is surprising they were not freaked out by the Dardanelles expedition which would have seen British and French troops controlling the straits if those powers had won as expected. But Russia was totally acquiescent to the Dardanelles operation, trusting the Western Allies to keep their word.
 
When you have an enemy with their hands around your throat, you let your friends pry them off. Letting the Russians into the Med was accepted with the French granting basing rights at Bizerte and the Brits sounding out Greece for a swap of Cyprus for Argostoli as the problem was no longer Russia but A-H. Letting Russia have the straits would be an advantage.
 

raharris1973

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I wonder if the Western Allies could have salvaged the Gallipolli expedition by offering Bulgaria Thrace in return for tactical cooperation, and if, after their Great Retreat, the Russians would have put up with that?
 
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