Well, I hope the P13 fails the troop trials.
Twice what they had in 1914, IIRC.
Why the Chinese play cricket (The Pax Imperialis)
- Thread starter Miss Construction
- Start date
The P13 will be interesting ITTL
Yep, the British have a greater appreciation of automatic fire ITTL. Nowhere near enough, but a little better. They already have LMGs too
Driftless
Donor
Madsen LMG's for the cavalry, correct? After the lessons learned in fights with the Boers, the cavalry gets used more like mounted infantry?
Yes the Madsen. It's a very good, if expensive LMG. It may get supplemented and eventually replaced by the Lewis, but for now it's the British LMG. And yes, the British have learnt, and their cavalry is mounted infantry. They've even raised a regiment of MI as part of the infantry. The sabres and lances will officially get dropped in 1913.
Now having I think sorted the ships, on to the Portuguese. A Portuguese civil war will certainly make things interesting, especially with the Great War round the corner. I think however, a civil war is even less in anyone's interests. But I think I will run with a civil war for now.
Technically they did have a quasi-mini-sorta civil war. Just was quick. Plus i could see the British wanting to keep Portugal and via that Spain, same witht he French and Centrals. Every conflict with a slight variation will draw attention from the other powers. Like you have the Chinese factions being supported by the British and Japanese, most likely meaning they wont be as buddy buddy in this WW1 like otl
that treaty of alliance of Britons, French and Russians is public, because if it is it should change the German war plans totally true. in the first war the Germans believed that the British would not jump to war for Belgium, here the Germans know that if there is a war they will fight with Russia, France and England.
The Entente was public in the OTL and ITTL it's weaker. How and when the war breaks out will be quite different though. It will happen earlier.
Portugal is really a bit too far for the CP to do anything useful with. But keeping them neutral is definitely in their interests.
And oh yeah, the Anglo-Japanese alliance is not going to last. It'll be gone before the 20s and will turn septic quickly. Hence the subtitle
1910-12
~1910-1912: That last summer
January 1910: Seeking to modernise their fleet, the Ottomans purchase two obsolete pre dreadnought battleships from Germany sparking a naval arms race in the region.
March 1910: Having consolidated their power in Southern China (Xinjiang, Qinghai, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guzhou, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi and Fujian provinces), the Qing institute a series of educational and structural reforms intended to lay the foundations for the modernisation of China.
May 1910: King Edward VII dies and is succeeded by George V.
May 1910: The Qing government orders two small training cruisers from British yards as the basis for a navy. The port if Foochow is to be developed as a naval base with British assistance.
May 1910: The Canadian government authorises the expansion of the RCN. Three further cruisers and six destroyers are to be built in Canadian yards.
May 1910: The Cape Colony, Natal, Orange River Colony, Transvaal and Southern Rhodesia unify as the Union of South Africa. The former Boer commander Louis Botha is elected as its first Prime Minister.
June 1910: The West Indies tour Canada, marking their arrival on the test cricket circuit.
June 1910: In response to the Ottoman purchase of the two German ships, the Greeks purchase an armoured cruiser under construction in Italy.
July 1910: The German Army orders an experimental 42cm seige howitzer designed to destroy modern fortifications. A second will be ordered in February of 1911.
August 1910: Japan formally annexes Korea, transforming it into a colony.
August 1910: The British begin the development of an improved infantry rifle to replace the SMLE Mk III.
September 1910: In response to the growing tensions in Europe, the three remaining single battalion cavalry regiments (the Royal Horse Guards, King's Horse formerly the 1st Dragoon Guards and the Royal Dragoons) each have a second battalion raised. The Motor Corp is also increased to a battalion of armoured cars and one of motorised infantry, both of four companies.
October 1910: In response to the the Brazilian acquisition of two dreadnoughts, the Argentineans order two dreadnoughts from the US.
October 1910: A coup by republicans liberals in Portugal topples King Manuel II. Manuel accepts a British offer of exile as they recognise the new republican government.
November 1910: President Profirio Diaz is returned as Mexican President in blatantly rigged election. His opponent Francisco Madero flees to the US. This event will spark a decade long revolution in Mexico.
January 1911: Lloyd George wins a landslide victory and the Conservatives unite with the Unionists to form the Conservative Unionists.
February 1911: Yuan Shikai's Yao regime enlists Japanese assistance in reforming the Yao army after the defeat at Yuzhong.
March 1911: Devolution comes into effect. There is widespread sectarian violence in both Ulster and Ireland. The Irish nationalists have split into three factions, the Federalists who want to work within the new system, the Nationalists who wish to continue pushing for full Dominion status and the Republicans who call for full independence. Despite forming a majority, the Nationalists and Republicans are unable to unite and split the vote, allowing the Federalists under William O'Brien to win a plurality and form a coalition government with the Southern Unionists.
March 1911: With devolution, violence breaks out both in Ulster and Ireland. Lloyd George attempts to remain aloof, allowing the local authorities to deal with the situation. But as violence continues calls for Westminster intervention grow louder. A meeting is held in Galway, which the Republicans boycott. Lloyd George firmly sticks to his position that it a matter for local government. Eventually it is agreed that troops will be deployed to restore order, but only at the request and under the direction of local government. This will become know as the Galway Doctrine, establishing local unrest should be dealt with at the local level. However, the violence continues for several months before a tense calm is established. The compromise however, drives the Republicans further toward a hard line.
May 1911: Mexican revolutionaries force President Diaz into exile.
April 1911: The British commission two gunboats to protect the rail ferries on Lake Tanganyika.
June 1911: In an attempt to gain naval dominance in the region, the Ottomans order a Konig class battleship, the Rasediya, from German yards. This further fuels the naval arms race in the region.
June 1911: The Brazilians order a third dreadnought, the Rio de Janeiro from Britain.
July 1911: An attempted counter-coup by Portuguese monarchists fails when former King Manuel refuses to give his support to anything other than constitutional means to restore the monarchy. As a result many Portuguese monarchists move their support to a rival claimant, Duke Miguel of Braganza, backed by Germany and Austria-Hungary.
July 1911: The Italians invade Libya. The Italians are quickly victorious in the short war.
August 1911: With the South American dreadnought race now in full swing, the Chileans order two dreadnoughts from British yards.
11th September 1911: French chief of staff General Joseph Joffre revises Plan XVI increasing the number if troops on the Belgium border and preparing for an offensive war in Belgium while standing on the defensive on the German frontier.
September 1911: The Qing adopt the SMLE Mk III as their standard infantry rifle, beginning production of a licensed copy.
October 1911: Francisco Madero is elected President of Mexico. He will prove highly inexperienced, alienating both radicals and conservatives.
November 1911: The War Office and Admiralty are merged into a single Ministry of Defence as a cost cutting measure.
January 1912: A revolt against Ottoman rule begins in Albania.
January 1912: The French government agrees their army may enter Belgium in the event of war, but only in the event Germany does so first.
January 1912: The Greek government orders the battleship Salamis from the US to counter the Ottoman Rasediya. As an interim measure they acquire the Brazilian Rio de Janeiro under construction in Britain as the Kulkis. The Brazilians begin planning a new, even larger ship, to replace her.
February 1912: Concerned about the growing unrest in Mexico, US President William Taft imposes an embargo on US arms exports to Mexico.
April 1912: The liner Titanic strikes an iceberg on her maiden voyage and sinks with great loss of life, with the Californian, the first ship on the scene only arriving half an hour after she has sunk. The sinking will result in far reaching changes to maritime safety regulations.
May 1912: The Balkans nations of Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro and Serbia reform the Balkans League to drive the Ottoman Empire out of Europe.
May 1912: The Greek acquisition of two battleships provokes the Ottomans to order a second Konig class ship, the Fatih Sultan Mehmed, from Germany.
June 1912: The ever increasing cost to Germany of the naval arms race with Britain has become unbearable in light of the need to face both France and Russia. The Germans hold talks with British Defence Secretary Herbert Asquith. The talks however founder over German demands that a naval building holiday by tied to a British guarantee of neutrality in any war. Nonetheless, Germany greatly reduces its building program regardless of the lack of agreement.
June 1912: Dissatisfied with the conservative nature of President Howard Taft, former US president Theodore Roosevelt splits from the Republican party to form the Progressive party.
July 1912: The Melbourne Imperial Conference accepts a full Imperial customs union. The Imperial federation movement now has solid popular support throughout the Empire, with significant opposition remaining only in South Africa. In light of the clear reduction of the German naval building program, the conference agrees to begin disengaging from Europe.
July 1912: The Emperor Meiji dies and is succeed by his son Taisho. The Emperor's weakness ushers in a series of liberal and democratic reforms in Japan.
August 1912: With the Amazon rubber boom collapsing due to competition from rubber plantations in Malaya, the Brazilians abandon plans for their third dreadnought bringing an end to the South American dreadnought race.
August 1912: Portuguese monarchists, with German backing, attempt to overthrow the Republic and place the Duke of Braganza on the throne. Former King Manuel condemns the attempt but the monarchist gain control of northern Portugal, starting the Portuguese Civil War.
August 1912: The Canadian government of Borden expands its earlier naval program, adding a battlecruiser to be built in British yards.
September 1912: An improved version of the Maxim MG, the Vickers MG, is introduced to British service. Four guns are to be issued to each infantry battalion.
October 1912: Roosevelt survives an assassination attempt. increasing his popular support.
November 1912: The Germans begin supplying the Monarchist faction in the Portuguese Civil War.
November 1912: The US presidential elections are an unprecedented three way contest between the democrat Woodrow Wilson, Republican Taft and Progressive Roosevelt. The lack of growth in the US economy, caused slow fall off of British investment over the last three decades has lead to public dissatisfaction with the established two party system. Thus the elections result in no candidate gaining a majority in the electoral college, though Wilson and Roosevelt have a clear lead over Taft. Roosevelt is finally selected in a close house vote.
December 1912: A new British service rifle chambered for a 0.276" magnum round and using a Mauser action is selected for troop trials as the Pattern 13 rifle and limited production of 5,000 rifles is begun.
January 1910: Seeking to modernise their fleet, the Ottomans purchase two obsolete pre dreadnought battleships from Germany sparking a naval arms race in the region.
March 1910: Having consolidated their power in Southern China (Xinjiang, Qinghai, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guzhou, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi and Fujian provinces), the Qing institute a series of educational and structural reforms intended to lay the foundations for the modernisation of China.
May 1910: King Edward VII dies and is succeeded by George V.
May 1910: The Qing government orders two small training cruisers from British yards as the basis for a navy. The port if Foochow is to be developed as a naval base with British assistance.
May 1910: The Canadian government authorises the expansion of the RCN. Three further cruisers and six destroyers are to be built in Canadian yards.
May 1910: The Cape Colony, Natal, Orange River Colony, Transvaal and Southern Rhodesia unify as the Union of South Africa. The former Boer commander Louis Botha is elected as its first Prime Minister.
June 1910: The West Indies tour Canada, marking their arrival on the test cricket circuit.
June 1910: In response to the Ottoman purchase of the two German ships, the Greeks purchase an armoured cruiser under construction in Italy.
July 1910: The German Army orders an experimental 42cm seige howitzer designed to destroy modern fortifications. A second will be ordered in February of 1911.
August 1910: Japan formally annexes Korea, transforming it into a colony.
August 1910: The British begin the development of an improved infantry rifle to replace the SMLE Mk III.
September 1910: In response to the growing tensions in Europe, the three remaining single battalion cavalry regiments (the Royal Horse Guards, King's Horse formerly the 1st Dragoon Guards and the Royal Dragoons) each have a second battalion raised. The Motor Corp is also increased to a battalion of armoured cars and one of motorised infantry, both of four companies.
October 1910: In response to the the Brazilian acquisition of two dreadnoughts, the Argentineans order two dreadnoughts from the US.
October 1910: A coup by republicans liberals in Portugal topples King Manuel II. Manuel accepts a British offer of exile as they recognise the new republican government.
November 1910: President Profirio Diaz is returned as Mexican President in blatantly rigged election. His opponent Francisco Madero flees to the US. This event will spark a decade long revolution in Mexico.
January 1911: Lloyd George wins a landslide victory and the Conservatives unite with the Unionists to form the Conservative Unionists.
February 1911: Yuan Shikai's Yao regime enlists Japanese assistance in reforming the Yao army after the defeat at Yuzhong.
March 1911: Devolution comes into effect. There is widespread sectarian violence in both Ulster and Ireland. The Irish nationalists have split into three factions, the Federalists who want to work within the new system, the Nationalists who wish to continue pushing for full Dominion status and the Republicans who call for full independence. Despite forming a majority, the Nationalists and Republicans are unable to unite and split the vote, allowing the Federalists under William O'Brien to win a plurality and form a coalition government with the Southern Unionists.
March 1911: With devolution, violence breaks out both in Ulster and Ireland. Lloyd George attempts to remain aloof, allowing the local authorities to deal with the situation. But as violence continues calls for Westminster intervention grow louder. A meeting is held in Galway, which the Republicans boycott. Lloyd George firmly sticks to his position that it a matter for local government. Eventually it is agreed that troops will be deployed to restore order, but only at the request and under the direction of local government. This will become know as the Galway Doctrine, establishing local unrest should be dealt with at the local level. However, the violence continues for several months before a tense calm is established. The compromise however, drives the Republicans further toward a hard line.
May 1911: Mexican revolutionaries force President Diaz into exile.
April 1911: The British commission two gunboats to protect the rail ferries on Lake Tanganyika.
June 1911: In an attempt to gain naval dominance in the region, the Ottomans order a Konig class battleship, the Rasediya, from German yards. This further fuels the naval arms race in the region.
June 1911: The Brazilians order a third dreadnought, the Rio de Janeiro from Britain.
July 1911: An attempted counter-coup by Portuguese monarchists fails when former King Manuel refuses to give his support to anything other than constitutional means to restore the monarchy. As a result many Portuguese monarchists move their support to a rival claimant, Duke Miguel of Braganza, backed by Germany and Austria-Hungary.
July 1911: The Italians invade Libya. The Italians are quickly victorious in the short war.
August 1911: With the South American dreadnought race now in full swing, the Chileans order two dreadnoughts from British yards.
11th September 1911: French chief of staff General Joseph Joffre revises Plan XVI increasing the number if troops on the Belgium border and preparing for an offensive war in Belgium while standing on the defensive on the German frontier.
September 1911: The Qing adopt the SMLE Mk III as their standard infantry rifle, beginning production of a licensed copy.
October 1911: Francisco Madero is elected President of Mexico. He will prove highly inexperienced, alienating both radicals and conservatives.
November 1911: The War Office and Admiralty are merged into a single Ministry of Defence as a cost cutting measure.
January 1912: A revolt against Ottoman rule begins in Albania.
January 1912: The French government agrees their army may enter Belgium in the event of war, but only in the event Germany does so first.
January 1912: The Greek government orders the battleship Salamis from the US to counter the Ottoman Rasediya. As an interim measure they acquire the Brazilian Rio de Janeiro under construction in Britain as the Kulkis. The Brazilians begin planning a new, even larger ship, to replace her.
February 1912: Concerned about the growing unrest in Mexico, US President William Taft imposes an embargo on US arms exports to Mexico.
April 1912: The liner Titanic strikes an iceberg on her maiden voyage and sinks with great loss of life, with the Californian, the first ship on the scene only arriving half an hour after she has sunk. The sinking will result in far reaching changes to maritime safety regulations.
May 1912: The Balkans nations of Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro and Serbia reform the Balkans League to drive the Ottoman Empire out of Europe.
May 1912: The Greek acquisition of two battleships provokes the Ottomans to order a second Konig class ship, the Fatih Sultan Mehmed, from Germany.
June 1912: The ever increasing cost to Germany of the naval arms race with Britain has become unbearable in light of the need to face both France and Russia. The Germans hold talks with British Defence Secretary Herbert Asquith. The talks however founder over German demands that a naval building holiday by tied to a British guarantee of neutrality in any war. Nonetheless, Germany greatly reduces its building program regardless of the lack of agreement.
June 1912: Dissatisfied with the conservative nature of President Howard Taft, former US president Theodore Roosevelt splits from the Republican party to form the Progressive party.
July 1912: The Melbourne Imperial Conference accepts a full Imperial customs union. The Imperial federation movement now has solid popular support throughout the Empire, with significant opposition remaining only in South Africa. In light of the clear reduction of the German naval building program, the conference agrees to begin disengaging from Europe.
July 1912: The Emperor Meiji dies and is succeed by his son Taisho. The Emperor's weakness ushers in a series of liberal and democratic reforms in Japan.
August 1912: With the Amazon rubber boom collapsing due to competition from rubber plantations in Malaya, the Brazilians abandon plans for their third dreadnought bringing an end to the South American dreadnought race.
August 1912: Portuguese monarchists, with German backing, attempt to overthrow the Republic and place the Duke of Braganza on the throne. Former King Manuel condemns the attempt but the monarchist gain control of northern Portugal, starting the Portuguese Civil War.
August 1912: The Canadian government of Borden expands its earlier naval program, adding a battlecruiser to be built in British yards.
September 1912: An improved version of the Maxim MG, the Vickers MG, is introduced to British service. Four guns are to be issued to each infantry battalion.
October 1912: Roosevelt survives an assassination attempt. increasing his popular support.
November 1912: The Germans begin supplying the Monarchist faction in the Portuguese Civil War.
November 1912: The US presidential elections are an unprecedented three way contest between the democrat Woodrow Wilson, Republican Taft and Progressive Roosevelt. The lack of growth in the US economy, caused slow fall off of British investment over the last three decades has lead to public dissatisfaction with the established two party system. Thus the elections result in no candidate gaining a majority in the electoral college, though Wilson and Roosevelt have a clear lead over Taft. Roosevelt is finally selected in a close house vote.
December 1912: A new British service rifle chambered for a 0.276" magnum round and using a Mauser action is selected for troop trials as the Pattern 13 rifle and limited production of 5,000 rifles is begun.
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A third revised version of 1910-12, changes to the Portuguese revolution. And the Greek and Turkish ships.
~1913: An unfortunate spring
January 1913: Yao Chinese forces under Cai E attempt to drive the Qing from Jiangxi province. The initial attack is successful, forcing the Qing to fall back to Nanchung.
February 1913: To counter German support of the Portuguese Monarchists, the British begin supplying the Republican faction.
March 1913: The Balkans League, with Russian backing, begins preparing for a war with the Ottoman Empire.
April 1913: Germany and Austria-Hungary begin to pressure the Balkan League to avert their invasion of the Ottoman's European territory.
April 1913: The Balkans League mobilises for an attack on the Ottomans. Austria-Hungary and Germany respond threatening intervention if the attack goes ahead.
April 1913: The Yao drive into Jiangxi province is halted at the Battle of Royang Hu.
May 1913: Russia guarantees support for the Balkans League in the event of Great Power intervention in their attack on the Ottomans.
May 1913: President Madero of Mexico is deposed in a coup by General Victoriano Huerta. The violence of the Mexican Revolution quickly resumes as Huerta establishes a brutal dictatorship.
May 1913: Using the ongoing revolt in Albania as a pretext, the Balkans League declares war on the Ottoman Empire. Austria-Hungary and Germany issue an ultimatum giving the League nations one week to withdraw from Ottoman territory.
May 1913: The poorly deployed Ottoman army begins to fall back in the face of the concerted Balkans League attack.
May 1913: Russia orders a general mobilisation to support the Balkans League. This triggers Austria-Hungary and Germany to mobilise, which in turn forces the French to mobilise.
May 1913: The Serbia begin moving troops from the Macedonian front to face a potential Austro-Hungarian attack. This allows the Ottomans a respite to form a defensive line.
May 1913: Austria-Hungary declares war on the Balkan League nations. The war rapidly spreads with France, Germany and Russia all entering within a few days. The British cabinet meets to discuss the growing crisis. After fierce debate, the cabinet issues a demand all parties respect Belgium neutrality.
June 1913: Belgium rejects a German demand to allow their troops free passage across the country. Germany invades the next day, a few hours later French troops enter the country to counter this without consulting the Belgium government. The British government strongly protests, demanding both France and Germany immediately withdraw. Both refuse, stating they will withdraw when the other does. The cabinet debates entering the war but decides to delay any decision until the Dominion leaders can be consulted at the Cardiff Imperial Conference scheduled for July.
June 1913: Germany besieges the fortresses of Leige and Namur while the Belgium government grudgingly accepts the French moves as support. German heavy artillery rapidly destroys the fortresses.
June 1913: The Austro-Hungarians launch an offensive into Russian Poland.
June 1913: The US declares its neutrality in the European war.
June 1913: The German High Seas Fleet begins shelling the Belgium coast.
June 1913: Russian troops enter East Prussia. The Germans fall back in the face of the Russians
June 1913: German surface raiders begin attacking French merchant shipping.
June 1913: Acting on his own initiative, General Maximilian von Prittwitz commanding German 8th Army orders a counter attack against the advancing Russians. Attempting to destroy the Russian First and Second Armies in detail, he is caught in the flank by the Second Army under General Aleksei Brusilov and defeated with heavy losses. Von Prittwitz orders a general retreat in the face of the Russians.
July 1913: The initial Austro-Hungarian attack into Serbia is repulsed with heavy casualties.
July 1913: The Austro-Hungarians are routed in Poland and the Russians begin to advance through Galicia.
July 1913: The German battleship Kaiser is sunk by a French submarine off the Belgium coast. As a result, the High Seas Fleet is withdrawn from coastal bombardment.
July 1913: The German Fifth Army under Crown Prince Wilhelm is redeployed to the east as a result of the Russian success in East Prussia and Galicia.
July 1913: The French and Belgians are forced back in Belgium. The French suffer massive casualties as their offensive doctrine leads to repeated frontal attacks on German positions.
July 1913: The Cardiff Conference debates entering the now six week old war. New Zealand Prime Minister William Massey, supported by Imperial Chief of Staff Lord Kitchener, convinces the Conference that contrary to popular opinion the war will not be short. The decision is to issue the strongest diplomatic warning that Belgium independence must be maintained but otherwise declare neutrality. Both the France and Germany immediately agree to ensure Belgium remains independent at the end of hostilities.
August 1913: The Russians secure Galicia and the Austro-Hungarians fall back to the Carpathian mountains.
August 1913: The Serbs dig in establishing a solid defensive position outside Belgrade.
August 1913: The arrival of the Fifth Army allows the Germans to halt the Russian advance in East Prussia on the Vistula
August 1913: With the outbreak of the Great War and associated concerns regarding British involvement, the development of the Pattern 13 rifle is halted. However development is begun on a new version of the SMLE incorporating some of the new rifle's features.
August 1913: The Russians launch an offensive against the Ottomans in the Caucasus.
September 1913: The withdrawal of the Fifth Army allows the French to stabilise the western front on a line running from Ghent, along the Schelde to Cambrai, then to a line from Reims to Verdun and the German border.
September 1913: A renewed Austro-Hungarian offensive in Serbia again fails to dislodge the Serbs from Belgrade.
October 1913: The Austro-Hungarians launch an offensive in the Carpathians aimed at retaking Galicia.
October 1913: The Ottoman army is routed by the combined Balkans League forces forcing them to abandon Albania and Macedonia.
November 1913: The French launch an offensive in Aisne. The offensive will drag on until December, gaining little ground but inflicting heavy casualties on both sides.
November 1913: The British change the terms of the Territorial army's service to allow it to be deployed overseas in the event of a war and authorises the creation of an additional three territorial divisions.
December 1913: The Austro-Hungarian offensive in the Carpathians is finally called off having failed to dislodge the Russians from their positions.
December 1913: Sun Yat-sen becomes Prime Minister of Qing China after defeating Cen Chunxuan in third democratic elections. He begins to reduce the influence of the Emperor on government.
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Tbh without the OTL Blakan Wars here, Serbia wouldn't be able to deal with the Austro-Hungarian advance. Alot of the Serbian strength came from the training and lessons of the Balkan wars, which allowed them to have one of the best forces at the time. Without those lessons, I don't see them stalling the Austro-Hungarians much.
Possibly, definitely may be over estimating the Serbs strength. However there is still the "Potiorek was an incompetent" factor. But, yes the Balkans campaign needs work.
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Driftless
Donor
What's your read on diplomatic relations between Teddy Roosevelt and the combatants - especially the German's in this universe? The historic Entente effectively soured US public opinion about the German military following the sack of Belgium in 1914; and over time, feelings and events went downhill from there. Preceeding the historic War, the US had extensive economic, cultural, and diplomatic ties with Germany, Britain, and France; and got on well diplomatically with Tsarist Russia
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At this point the biggest change is the British are currently sitting it out. This in itself makes the war virtually unrecognisable. For starters, the naval balance is reversed so no blockade on Germany. You also have a solid Balkans bloc, with everyone except the Romanians already in against the CP. The world has veered radically.
My reading of Roosevelt is far more hawkish than Wilson. You can probably expect a US military build up (well in as much as a pre Great War US can build up). Plus Germany has not yet been shut out of US markets. You can expect them to place war orders there. This in itself will keep pro German sentiment in the US significantly higher than the OTL.
Driftless
Donor
If US markets remain open to Germany and no British blockade, that puts Unrestricted Submarine Warfare on the back burner. That in turn, should reduce flash-points between those three countries. Still, other events can cause problems...
I think you're correct on Teddy being more hawkish. If events in Mexico, the Caribbean, or Central America flare up; Teddy will push for a heftier US involvement - just to give the military a "test drive"