Miss C's Design Notes #2 – The issue with India
This originally was something I posted in the third Iteration of this TL as I was retiring it it. At the time, it was just my reflections on my efforts thus far. I'm putting them here just on the off chance anyone who's only started following the TL in this latest iteration has the opportunity to see how truly badly I can attempt to construct a timeliine. Those who have migrated from the third iteration have already the chance to see my embarrassing early efforts. I do sometimes wonder if there's anybody still here who came in on my very first attempt. If there is, thank you very much for sticking with it during my floundering early attempts to construct a timeline. I know regard them as a learning experience. Trial and error does seem to have improved my work.
But after writing that, I thought I might mention something which has been troubling me about the TL for the past few days. In truth there are a few things on my mind with the TL, but this is the most important. I'll see how the word count goes if can bring up any others. It's about India. India is really the most critical element in the success or failure of any attempt at an Imperial Federation. There are, I think, two of reasons for this. The most obvious is the sheer muscle it bring to such a federation. This is so clear I don't think much needs to be said about it. Hundreds of millions of people, vast natural resources, a well established educated class and its immense potential for development. Not an exaggeration to say India is any federations hinterland. There was a reason it was called the Jewel in the Imperial crown.
To lose India would fatally wound an Imperial federation, leaving no chance for recovery. Of course not underestimating how much damage the loss of the Home Islands or any of the Dominions would cause. Even the seemingly poor relation New Zealand has a potential strategic importance most don't realise. Little isolated kiwiland currently produces enough food to feed 45-50 million people, and we're not even breaking a sweat. I've seen estimates as high as 200-250 million if we put our mind to it. Plus we're virtually immune to any attack short of a nuclear one.
But India alone, its loss would doom any such federation. Just as it did the British Empire. Yes, I know there were a lot lot of other factors at play at the time, at the time, but with India there could have been some kind of Imperial recovery. From my understanding, the Raj never ran in the red. The Empire would have been greatly reduced, that the Dominions were no longer willing to play dutiful junior partners couldn't be changed, but as long as India was part of it, some form of Empire could be retained. But it's not just India's muscle which is so vital to an Imperial federation.
I mentioned a second reason why India is so critical. I think its even more important than India's muscle. I'm pretty sure if India was lost before the hammer blows of two Worlds Wars, plus Britain and the Dominions were already seriously committed to Imperial federation at the time, an Imperail federation could have survived for some considerable time. Nevertheless, the second reason will ultimately doom it. To understand take a globe and look at the Americas. They are a very effective barrier to movement between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The way our maps are laid out actually makes sense, the Americas effectively create an edge. Panama and Cape Horn are easily blocked, so you can not rely on getting passed the Americas.
So now layout a traditional flat map. Take away India and the Empire is divided into two very distinct groups. You have Australia, New Zealand and the Asian colonies in one group. The home islands, Africa and Canada in the other. Though Canada is sort out on its own. I'm pretty sure these two groups will inevitable develop very different and incompatible geopolitical outlooks and identities. Sooner or later the Imperial federation will split in two due to these differences. From there it's all down hill. Canada will eventually fall into the US sphere, The Asian-Pacific half isn't big enough to support itself. And the rump British African half will probably go down the path of the French Empire. Without India, Empire or Federation, it's doomed. India is the heartland of the Empire in more than one way.
Sign, this has turned into another of my rambles. And I haven't even got to what's on my mind yet. Though I do think it worthwhile explaining why I see India as so vital to any Imperial federation. But what's on my mind. You can't keep India as the Raj indefinitely. In fact I believe if you start in 1870 as I have, you have maybe 50 or 60 years until India is on a clear path to some kind of Dominion status, possibly less. I've gone with 50. To bring India in, you have to overcome two issues. First you need sufficient Indian people who are invested in the federation to take over from the British and run it, I figure maybe 10% of population, but that could be a high estimate. This is my educated highly Anglicised middle and upper class of Indians I take such pains creating. Not too hard to achieve but you have to deal with British racism and the legacy of the Indian Rebellion, which casts a very long shadow of mistrust. But as I said, well within the realms of possibility.
It's the second issue which is the tricky one. You very simply can not bring India in as a single Dominion. The British and the European Dominions will be terrified of being swamped in their own Empire by sheer weight of numbers. And they'd very probably be right. So you have to break it up into multiple Dominions. In the third iteration I went with seven. This time I'm going for more, possibly as many as thirty. That's the nine provinces under direct British rule plus the 21 Princely States which maintained their own governments. The other 524 Princely States will be incorporated into a former province. Not only does this further dilute the menace of Indian numbers, it actually seems a more natural and realistic way they'd go about it than the artificially created seven I used last time. The administrative structures are already well established and probably easier to get the Indians to accept it as well because they're familiar with it.
Which, after my ramble, finally brings me to what's on my mind, the problem I think I've seen. You can't make a partition like this work if the Indians aren't willing to go along with it. Even if you force it on them, enough of the new Dominions will cooperate closely enough to bring you right back to the weight of numbers problem. So you need to have a divide and rule policy in place right at the start. Seems easily enough, the British were very good at divide and rule and actually did have such a policy in India. And then you hit the problem, something I totally missed last time. In fact only recognised it a few days ago.
Alongside the divide and rule, the British loved creating a strong centralised colonial administration. They had a very good reason, efficiency and cost effectiveness. The British ran their Empire on a budget, so kind of hard to argue against. And in the case of India, the central administration was particularly lean and efficient. They ran thee entire country with just 1,000 British civil servants. And they were all British, the Indian civil service didn't start admitting Indians until around 1900, even then probably not more than 100. There's a part of me which can't help but admire that. Sure I have to put aside the racism, exploitation and occasional massacre, but to run a country of 3300 million people with just 1,000 bureaucrats in the central government is quite an achievement. Even if you include the Indian army, you're still only adding another 4,000 or so British officers.
This is where the issue arises. Most of the day to day administration was handled at the provincial level, where Indians were involved, quite a few. But the Indians always knew the real power lay with the central government where they were excluded. And they wanted in on that. Virtually the entire focus of early Indian nationalism was to get Indians into the tiny Imperial Civil Service. This where the pan Indian sentiment comes from, that first class example of just how efficiently their country could be run by so few people. It's entirely understandable they wanted to keep that lean efficient bureaucracy after independence. So the problem bothering me is, how do I stop that? Regardless, I'm going to have to dig and rework India yet again.
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This timeline was originally intended to have the Japanese playing cricket. However this timeline is now growing organically as I incorporate the very valuable criticism being given. I might still be able to swing the Japanese around to a gentleman's game, but the focus is now China.
The first iteration was to be frank, total and utter crud. Possibly it's actually an insult to total and utter crud to refer to it as such. It comprised of little more than unrealistic changes to history thrown in heavy handedly to achieve the predetermined result I wanted. I completely ignored the wider implications of these changes as I bulldozed history to produce an all powerful everlasting British Empire. In short it was nothing more than a crudely twisted version of the OTL with the serial numbers filed off. It's PoD was Gladstone forming a more radical cabinet for his second ministry in March 1880. That I never bothered with of the minor detail of why Gladstone did this is perhaps highly indicative of the flaws in this iteration.
The First Iteration
The second iteration was definitely an improvement, however it retained many of the flaws of the first and was still essentially the OTL with the serial numbers filed off. It initially kept the same PoD but as the TL progressed it became clear this was not early enough. Thus I shifted it to the 1870 introduction of the Tenants of landlords (Ireland) Act. Despite the improvements, the TL the fundamental flaw of failing to take account of the wider global implications of the changes occurring in the Empire made it unworkable. Eventually I realised this and abandoned it, rebooting it again.
The Second Iteration
The third iteration was finally a “workable” version of the TL. It retained the PoD from the second but I finally began to consider the wider implications of the changes I was making, removing the OTL with the serial numbers filed off nature of the TL. The TL grew slowly and organically, leading to world radically different from the OTL, almost unrecognisable in fact. I received a great deal of useful constructive criticism from others as the TL progressed. This often led to substantial changes to previous events, requiring frequent rewrites to incorporate these improvements. I was happy with this iteration and work continued for some time. Sadly life intervened and my work slowed and eventually halted for two years. This break has actually proved to be a boon. I frequently intended to resume work on the TL and re-examined it. These re-examinations showed many faults, particularly in the first 50 or so years. Correcting these flaws in the existing work would be impossible. These very early changes will inevitable impact the entire TL, effectively requiring a complete rewrite. One of the most important changes required is actually the PoD, it is far too radical a change. Changing this alone will impact every subsequent event. Hence the reboot.
The Third Iteration
