~May-Aug 1897: Risk theory
May 1897: The Guangxu Emperor has been successful in obtaining yet more funds to restore the Chinese navy after the Sino-Japanese War. While most of the Qing court are calling for further large warships, he chooses to only order another four destroyers from British yards and continue expenditure on improving the Fuzhou and Nantong naval bases. Regardless of this success, he is still unable to muster sufficient support to unify the Qing navy under a single command.
May 1897: The new US President William McKinley elects to follow his predecessor Cleveland's policy of attempting to improve relations with the British. Concerned by the attempts by France, Germany and Russia to exclude both the US and Britain from China, he suggests a joint approach to combat these efforts. Chamberlain's government is equally concerned over the matter and further suggests working in conjunction with the Japanese, who suffered what they regard as a 'national humiliation' at their hands in the wake of the Sino-Japanese War. McKinley is open to such an approach, though he has reservations regarding Japanese ambitions in China. Despite McKinley's reservations, talks in London between US ambassador John Hay and Foreign Secretary Herbert Asquith will result in the Hay-Asquith Understanding, an informal agreement to coordinate policy on China with the aim of containing French, German and Russian expansion.
May 1897: The arrival of rain has finally ended the 1896 Indian Famine. While relief efforts have not been able to cope the magnitude of the disaster, it is estimated the death toll has been held down to five hundred thousand to one million as against the three to eight million predicted. As it was the first significant test of the effectiveness of the Famine Relief Commission established by the 1879 Famine Relief Act, Secretary of State for India Lord Ripon sets up a Royal Commission under former Viceroy Richard Temple to investigate the effectiveness of the relief effort and to recommend any changes required. The Temple Commission will examine the response in minute detail, taking nearly a year in its investigations.
June 1897: Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz becomes head of the German navy. He immediately sets about implementing his 'Risikoflotte' strategy of building up the German fleet to the point where the British can not contemplate war with Germany without risking sufficient damage to the Royal Navy that would rob them of their naval dominance.
June 1897: During the Spithead Naval Review for Queen Victoria's Diamond Jubilee, the experimental vessel Turbinia will make an unscheduled appearance. She will cause a considerable stir, manoeuvring between the assembled warships at the unheard of speed of 34 knots. The 'demonstration' will lead to the Royal Navy ordering two experimental turbine powered destroyers next year.
June 1897: As part of Queen Victoria's Diamond Jubilee celebrations a Royal Proclamation raising of a Regiment of Irish Foot Guards in recognition of Ireland's long and distinguished history of contribution to the British military is issued. The establishment of the new regiment is to be set at a single battalion, with its cadre drawn from he existing eight Irish regiments. Additionally, as unlike the other historic Irish provinces, Ulster does not have a regiment associated with it, the Royal Irish Rifles are to be renamed the Royal Ulster Rifles to give recognition to the province's contributions.
June 1897: During the celebrations of Queen Victoria's Diamond Jubilee, Foreign Secretary Herbert Asquith conducts secret talks with the Japanese representative Prince Arisugawa Takehito regarding cooperation to contain Russian expansion in Asia. The talks proceed well but produce no firm results beyond a commitment to hold further discussions.
July 1897: The Diamond Jubilee Imperial Conference in London is the first to be attended by a non Imperial state, with Chile sending a delegation as observers, though the Chileans do take part in discussions. The first matters of business are the proposed common Imperial Tariff scheme and the proposed single Imperial merchant ship registry. Regarding the common tariff scheme, while several Dominions do request some alterations, after negotiation it is agreed that the common regime should be adopted. Here the Chilean delegation specifically requests to be included in the intended common tariff zone. After some discussion, and at the prompting of Prime Minister Chamberlain, it is eventually agreed Chile should be allowed to join the Imperial tariff zone. However the matter of a common ship registry meets far more resistance, with the Dominions as yet unwilling to surrender their autonomy on this matter. Nevertheless it is agreed a common set of maritime laws should be established to encourage greater Imperial integration, along with an agreement in principle to work towards the eventual goal of a full Imperial Federation, though no timeline is set.
July 1897: US President McKinley promised in his election to campaign to increase tariffs and return to full protectionism. However he is acutely aware of the effect his 1890 tariff act on the Republican Party's election prospects. In an effort to avoid a similar backlash the Dingley Act will gradually increase tariffs over the next four years, returning them to the levels of McKinley's 1890 act, though it does not repudiate the 2% tariff reduction on Canadian goods under the Gresham-Thompson Treaty.
July 1897: News reaches the outside world of the discovery of gold in the Klondike region of the Yukon Territory in Canada. This will result in a massive influx of prospectors to the undeveloped region. While the Klondike Gold Rush will only last a few years, it will see the start of major development of infrastructure in Alberta, British Colombia and the Yukon Territory.
July 1897: The overwhelming Ottoman victory in the Greco-Ottoman War has led to a upsurge of Islamic unrest in the new Indian province of Pashtunistan. This unrest leads to an uncoordinated but widespread uprising in the province, beginning with the Mohmand tribe around Peshawar.
August 1897: The first two Canadian St Lawrence class destroyers are laid down at Hawthorn Leslie in Britain. The class will displace 450 tons and while only capable of 25 knots, unlike existing British destroyers they will be capable of maintaining their speed in most sea conditions. The second ship, HMCS Skeena will be fitted with Parsons turbines as an experiment to test their suitability.
August 1897: In an effort to deal with the ongoing economic depression, Brazilian Prime Minister Joaquim Nabuco introduces a series of measures to reduce government expenditure. Part of this program will see four battleships and two cruisers decommissioned, while each infantry battalion is reduced from four to three companies, cutting some 2,000 men from the army.
August 1897: Becoming more familiar with the nature of Qing court politics and having gained further allies, the Guangxu Emperor is finally able to get his plan for the establishment of a proper set of service corps for the Chinese army adopted, with the creation of formal medical, ordnance, and supply corps being agreed to. He is also able to establish four military academies, the Guangzhou Imperial Military Academy in Guangdong Province and Zhengzhou Imperial Military Academy in Henan Province patterned after the British Woolwich Military Academy to train officers for the technical branches and the Baoding Imperial Military College in Hebei Province and Kunming Imperial Military College in Yunnan Province to train infantry and cavalry officers, both similar to the Sandhurst Military College. In addition the existing Imperial Naval Academies at Fuzhou and Nantong are to be reformed, with the changes pattered after the Royal Navy's Dartmouth College. He immediately begins attempting to recruit overseas instructors, particularly from Britain, to train the new officer recruits.
