Why no TLs about Ancient Egypt / Ancient Mesopotamia / etc.?

Why is that? Again, where is the proof?

It is prima facie obvious to me, that if I move one way it will cause the air to move a different way than if I had moved differently. The weather, being the large scale movement of air, will thus change since the air is moving differently. Eventually, as the ripples from the POD spread, the changes in the movement in air accumulate to be able to generate larger scale changes.
 
It is prima facie obvious to me, that if I move one way it will cause the air to move a different way than if I had moved differently. The weather, being the large scale movement of air, will thus change since the air is moving differently. Eventually, as the ripples from the POD spread, the changes in the movement in air accumulate to be able to generate larger scale changes.
The response:
But then, to take that and then assert, as Lorenz did, that "a seagull flapping his wings could change the course of weather forever," is crossing the bounds of science and entering into the realm unproven speculation, because he hasn't demonstrated that a seagull flapping his wings has any effect on the weather at all. And even if a seagull flapping his wings could affect the weather, it remains to be proven that this would be more than a local effect. It's a LONG stretch to assert that a butterfly flapping his wings in Central Asia is going to cause a downpour in central Mexico a century or more later which is going to alter the results of a battle there.
In summary, the response is that it has not been proven that it has any effect on the weather, or that it would be more than a local effect.
 
The response:

In summary, the response is to state that it is a long stretch to assume that the the changes of movement in the air will accumulate and spread from large groups of people moving differently, houses being built differently and in different places, etc.

Different cities being built in different places. Different places being burned down in war. Different irrigation paths leading to different temperature differentials in places.

I can't see how these wouldn't aggregate up to large scale changes in global weather.
 
Why is that? Again, where is the proof?

The Butterfly Effect is a hypothesis which by its nature is unprovable, as Thande points out. But lets take the example of an "Alexander the Great lives to a ripe old age" TL and, just for the sake of argument Admiral Papadoupolous of the Third Macedonian Empire arrives in the New World in OTL 1492. why wouldn't he come across Eastern Woodland Indian cultures on the coast he arrives at? Sure, maybe Samoset or Powhattan do not live in that reality but individuals which to our eyes would be practically indistinguishable from them would. In history, I don't believe in action at a distance There has to be a logical causation for an observed major change. Small changes in an undisturbed system are fine, but you have to be able to logically explain major ones to retain believibilty
 
It is prima facie obvious to me, that if I move one way it will cause the air to move a different way than if I had moved differently. The weather, being the large scale movement of air, will thus change since the air is moving differently. Eventually, as the ripples from the POD spread, the changes in the movement in air accumulate to be able to generate larger scale changes.

You're forgetting the effect of gravity and of resistance to the change of air flow by other air molecules (the equal and opposite reaction effect predicted by Newton's Third Law). This can be demonstrated quite simply with a basic experiment. If I pick up a paper fan, for example, and fan the air, the air will be propelled away from the fan. If you are within a certain distance of the fan, you will feel the movement of the air, and scientific instruments for the measurement of air flow will detect the disturbance in the air flow. However, the farther away those air molecules go from their point of origin, the slower they will travel, because they will be encountering resistance by gravity and by other molecules they come in contact with along their path. Eventually, a person (or a very sensitive scientific instrument for measuring the movement of air) will not be able to detect any disturbance at all, because after a certain distance away, the air molecules would be moving slowly enough that the resistance of the molecules through which they are passing will stop them. And small changes in air flow (for example, that made by a person stepping left instead of right, or a person not moving the air anymore by virtue of being deceased) will be quite limited in the range at which they have any effect at all.

Different cities being built in different places. Different places being burned down in war. Different irrigation paths leading to different temperature differentials in places.

I can't see how these wouldn't aggregate up to large scale changes in global weather.

And the mere fact that you stepped to the left instead of to the right will cause all this...how?
 
Last edited:
The Butterfly Effect is a hypothesis which by its nature is unprovable, as Thande points out. But lets take the example of an "Alexander the Great lives to a ripe old age" TL and, just for the sake of argument Admiral Papadoupolous of the Third Macedonian Empire arrives in the New World in OTL 1492. why wouldn't he come across Eastern Woodland Indian cultures on the coast he arrives at? Sure, maybe Samoset or Powhattan do not live in that reality but individuals which to our eyes would be practically indistinguishable from them would. In history, I don't believe in action at a distance There has to be a logical causation for an observed major change. Small changes in an undisturbed system are fine, but you have to be able to logically explain major ones to retain believibilty

Agreed, although quite frankly, I don't see any logical reason why Samoset or Powhattan would be replaced by near identical individuals. Just inserting random minor changes because of the "chaos" produced by the butterfly hypothesis without any logical reason for them is basically, as I said earlier, applying a dose of Handwavium 239 just because you can.

Obviously, this is my own opinion, and I don't expect to convert any of the die-hard believers in the butterfly hypothesis. But in my opinion, such unexplained random changes seriously detract from the believability of a story/timeline.
 
Agreed, although quite frankly, I don't see any logical reason why Samoset or Powhattan would be replaced by near identical individuals. Just inserting random minor changes because of the "chaos" produced by the butterfly hypothesis without any logical reason for them is basically, as I said earlier, applying a dose of Handwavium 239 just because you can.

Obviously, this is my own opinion, and I don't expect to convert any of the die-hard believers in the butterfly hypothesis. But in my opinion, such unexplained random changes seriously detract from the believability of a story/timeline.

I agree completely. For sheer author-reader accessibility, if for no other reason, I would assume that our hypothetical Greek Admiral would indeed meet with OTL Indians, unless there were some compelling reason not to

BTW, I love the Handwavium 239
 
Agreed, although quite frankly, I don't see any logical reason why Samoset or Powhattan would be replaced by near identical individuals. Just inserting random minor changes because of the "chaos" produced by the butterfly hypothesis without any logical reason for them is basically, as I said earlier, applying a dose of Handwavium 239 just because you can.

Obviously, this is my own opinion, and I don't expect to convert any of the die-hard believers in the butterfly hypothesis. But in my opinion, such unexplained random changes seriously detract from the believability of a story/timeline.

It also takes Handwavium to make it exactly the same as OTL with a POD of hundreds of years.

The fact is, it's a matter of opinion either way. Of course the 'handwave it to OTL' option is often easier than the 'assume quantum physics and weather agglomeration will, due to the butterfly effect, change peoples' attitudes, and in addition, different sperm will hit different eggs, and the combination of these effects will lead to changing history in other parts of the world' option, so it's used more.
 
Top