How about a wild card?
Franco convinces Mussolini that Hitler is just going to get himself in deep. This combined with an honest analysis of Italy's actual military capabilities in 1940 causes Italy to stay out of WWII.
Spain, Portugal, Turkey and Italy form a neutral bloc, which also includes the colonies which became Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Spanish Sahara, Libya, Mozambique, Goa, Macao, et at.
In 1944 they enter WWII collectively as associated with the Allied side. Given the sheer weight of numbers, and an Italian military/industry which has had 4 years to advance and develop, they hit hard, overrunning most of the Balkans while finally being stopped just short of Munich. As a result Italy is able to add Albania, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, and Greece to the bloc. Albania also get Kosovo, Macedonia is split four ways and never becomes a nation, Croatia loses nearly half its territory as the foulness of the regime earned no friends. Bulgaria/Romania are particularly delighted to be saved from a Soviet occupation.
The collapse of the German position in the Balkans and battle for Bavaria causes a massive retreat for the Germans. The attempted reorganization after Bagration never happens, with an immediate pullback holding Hungary and Poland west of the Vistula, with a similar retreat to Belgium and the Alsace-Lorraine in the west by July. During this a small cabal of officers led by Count von Stauffenberg assassinates Hitler and other top Nazis.
However, the failiure to kill Himmler leads to German civil conflict and the collapse of all hopes for a negotiated settlement. Despairing, German units in the West begin surrendering en masse and Patton's Third Army enters Berlin in November 1944.
Stalin is furious about losing so much of his anticipated gains, even though both Churchill and FDR have guaranteed an occupation of Germany on terms like OTL, and Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and the Baltic States are still doomed.
The climactic meeting at Yalta in December(sic) between Churchill, FDR, and Stalin ends disastrously. Stalin is determined to have what he wants, and also suggests he may not withdraw from northern Norway and much of Austria. The climactic moment is when FDR suggests a joint ultimatum to force concessions from the bloc.
Churchill not only refuses but goes so far as storm out of Yalta, warning that the British Empire and Commonwealth will not cooperate in any way. When this reaches the public, all hell breaks loose. Fighting actually begins and the Soviets manage some advances when the word arrives.
The explosion at Yalta, combined with Churchill's actions, including a threat to intern several hundred thousand Americans in England, have caused FDR's health to worsen. On January 17, 1945 FDR dies. Vice-President Wallace will use his three day presidency to cause division in the Democratic Party over the next few years(fortunately resisting urges to declare himself 'rightful' president in place of Truman).
Truman takes power on January 20, 1945 and demands a stop to the Soviet advance, cancelling the American withdrawal from German soil east of the intended East/West German border. Stalin is furious but relieved in one sense. The Bloc fielded nearly 150 divisions, properly armed although lacking experience, with the bulk of the armies of Turkey, Spain, and Italy not yet in the Balkans. Although most of Croatia and Romania have fallen, over half a million casualties have been suffered and resistance is only stiffening. At the least, a continuation means the USSR will forfeit any involvment in the Pacific War. There is also the real possibility of setbacks or even losing ground.
TO BE CONTINUED...